The Next Bailout ?

May 26, 2015 — Sam H. Fawaz

It’s been five years since the newspapers exploded with stories of the Greek debt crisis, which, we were told, threatened the very existence of the Eurozone. Eventually, a variety of bailout packages were negotiated, and things seemed to return to normal.

As it turns out, the current rescue package will run out at the end of June. The European Union finance ministers and leaders of the newly-elected Greek government appear to be far apart in their negotiations on extending the bailout. The European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund and the European Commission have demanded that Greece institute another round of economic reforms, meaning austerity in government spending and services, higher value-added taxes, pension cuts, and a continuing decline in the Greek GDP and standard of living for ordinary citizens. The citizens, naturally, have been reluctant to endure any more pain, and elected leaders from the Syriza Party who ran in opposition to any more austerity, promising instead to cut a better deal, spend more, and generally use Keynesian economic theory to restart the economy. The Greek government recently rehired 4,000 public sector workers in a clear display of independence from the creditor demands.

Greece’s finance minister has agreed to make the next 750 million euro loan repayment to the International Monetary Fund, which staves off immediate default. But there is no question that the country will have to refinance 172 billion euros of debt. No deal means default and, possibly, what people are calling a “Grexit” from the Eurozone. You can expect to suddenly see headlines about the looming “crisis” and once again hear intimate details about the financial situation in Greece. If the negotiations succeed, and Syriza officials win concessions, it could bolster the strong anti-austerity populist movements in Spain, Portugal and Ireland.

Should you be concerned? If you’re holding a private stash of Greek bonds, or are receiving a government pension from the nation, then you should be following these developments closely. If not, then there is nothing about the negotiations which will change the underlying value of European stocks and bonds in most American portfolios. The headlines could cause a temporary stock market sell-off, particularly in the event of a Grexit, but corporate earnings and valuations will ultimately prevail, whether Greece is given a grace period, whether it remains part of the Eurozone—or not.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch.

Sources:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/7f31597a-f4cd-11e4-abb5-00144feab7de.html?ftcamp=published_links%2Frss%2Fhome_us%2Ffeed%2F%2Fproduct#axzz3ZV6PABAZ

 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rj-eskow/13-questions-about-greece_b_6621708.html

 TheMoneyGeek thanks guest writer Bob Veres for writing this post. 

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How Do I Know If My IRA Contributions Are Tax Deductible?

May 18, 2015 — Sam H. Fawaz

Contributions to a traditional IRA are tax deductible if you don’t already participate in an employer-sponsored retirement plan. For 2015, the maximum you can contribute to an IRA is $5,500. If you are age 50 or over, you can make an additional “catch-up contribution” of $1,000.

If you do participate in an employer-sponsored plan, your contributions still can be fully or partially deductible, up to certain income thresholds. For 2015, those limits are between $61,000 and $71,000 for single filers and $98,000 and $118,000 for married couples filing joint returns.

If you are ineligible to make deductible contributions to a traditional IRA, you may want to investigate a Roth IRA. Contributions to a Roth IRA are made with after-tax dollars and are not tax deductible, but distributions are tax free. Be aware that there are income thresholds to contribute to a Roth. For 2015, those limits are between $116,000 and $131,000 for single filers and $183,000 and $193,000 for married couples filing joint returns.

You can find more information on the IRS website.

If you have questions about your current IRA’s or if you would like to discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch.

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The Harm in Financial Journalism

May 10, 2015 — Sam H. Fawaz

In most areas of our lives, the more information you get, and the more up-to-the-minute it is, the better we can conduct business and make astute decisions. It is interesting that investing is one area where the opposite is true.

We’re not talking here about the second-by-second blips on a Bloomberg terminal that traders and computer algorithms use to make quick-twitch buys and sells. We’re talking about the normal news reports, cable TV investment reports, and investing articles that we’re bombarded with on a daily basis. In general, the news and data supplied by consumer journalists is almost always harmful to your financial health.

How? Consider profiles of mutual funds and mutual fund managers. The quarterly profiles in Barron’s and the articles in Money, Kiplinger’s and the Wall Street Journal tend to focus a bright spotlight of attention on the hot funds—that is, funds that outperformed their peers (and the market) in the previous quarter. Three months’ worth of track record is statistical nonsense, but the hot fund manager is interviewed with breathless deference normally given to a certified genius. It is interesting that seldom if ever is the next quarter’s genius the same as the last one. Anyone who invests with the fund of the hour (or quarter) is in grave danger of suffering a regression to the mean—which means losses when compared with the indices.

Even one-year and five-year rankings have no predictive value, particularly when the focus is on outliers who were well ahead of their peers. Meanwhile, when we aren’t reading about hot managers, we’re hearing about what the stock market did (or is doing) today. Today’s price movements are, to a statistician, meaningless white noise, indicative of nothing remotely significant about the future. The markets go up today, down tomorrow, up for a week, down for a week, and during each of these time periods, analysts try to tell us the causes of these random bounces. They would be more productively employed trying to explain the “causes” behind each of the waves in the ocean, yet we can’t help listening to their plausible explanations as to why this earnings report, that jobs report, or some other speculation on what the Federal Reserve Board will or will not do, has affected our investment outlook.

And, of course, at market tops, when new money is chasing returns at the most dangerous possible time, the news reports are telling us how the markets have been going up, up, up. When markets are depressed, and it is the best possible time to put new money to work, the news reports are telling us all the bad news about months of market losses. Swimming against that tide is nearly impossible, even for professionals.

There may be meaningful information among this chatter, but it’s unlikely that most of us will see it amid the noisy background. Back in the late 1990s, one analyst who couldn’t believe how much people were paying for tech stocks, finally broke through the background noise by pointing out that Amazon’s share price had reached approximately the same level as the entire yearly economic output of the nation of Iceland, plus a few 747 cargo jets to carry it all back to the U.S. Of course, few listened, and the bursting tech bubble cost a lot of investors a fortune.

Today, we’re being told that the current market rally is long in the tooth, that the Fed is going to raise rates soon, that market valuations are kind of high, and of course that certain fund managers did really well last quarter and yesterday’s market was up or down. The problem is that we were hearing exactly the same things last year and the year before (remember?), and still the market churns ahead, cranking out new record highs.

Unlike just about any other activity you might pursue, the best, most astute way to invest is to turn off the noise and let the markets carry you where they must. The short-term drops tend to become buying opportunities in the long run, and over time, the U.S. and global economies reflect the underlying growth in value generated by millions of workers who go to work each day and build that value. Investor sentiment will swing around with the unhelpful prodding of journalists and pundits, but people who stay the course have always seen new market highs eventually, while people who react to every positive or negative report tend to fare much less well. When it comes to the markets, wisdom trumps up-to-the-minute knowledge every time.

Maybe somebody should tell that to the journalists.

If you would like to cut through the noise, review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch.

TheMoneyGeek thanks guest writer Bob Veres for writing this post

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Delaying Retirement May Provide the Financial Boost You Need

May 3, 2015 — Sam H. Fawaz

Americans are living longer, healthier lives, and this trend is affecting how they think about and plan for retirement. For instance, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute, the age at which workers expect to retire has been rising slowly over the past couple of decades. In 1991, just 11% of workers expected to retire after age 65. Fast forward to 2014, and that percentage tripled to 33% — and 10% don’t plan to retire at all.1

Working later in life can offer a number of advantages. Many people welcome the opportunity to extend an enjoyable career, maintain professional contacts, and continue to learn new skills.

A Financial Boost

In addition to personal rewards, the financial benefits can go a long way toward helping you live in comfort during your later years. For starters, staying on the job provides the opportunity to continue contributing to your employer-sponsored retirement plan. And if your employer allows you to make catch-up contributions, just a few extra years of saving through your workplace plan could give your retirement nest egg a considerable boost, as the table below indicates.

A Few Extra Years Could Add Up

Year Maximum Annual Contribution Catch-Up Contribution for Workers Age 50 and Older Total Annual
Contributions
2015 $18,000 $6,000 $24,000
2016-2020 Indexed to inflation Indexed to inflation $??,???

Delaying Distributions

In addition to enabling you to continue making contributions to your employer’s plan, delaying retirement may allow you to put off taking distributions until you do hang up your hat. Typically, required minimum distributions (RMDs) are mandated when you reach age 70½, but your employer may permit you to delay withdrawals if you work past that age.

Keep in mind that if you have a traditional IRA, you are required to begin RMDs by age 70½, while a Roth IRA has no distribution requirements during the account holder’s lifetime — a feature that can prove very attractive to individuals who want to keep their IRA intact for a few added years of tax-deferred investment growth or for those who intend to pass the Roth IRA on to beneficiaries.

A Look at Social Security

Your retirement age also has a significant bearing on your Social Security benefit. Although most individuals are eligible for Social Security at age 62, taking benefits at this age permanently reduces your payout by 20% to 30% or more. Waiting until your full retirement age — between 66 and 67 — would allow you to claim your full unreduced benefit. And for each year past your full retirement age you wait to claim benefits, you earn a delayed retirement credit worth 8% annually up until age 70.2 Consider researching your options to continue working past the traditional retirement age. By remaining on the job, your later years may be more secure financially and more rewarding personally.

If you would like to discuss your retirement options/investments, or any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch.

Source:

1Employee Benefit Research Institute, 2014 Retirement Confidence Survey, March 18, 2014.

2Social Security Administration. The benefit increase no longer applies when you reach age 70, even if you continue to delay taking benefits.

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