What’s the Government Buying with your Money?

Tax time is over for another year for millions of Americans (who didn’t ask for an extension), and as you look over your tax payments for calendar 2016, you’re undoubtedly wondering where those dollars are being spent by Uncle Sam.

The Wall Street Journal recently published a chart which breaks down spending for every $100 of tax receipts—and concludes that the U.S. government is actually a very large insurance company, that also happens to have an army. Chances are, the check or checks that you wrote for the year barely keep the government running for a fraction of a second.

For every $100 you pay in taxes, $23.61 goes to Social Security payments and administration—basically old age insurance for retirees.  Another $15.26 goes to Medicare, the government health insurance program.  Medicaid, the health insurance program for the poor, accounts for another $9.55 of that $100 tax bill—bringing the total costs for various civilian insurance programs to 48% of the total budget.  And that army?  It costs $15.24 of every $100 the government collects in taxes, not counting veterans benefits.

In all, the 2016 federal budget fell $15.24 out of every $100 short of revenues equaling expenses.  Where would you cut?

Things like federal expenditures and grants for education ($2.08), food stamps ($1.89), affordable housing ($1.27) and foreign aid ($1.14) actually make up a very small part of the budget, smaller than interest payments on the national debt ($6.25).

There has been talk about helping reduce the budget by lowering expenditures on the National Endowments for the Arts and Humanities, which together represent eight tenths of one cent of that $100 tax bill.  This would be comparable to someone trying to pay off his mortgage by looking for coins under the sofa cushions.

As for us, we’re just glad that we survived another very busy tax season, with more compliance requirements imposed on preparers and taxpayers than ever before. Tax simplification? Doesn’t seem to ever be in the cards.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other tax or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Source:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-100-of-your-taxes-are-spent-8-cents-on-national-parks-and-15-on-medicare-1492175921

The MoneyGeek thanks guest writer Bob Veres for his contribution to this post

First Quarter 2017 YDFS Market Review

Are we in the early stages of a bear market given that we’ve had over eight years of an up-trending market that may be growing tired? Or are we in the late stages of a bull market—that time when the market suddenly takes off like a rocket for no apparent reason?

Over the last eight years, the S&P 500 stock market index has returned more than 300%. But the tail end of this run (if indeed it’s the tail end) seems to have accelerated the trend.  The first quarter of 2017 provided the highest returns for U.S. large-cap stocks since the last three months of 2013.  The NASDAQ index has booked its 21st record close of the year so far, and the indices have recorded a 30% rise over the past six quarters, marking the fastest advance since 2006.

The first quarter of 2017 has seen the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index—the broadest measure of U.S. stocks—rise 5.72%, while the comparable Russell 3000 index gained 5.91% in the first quarter.

Looking at large cap stocks, the Wilshire U.S. Large Cap index gained 6.01% in the first quarter.  The Russell 1000 large-cap index finished the first quarter with a 6.23% performance, while the widely-quoted S&P 500 index of large company stocks was up 5.53% in the first three months of 2017.

Meanwhile, the Russell Midcap Index gained 5.15% in the first quarter.

As measured by the Wilshire U.S. Small-Cap index, investors in smaller companies posted a relatively modest 2.26% gain over the first three months of the year.  The comparable Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index finished the quarter up 2.20%, while the technology-heavy NASDAQ Composite Index rose 9.83% in the first quarter, continuing its record-breaking climb.

Even the international investments were finally soaring through the start of the year.  The broad-based EAFE index of companies in developed foreign economies gained 6.47% in the first three months of calendar 2017.  In aggregate, European stocks gained 6.74% for the quarter, while EAFE’s Far East Index gained 5.13%.  Emerging market stocks of less developed countries, as represented by the EAFE EM index, rose 11.14%.

Looking over the other investment categories, real estate investments, as measured by the Wilshire U.S. REIT index, eked out a 0.03% gain during the year’s first quarter.  The S&P GSCI index, which measures commodities returns, lost 2.51%, in part due to a 5.81% drop in the S&P crude oil index.  Gold prices shot up 8.64% for the quarter and silver gained 14.18%.

In the bond markets, rates are incrementally rising from practically zero to not much more than zero. Coupon rates on 10-year Treasury bonds now stand at 2.39% a year (otherwise known as the risk-free rate), while 30-year government bond yields have risen to 3.01%.

The pundits on Wall Street have been telling us that the market’s sudden meteoric rise—which really accelerated starting in December of last year—is the result of the so-called “Trump Trade,” shorthand for an expectation that companies and individuals will soon be paying fewer taxes and be burdened by fewer regulations, leading to higher profits and greater overall prosperity.  Add in a trillion dollars of promised infrastructure spending, and the expectation was an economic boom across virtually all sectors.

However, there is, as yet, no sign of that boom; just a continuation of the slow, steady recovery that the U.S. has experienced since 2009.  The latest reports show that the U.S. gross domestic product—a broad measure of economic activity—grew just 1.6% last year, the most sluggish performance since 2011.  The U.S. trade deficit widened in January, and both consumer spending and construction activities are weakening from slower-than-average growth rates.

The good news is that corporate profits increased at an annual rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter, which shows at least incremental improvement.  However, the previous three months saw a 6.7% rise in profits, suggesting that the trend may be downward going forward. Expectations for the first quarter of 2017 earnings are even higher, which would help stretched valuations in many stocks and in the overall market.

It’s possible to read too much into the recent failure of health care legislation, and imagine that we’re in for four years of ineffective leadership.  There will almost certainly be a tax reform debate in Congress in the coming months, but the surprising aspect—as with the healthcare legislation—is that there seems to have been no prepared plan for Congress to vote on.  We know that the Republican President and Congress want to lower corporate tax rates and simplify the tax code—which, in the past, has meant adding thousands of new pages to it.  We know that there is general opposition to any form of estate taxes, but nobody is proposing which deductions would be eliminated in order to make this package revenue-neutral. I have no illusions that tax reform will ultimately amount to any measure of tax simplification (cue the collective sigh from overworked tax preparers).

Similarly, there have been no details about the infrastructure package, which means we don’t know yet whether it would be a budget-busting package of pork barrel projects or a real contribution to America’s global competitiveness.

We can, however, be certain of one thing: as the bull market ages, we are moving ever closer to a period when stock prices will go down, perhaps as dramatically as 20%, which would qualify as a bear market, perhaps more or less.  While bull markets don’t die of old age alone, this is still a good time to ask yourself: how much of a downturn would I be able to stomach either before panic sets in or my lifestyle is endangered?  If your answer is less than 20%, or close to that figure, this might be a good time to revisit your stock and bond allocations. It’s never too soon to trim profits on some positions to lighten exposure and take advantage of any coming sell-off.

On the other hand, if you’re not fearful of a downturn, then you should look at the next bear market the way the most successful investors do, and envision a terrific buying opportunity, a time when stocks go on sale for the first time in the better part of a decade.  For some reason, people go to the shopping mall to buy when items go on sale, and do the opposite when the investment markets go down.  Knowing this can be an unfair advantage to your future wealth, and even make you look forward to the end of this long, unusually steady, increasingly frantic bull run in stocks.  After all, if history is any indication, the next downturn will be followed by another bull run.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Sources:

Wilshire index data: http://www.wilshire.com/Indexes/calculator/

Russell index data: http://www.russell.com/indexes/data/daily_total_returns_us.asp

S&P index data: http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-500/en/us/?indexId=spusa-500-usduf–p-us-l–

Nasdaq index data:

http://quotes.morningstar.com/indexquote/quote.html?t=COMP

http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/indices/nasdaq-total-returns.aspx

International indices: https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search

Commodities index data: http://us.spindices.com/index-family/commodities/sp-gsci

Treasury market rates: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us/

Bond rates:

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/corporate-bonds/

General:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/debate-about-path-for-stock-market-rages-as-dow-rallies-4440-points-in-year-and-a-half-2017-03-31?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-investors-can-learn-to-stop-worrying-and-love-a-stock-market-correction-2017-03-30

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-gdp-idUSKBN1711MX?feedType=RSS&feedName=domesticNews

The MoneyGeek thanks guest writer Bob Veres for his contribution to this post

Are Millennials Risk Averse Savers?

The Millennials are the generation of kids born between the years 1981 and 1997. This year, Millennials will overtake the baby boomers as largest generation in United States history with 75.3 million people.

Millennial Americans are saving their money at a higher rate than their Baby Boomer counterparts at a similar age.  Research from the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies shows that nearly three-quarters of Millennials are saving for retirement at an earlier age than past generations.  Half are putting away 6% of their income or more—a statistic that makes Millennials the best cohort of savers since the Great Depression, despite having to carry record high levels of student loan debt.  Those who participate in their workplace retirement plans are saving 7% a year, on average.

Alas, Millennials are not doing an equally good job of investing.  The research suggests that many younger Americans are frightened and confused by the topic of investing, and keep their money in their bank accounts.  That’s a problem, since low interest rates essentially drop the return on investment to 0% a year.  In the Transamerica survey, 25% of Millennial respondents said they weren’t sure how their retirement savings were invested, and, when they were promoted to check, they reported higher allocations to bonds, money market funds and other low-return investments than their Baby Boomer or Generation X counterparts.

There are a variety of prescriptions for the problem of being under-invested, which is much more easily fixed than bad savings habits.  Millennials need to be educated about investing—a subject which is not taught in high school or college.  They need to become more comfortable with risk, understanding that, although markets do go down from time to time, they have always recovered and beaten their previous highs. There is no shortage of web sites, blogs, books and podcasts available for them to take advantage of to educate themselves at little or no costs. A fee-only financial planner who is a fiduciary can be an invaluable resource to millennials who are skeptical or scared of investing.

If you are a millennial (or even if you aren’t one), and would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Sources:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/arielleoshea/2017/02/21/5-essential-investing-moves-for-millennials/?ss=personalfinance#743c36582ab5

http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Saving-Money/2017/0221/Why-Millennials-are-better-with-their-money-than-their-parents

The MoneyGeek thanks guest writer Bob Veres for his contribution to this post.

How to Find an Old 401(k) Account

Here’s the scenario: You worked for a company sometime in the past and contributed to the 401(k) or 403(b) plan.  When you left the company, you left the funds in the plan, forgot about it, but recently came across an old statement. Excited, you call the plan administrator, assuming that you can figure out who the current administrator is. You’re lucky enough to reach someone and are told that the company’s accounts had been transferred to another plan administrator years ago. You then call the new administrator and are told they also could not find your 401(k) using your social security number or other identifying information. How do you proceed?  What are your options?

A recent Q&A by personal finance columnist Liz Weston tackles this very question.

First off, prepare to make a lot more phone calls.

There’s no central repository for missing 401(k) funds — at least not yet. The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., which safeguards traditional pensions, has proposed rules that would allow it to hold orphaned 401(k) money from plans that have closed. However, that won’t start until 2018. Another proposal, by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), would direct the IRS to set up an online database so workers could find pension and 401(k) benefits from open or closed plans, but Congress has yet to take action on that.

If your balance was less than $5,000 (or was more than that when you left your employer, but the funds somehow declined below that balance due to market performance or fees), your employer could have approved a forced IRA transfer, and the money could be sitting with a financial services firm that accepts small accounts. If the plan was closed and your employer couldn’t find you, the money could have been transferred to an IRA, a bank account or a state escheat office. You can check state escheat offices at Unclaimed.org, the official site of the National Assn. of Unclaimed Property Administrators (NAUPA). NAUPA also endorses the site MissingMoney.com.  Searching for an IRA or bank account may require some additional help.

If your employer still exists, call to find out if anyone knows what happened to your money. If the company is out of business, you may be able to get free help tracking down your money from the U.S. Department of Labor (at askebsa.dol.gov or (866) 444-3272) or from the Pension Rights Center, a nonprofit pension counseling center (pensionrights.org/find-help).  Another place to check is the National Registry of Unclaimed Retirement Benefits, a subsidiary of a private company, called PenChecks, that processes retirement checks, at www.unclaimedretirementbenefits.com.

Your employer or a plan administrator could insist that you cashed in your account at some point. You may be able to prove otherwise if you’ve kept old tax returns, since those typically would show any distributions. Ultimately, you may have to seek legal help if you’re sure that your money is out there somewhere and you’re not getting any results.

If you do find your money, understand that you may still have missed out on a lot of growth. Your investments may have been converted to cash, which has earned next to nothing over the past decade or so, particularly after inflation.

Leaving a 401(k) account in an old employer’s plan can be a convenient option, but only if you’re willing to keep track of the money — and let the administrator know each time you change your address. Your retirement success depends on it.

This shows why it’s important not to lose track of old retirement accounts. Ultimately, your current employer may allow you to transfer old accounts into its plan, or, more preferable, you can roll the money into an IRA. Either way, it’s much better to keep on top of your retirement money than to try to find it years later.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Source: How to track down an old retirement account by Liz Weston

Buying an Inexpensive Credit Score

It’s a classic chicken or egg dilemma: your kids graduate from college and face an immediate problem: they have no credit history, which makes it harder for them to rent an apartment or get a credit card.  But how do they get a credit history without someone granting them credit?  Is there a way the parents can help them without risking their own credit score?

An article on the website Nerdwallet suggests a solution that will cost just $200.  You encourage your child to open a secured credit card, whose credit limit is equal to a deposit that can be as low as $200.  You make the deposit on his/her behalf, and presto!  The cardholder is now able to make small purchases, pay back into the account, and establish a credit score in about six months.  And the transactions weigh more heavily in credit scoring when the adult child is a primary user, rather than an authorized user on the parent’s credit card.  An added advantage: the child receives his/her own separate bill, and becomes accustomed to paying on time.

Credit experts recommend that the child hold spending to 30% or less of the credit limit—which basically means putting no more than $60 on the credit card, and then paying that amount back.  Parents can spring for a higher deposit if they think the adult child will be responsible for making higher payments.

Make sure the new credit card holder understands the interest rates, minimum payment and due date on the statements, and help adult children calculate how long it would take to pay off the balance making only minimum payments.  Better yet, teach them that paying off credit cards in full every month is the only responsible way to handle them. Interest rates tend to be very high, potentially making this inexpensive solution a more expensive one.

Eventually, once the adult child has learned good credit card habits by using a card with training wheels, he or she can transition to an unsecured credit card.  At that point, the secured card can be closed and your deposit returned. And voila! You’ve just helped your young adult move ahead on the road to a better financial future.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Source:

https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/finance/buy-your-kid-good-credit-score/

The MoneyGeek thanks guest writer Bob Veres for his contribution to this post

Regulators to the Rescue?

By now, some of you have received one or more notices from your broker or custodian about changes to your chosen money market fund. What do these changes mean to you?

The world of money market funds changed forever back in 2008, when an investment vehicle called the Reserve Primary Fund loaded up on loan obligations backed by Lehman Brothers.  Lehman famously went under, and the fund “broke the buck,” meaning that when Lehman was unable to pay back its loans, the value of a share of the Reserve Primary Fund dipped under $1.

This was the first time many investors realized that money market funds were not risk-free.  Many panicked, causing a run on other money market instruments, and overall the event added another unhappy twist to the financial crisis.

Fast forward to the near future: October 14, 2016, the date when new protective regulations implemented by the Securities and Exchange Commission, will go into effect.  Yes, the government wheels creak along that slowly.

What regulations?  To make sure that the funds are able to redeem at par ($1 per share), all money market instruments that invest in taxable corporate debt or municipal bonds, and have institutional investors, will have to keep at least 10% of their assets either in cash, U.S. Treasury securities or other securities that will convert to cash within one day (many money market funds make overnight loans to lending institutions in the U.S. and Europe.)

As further safeguards, at least 30% of a money market fund’s assets will have to be liquid within one week, and funds will be restricted from investing more than 3% of their assets in lower-quality second-tier securities.  No more than one-half of one percent of their assets can be invested in second-tier securities issued by any single issuer.  Finally, money market funds will not be allowed to buy second-tier securities that mature in more than 45 days.

What happens if all these safeguards don’t work, and a share of the money market fund still goes below $1?  In those (probably rare) instances, the fund’s board of directors are permitted to suspend your ability to redeem your investment for up to ten days, and under certain circumstances, they may impose a 1% or 2% fee on your redemptions. That’s pretty steep, considering that you’re probably currently receiving less than a 1% return on your money market funds.

The bottom line is that investors will still be able to put $1 into a money market fund and expect to get $1 back out again when they sell shares—with, perhaps, a tiny bit more confidence a few months from now. Just don’t expect these money market funds to keep up with the pace of inflation.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Sources:
http://www.multnomahgroup.com/hubfs/PDF_Files/Webinar_Presentation_Slides/Money_Market_Mutual_Funds_Slides.pdf?t=1439394348032

http://www.bankrate.com/finance/investing/sec-new-rules-for-money-market-funds.aspx
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/07/23/s-e-c-approves-rules-on-money-market-funds/?_r=0

http://www.thesimpledollar.com/best-money-market-account/

http://www.bankrate.com/funnel/money-market-mutual-funds/money-market-mutual-fund-results.aspx?Taxable=true

The MoneyGeek thanks guest writer Bob Veres for his contribution to this post

What’s Going on in the Markets September 9 2016

On Friday September 9 2016, the S&P 500 index fell 2.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.1%.  This was the first “greater than 1%” sell-off since June, its worst single-session loss in more than two months. The drop ended a relatively quiet summer for U.S. stocks, which had touched new highs in mid-August. But despite Friday’s jarring downdraft, market internals remain solid and equity markets are within stones throw of their recent peaks. Of course, the press reports are describing it as a full-blown market panic.

Even if the short-term pullback in stocks persists, we do not believe the longer-term bull market—which has been underway since 2009—is dead. U.S. economic data has generally shown signs of strength, and an improving economy should support the stock market over the long term.

So what’s going on?  Efforts to trace the reason why quick-twitch traders scattered for the hills on Friday turned up two suspects.  The first was Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren, who sits at the table of Fed policy makers who decide when (and how much) to raise the Federal Funds rate.  On Friday, he announced that there was a “reasonable case” for raising interest rates in the U.S. economy.  According to a number of observers, traders had previously believed there was a 12% chance of a September rate hike by the Fed; now, they think there’s a 24% chance that the rates will go up after the Fed’s September 21-22 meeting. Oh the horror of a less than 1 in 4 chance of a quarter-point (0.25%) rise in short-term interest rates–sell everything!

If the Fed decides the economy is healthy enough to sustain another rise in interest rates—from rates that are still at historic lows—why would that be bad for stocks?  Any rise in bond rates would make bond investments more attractive compared with stocks, and therefore might entice some investors to sell stocks and buy bonds.  However, with dividends from the S&P 500 stocks averaging 2.09%, compared with a 1.67% yield from 10-year Treasury bonds, this might not be a money-making trade.

If the possibility of a 0.25% rise in short-term interest rates doesn’t send you into a panic, maybe a pronouncement by bond guru Jeffrey Gundlach, of DoubleLine Capital Management, will make you quiver.  Gundlach’s exact words, which are said to have helped send Friday’s markets into a tailspin, were: “Interest rates have bottomed.  They may not rise in the near term as I’ve talked about for years.  But I think it’s the beginning of something, and you’re supposed to be defensive.” My thoughts on this: pundits have been declaring the end of the bull market in bonds for many years and have been proven wrong time and time again. Statements like this are pretty worthless in my opinion. Could he be right? Sure, there’s a 50/50 chance.

Short-term traders appear to have decided that Gundlach was telling them to retreat to the sidelines, and some have speculated that a small exodus caused automatic program trading—that is, money management algorithms that are programmed to sell stocks whenever they sense that there are others selling.  After the computers had taken the market down by 1%, human investors noticed and began selling as well.

Uncertainty about central bank policy outside the U.S. was another potential cause for Friday’s volatility. On Thursday, the European Central Bank opted for no new easing moves and Japanese bond yields have continued to rise. The two events have sent a message to markets that quantitative easing (bond buying and other monetary stimulus) may have lost some of its efficacy and will not continue indefinitely.

For seasoned investors, a 2% drop after a very long market calm simply means a return to normal volatility.  This is generally good news for investors, because volatility has historically provided more upside than downside, and because these occasional downdrafts provide a chance to add to your stock holdings at bargain prices. I’ve been telling clients all summer long to expect a volatile and rocky September and October. Does that make me smart? Nope, historically, periods of calm like we’ve seen are always followed by volatility. September and October tend to be more volatile than other months of the year.  Markets have been unusually calm this summer, and prolonged periods of low volatility can make markets susceptible to news and rumors. Given the emphasis the market is now placing on Fed policy—and the uncertainty surrounding it—we wouldn’t be surprised to see markets continue to experience volatile swings when news or economic data suggest the Fed may, or may not, raise interest rates.

That doesn’t, of course, mean that we know what will happen when the exchanges open back up on Monday, or whether the trend will be up or down next week or for the remainder of the month.  Nor do we know whether the Fed will raise rates in late September, or how THAT will affect the market.

As for bonds, while rising interest rates can translate into falling bond prices—bond yields typically move inversely to bond prices—it’s important to remember that yields generally don’t move in tandem all along the yield curve. The Fed influences short-term interest rates, but long-term interest rates are generally affected by other factors, such as economic growth and inflation expectations. And even if the Fed does raise short-term interest rates again this year, I would anticipate that future rate hikes would be gradual, as inflation remains low and the U.S. economy is only growing moderately.

That said, periods of market volatility are a good time to review your risk tolerance and make sure your portfolio is aligned with your time horizon and investing goals. A well-diversified portfolio, with a mix of stocks, bonds and cash allocated appropriately based on your goals and risk tolerance, can help you weather periods of market turbulence.

All we can say with certainty is that there have been quite a number of temporary panics during the bull market that started in March 2009, and selling out at any of them would have been a mistake.  You must resist overreacting to swings in the market. Stock market fluctuations are a normal part of investing; panicking and pulling money out of the market may mean missing out on a potential rebound.

The U.S. economy is showing no sign of collapse, job creation is stable and a rise in interest rates from near-negative levels would probably be good for long-term economic growth.  The Institute for Supply Management survey for the manufacturing sector recently showed an unexpected decline, and the service sector moved down by more than economists had expected, so I will be monitoring upcoming survey results closely to see if this develops into a trend. The employment situation remains firm; new job openings hit a record high in July and new claims for unemployment remain near recent lows.

While it may be prudent to trim some profits, panic is seldom a good recipe for making money in the markets, and our best guess is that Friday will prove to have been no exception. Market volatility is unnerving, but it’s a normal—and normally short-lived—part of investing. If you’ve built a solid financial plan and a well-diversified portfolio, it’s best to ignore the noise and focus on your long-term goals.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Sources:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-08/gundlach-says-it-s-time-to-get-defensive-as-rates-may-rise

http://www.forbes.com/sites/laurengensler/2016/09/09/stocks-fall-worst-day-since-brexit/#3a9ed7252961

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-09/split-among-fed-officials-leaves-september-rate-outlook-murky?utm_content=markets&utm

http://thereformedbroker.com/2016/09/09/dow-decline-signals-end-of-western-civilization/?utm

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield

The MoneyGeek thanks guest writer Bob Veres for his contribution to this post