The High Ground: Why AI Will Never Replace Human Financial Planners

October 22, 2025 — Sam H. Fawaz

Introductory Note: I was inspired to write this based on a recent rant by one of the fathers of the financial planning profession and author of “Inside Information”, Bob Veres. I’ve used his rant (with his express written permission) to expand on this topic.

Every few months, the same headline resurfaces—“Artificial intelligence (AI) won’t replace human financial planners.” It’s meant to reassure, but perhaps we should also ask: why does this declaration keep needing to be made?

These forecasts of inevitable obsolescence have circulated through our profession for decades. We heard them when the first planning programs rolled out in the early 1980s. We heard them again in the 2010s, when “robo‑advisors” promised efficient algorithms would do the same work for a fraction of the cost. Today, with artificial intelligence reshaping industries from law to logistics, we’re told—yet again—that technology will soon do it all… but “not yet.”

My position is simpler: not ever.

Am I being naive or perhaps ignorant of where AI is headed? Perhaps.

Many don’t know this, but the roots of the “geek” in my financial planning moniker, “themoneygeek,” stem from my strong interest and decades-long professional background and expertise working in technology as a software product manager, technology consultant, and educator.

I got my start in the financial planning profession by first consulting with other financial planners on their technology architecture needs to get that proverbial foot in the door. So, as a self-declared technogeek since the 1980s, I have some credibility when making this statement.

What Technology Really Does Best

Let’s be clear—technology is not the enemy of good advice. It’s an amplifier. AI‑driven tools can already integrate real‑time market data, automate rebalancing, flag tax‑loss harvesting opportunities, model cash flow across multiple scenarios, and surface insights about spending or risk that would take hours to identify manually.​

A fee‑only fiduciary who embraces these tools can deliver faster answers, cleaner reporting, and deeper analytics. In that sense, technology actually gives human advisors more leverage to serve their clients—just as earlier innovations like portfolio management and financial planning software once did.​

But algorithms can’t build trust, navigate life events, or calm a shaken client during a market shock. A spreadsheet doesn’t hear the fear in someone’s voice. A chatbot doesn’t see a spouse’s expression at the thought of retiring early or funding a child’s education.

The True Frontier of Advice

The maturation of our profession has always followed an upward path—from product sales, to planning, to personalized professional advice. The next step is coaching: helping clients clarify what they truly want from this one precious life they’ve been given.

That process involves conversations about purpose, family, trade‑offs, and meaning—topics that no predictive model can quantify. Many clients, given the tools, still won’t set priorities or pursue their deeper goals without a trusted nudge from a human advisor. They’ll plan for others before they plan for themselves. And that’s where the real value of our work lies: helping people live their money, not just manage it.​

Where the “High Ground” Lies

The safest territory from automation is not in number‑crunching but in connection—the human partnership that turns goals into action.

Technology can see patterns. Only people can see you.

Artificial intelligence will make planners faster, smarter, and more efficient—but never replace the relationship that gives planning its meaning.

So rather than defending our values against technology, let’s stand firmly on higher ground:

Empathy. Context. Coaching. Accountability.

Those are the edges no algorithm can reach.

Sam H. Fawaz CFP®, CPA, PFS is the President of YDream Financial Services, Inc., a fee-only investment advisory and financial planning firm serving the entire United States. If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other retirement, college, tax, or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first, with no products to sell. If you are not a client, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We begin with a thorough assessment of your unique personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client’s financial plan and investment objectives are unique.

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U.S. Government Shutdown 2025: What It Means and How Long It Could Last

October 4, 2025 — Sam H. Fawaz

The federal government officially shut down many of its operations at 12:01 a.m. on October 1, 2025. (1) This is the 15th government shutdown since 1980. Most were short, lasting one to three days. The longest lasted 34 full days, from December 2018 to January 2019. (2)

It’s impossible to predict how long the current shutdown might last, but it may be helpful to know more about why it happened and what you can expect if it continues.

Zero out of 12 appropriations bills

The federal fiscal year begins on October 1, and under normal procedures, twelve appropriations bills for various government sectors are expected to be passed by that date to fund activities ranging from federal employee salaries to national park operations and food safety inspections.

These appropriations are considered discretionary spending, meaning that Congress has the flexibility to set the amounts. Obviously, it would be helpful for federal agencies to know their operating budgets in advance of the fiscal year, but all 12 appropriations bills have not been passed before October 1 (or any time during the year) since FY 1997. (3)

In 2018–19, five of the twelve appropriations bills had passed prior to the shutdown, which helped limit the damage. (4) This year, no appropriations bills have been passed. However, some agencies — primarily in the Department of Defense and Department of Homeland Security — received new funding from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed this summer, which may allow certain programs and functions to continue. (5)

Continuing resolutions and omnibus spending bills

To buy time for further negotiations, Congress typically passes a continuing resolution, which extends federal spending to a specific date, generally at or based on the level of the previous year. These bills are essentially placeholders that keep the government open until full-year spending legislation is enacted.

Even with the extensions provided by continuing resolutions, Congress seldom passes individual appropriations bills. Instead, they are often combined into massive omnibus spending bills that may include other provisions unrelated to funding.

The current situation

The U.S. Constitution gives the House of Representatives sole power to initiate revenue bills, so the House typically passes funding legislation and sends it to the Senate. Whereas the House can pass legislation with a simple majority, the Senate generally requires 60 votes to pass legislation due to the filibuster rule. This, in turn, typically requires cooperation from both political parties.

The House approved a continuing resolution that would extend funding for seven weeks at current levels of spending. Senate Republicans, with one exception, voted for the bill late on the night of September 30, joined by three Democrats for a total of 55 votes, five votes short of the 60 votes needed to pass. Earlier in the evening, a Democrat-sponsored continuing resolution also failed to pass. (6)

Although a larger group of Senate Democrats provided support for a similar continuing resolution in March, they have refused to support this resolution unless it includes an extension of Affordable Care Act (ACA) health insurance subsidies that are scheduled to expire on December 31, 2025.

Allowing the ACA subsidies to lapse could significantly raise health insurance premiums for many Americans, and Republican leadership has expressed a willingness to consider extending them, but not as part of the continuing resolution. Democrats also seek to reverse spending cuts to Medicaid. (7)

Effects of the shutdown

According to the law, the U.S. Treasury cannot spend money that has not been approved by Congress. Therefore, agencies that rely on discretionary spending cannot pay their employees or maintain essential services.

Each agency has its own shutdown plan. Certain “essential services” — primarily related to public safety — will continue and be funded retroactively after funding has been authorized. Here are the potential effects on some key services. (8–12)

· Mail will continue to be delivered because the U.S. Postal Service is self-funded.

· Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid will continue to make payments because the funds for these programs do not require annual appropriations. However, other services, such as benefit verifications and application processing, may cease.

· Interest on Treasury securities will continue to be paid.

· Federal workers will not be paid. Workers considered “essential” will be required to work without pay, while others would typically be furloughed. However, the Trump administration has issued instructions that agencies should use the shutdown as an opportunity to reduce their workforces, an action that has not occurred during previous shutdowns. Lost wages for essential and furloughed employees will be reimbursed after funding is approved.

· Unlike federal employees, private contractors who often work side-by-side with federal employees are not guaranteed to be paid.

· Air travel could be affected. In 2019, high absenteeism among Transportation Security Administration (TSA) workers, who were required to work without pay, resulted in long lines, delays, and gate closures at some airports.

· Environmental and food inspections could stop.

· “Accessible areas” of national parks, such as roads, trails, and open-air memorials, will remain open, as will locations and services supported directly by visitor fees. Other areas may be closed, and visitor services may be unavailable.

· The Internal Revenue Service has special funding that will allow it to maintain operations for the first five business days of the shutdown. It’s unclear what would happen after that, but if a large number of workers are furloughed, the IRS would be unable to perform verifications for income and Social Security numbers, which could delay mortgage and other loan applications. Tax refunds could also be delayed.

· Key economic reports, like the monthly jobs report, may be delayed, making it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to gauge economic activity when making decisions.

· The National Flood Insurance Program will stop issuing policies or renewals.

· Federal student loan disbursements and grants to local school districts should continue, along with processing the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA). However, an extended shutdown could cause delays in processing and support activities, and schools located on federal land, such as Indian reservations or military bases, could temporarily lose funding.

· The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP or food stamps) and the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) will continue for now, but it is unclear how long they can be sustained.

While any shutdown causes hardship for federal workers and the citizens they serve, a brief shutdown typically has a minimal effect on the broader U.S. economy, because lost payments are generally made up after spending is authorized. However, an extended shutdown can be costly.

The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the 2018–19 shutdown reduced gross domestic product (GDP) by $11 billion, including $3 billion that was never recovered. Even so, this was a tiny fraction of GDP. (13)

Previous shutdowns have generally not significantly impacted global markets, except for some moderate short-term volatility. However, a prolonged shutdown could have a greater temporary impact. (14)

If the shutdown continues, be sure to check the status of federal agencies and services that may directly affect you.

Shutdown effects on markets and the debt ceiling

The current shutdown has sparked little more than a yawn among investors. On the first two days of the shutdown, the S&P 500 index closed higher, suggesting that many people are barely aware of what is happening or the potential ramifications.

Although the current debate is not directly related to the debt ceiling, we will likely confront that issue again in January.

The debt ceiling was temporarily suspended in August 2023 through December 31, 2024. However, once the suspension expired, the debt ceiling was reinstated to approximately $36.1 trillion to account for obligations incurred during the suspension period.

Congress raised the statutory debt ceiling by $5 trillion in July 2025, increasing the limit from $36.1 trillion to $41.1 trillion. Interestingly, the national debt is projected to surpass $39.4 trillion by January 1, 2026.

While it appears that markets are largely ignoring this current shutdown, if it drags on, it could become a bigger problem than most expect. The longer this issue continues, the closer we come to facing the same situation with the debt ceiling at the start of 2026.

Note: Projections are based on current conditions, are subject to change, and may not materialize as expected.

Sam H. Fawaz CFP®, CPA, PFS is the President of YDream Financial Services, Inc., a fee-only investment advisory and financial planning firm serving the entire United States. If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other retirement, college, tax, or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first, with no products to sell. If you are not a client, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We begin with a thorough assessment of your unique personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client’s financial plan and investment objectives are unique.

Footnotes: 1) The Hill, October 1, 2025; 2, 5, 13) CBS News, September 29, 2025; 3) The New York Times, September 29, 2025; 4, 10) Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, September 16, 2025; 6) The New York Times, September 30, 2025; 7) Associated Press, September 29, 2025, and October 1, 2025; 8) The Wall Street Journal, October 1, 2025; 9, 14) CNBC, October 1, 2025; 11) The New York Times, October 1, 2025; 12) ABC News, October 1, 2025

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New Tax Bill Requires Updated Planning Approach

July 21, 2025 — Sam H. Fawaz

President Trump signed into law the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) on July 4, 2025, after months of deliberation in the House and Senate. The legislation includes multiple tax provisions that will guide individuals, business owners, and investors in planning their finances for many years to come.

The OBBBA makes permanent most of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) tax provisions that were set to expire at the end of this year, while delivering several new deductions and changes.

Many of the new and modified provisions seem simple on the surface, but will require new approaches to tax planning to optimize the benefits of various tax breaks.

On behalf of all CPA’s and accountants, and before delving into the various provisions below, I want to thank Congress for renewing the “CPA Full Employment Act,” also known as GOFA (Guaranteed Overtime for Accountants), proving once again that while tax breaks may expire, job security for tax professionals is eternal.

TCJA Expiring provisions that are now permanent

Rates and structure

The TCJA reduced the applicable tax rates for most brackets from 2018 through 2025, while increasing the income range covered by each bracket. The new legislation makes the TCJA rates and structure permanent. Individual marginal income tax brackets will remain at 10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35%, and 37%.

Standard deduction amounts

The TCJA established larger standard deduction amounts. The OBBBA includes an additional increase, and for 2025, the standard deduction amounts are:

  • $31,500 for married filing jointly
  • $23,625 for head of household
  • $15,750 for single and married filing separately

Personal exemptions

The TCJA eliminated the deduction for personal exemptions. The last year it was available was 2017 at $4,050 per exemption. This deduction is now permanently eliminated.

Child tax credit

Prior temporary increases to the child tax credit, the refundable portion of the credit, and income phase-out ranges are made permanent. The OBBBA increases the child tax credit to $2,200 for each qualifying child starting in 2025.

Mortgage interest deduction

The TCJA imposed a limit of $750,000 ($375,000 for married filing separately) on qualifying mortgage debt for purposes of the mortgage interest deduction. It also made interest on home equity indebtedness nondeductible. Both provisions are now permanent.

The OBBBA reinstates the previously expired provision allowing for the deduction of mortgage insurance premiums as interest (subject to income limitations), beginning in 2026.

Estate and gift tax exemption

The TCJA implemented a larger estate and gift tax exemption amount (essentially doubled it). The OBBBA increases it to $15 million in 2026 ($30 million for married couples), and it will be indexed for inflation in subsequent years.

Alternative minimum tax (AMT)

The TCJA implemented significantly increased AMT exemption amounts and exemption income phase-out thresholds. The OBBBA makes them permanent.

Itemized deduction limit

The OBBBA replaces the previously suspended (from 2018 to 2025) overall limit on itemized deductions. This was known as the “Pease limitation.”

For taxpayers with adjusted gross income (AGI) above a specified threshold (for example, in 2017, $254,200 for single filers and $305,050 for married filing jointly), the Pease limitation reduced total itemized deductions by 3% of the amount by which AGI exceeded the threshold. The haircut could not exceed 80% of the total itemized deductions.

The Pease limitation is now replaced with a percentage reduction that applies to individuals in the highest tax bracket (37%), effectively capping the value of each $1.00 of itemized deductions at $0.35.

Most taxpayers will find the new limitation more generous, as the cap only affects the highest earners.

Qualified business income deduction (Section 199A)

The TCJA created the deduction for qualified business income. The OBBBA additionally increases the phase-in thresholds for the deduction limit. A new minimum deduction of $400 is now available for specific individuals with at least $1,000 in qualified business income.

TCJA Existing provisions with material changes

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act also makes significant changes to other provisions, some of which are temporary, while others are permanent. Two of the changes that received substantial coverage leading up to passage and enactment include a temporary increase in the limit on allowable state and local tax deductions and the rollback of existing energy tax incentives.

State and local tax deduction (SALT)

The new legislation temporarily increases the cap on the SALT deduction from $10,000 to $40,000 through 2029. This increased cap is retroactively effective for the entire year 2025. The $40,000 cap will increase to $40,400 in 2026 and by 1% for each of the following three years.

The cap is reduced for those with modified adjusted gross incomes (AGI) exceeding $500,000 (tax year 2025, adjusted for inflation in subsequent years), but the limit is never reduced below $10,000. In 2030, the SALT deduction cap will return to $10,000.

Careful income and deduction planning for taxpayers around the $500,000 AGI level will be critical going forward.

Repeal and phase-out of clean energy credits

The new legislation significantly rolls back energy-related tax incentives. Provisions include:

  • The Clean Vehicle Credit (Internal Revenue Code or IRC Section 30D), the Previously Owned Clean Vehicle Credit (IRC Section 25E), and the Qualified Commercial Clean Vehicles Credit (IRC Section 45W) are eliminated effective for vehicles acquired after September 30, 2025.
  • The Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit (IRC Section 25C) and the Residential Clean Energy Credit (IRC Section 25D) are repealed for property placed in service after December 31, 2025.
  • The New Energy Efficient Home Credit (Section 45L) will expire on June 30, 2026; the credit cannot be claimed for homes acquired after that date.
  • The Alternative Fuel Vehicle Refueling Property Credit (IRC Section 30C) will not be available for property placed in service after June 30, 2026.

Gambling losses

The new law changes the treatment of gambling losses, effective as of 2026.

Before the legislation, individuals could deduct 100% of their gambling losses against winnings (the deduction could never exceed the amount of gambling winnings). Now, a new cap limits deductions to 90%.

Bonus depreciation and Section 179 expensing

Before this legislation, the additional first-year “bonus” depreciation was being phased out, with the maximum deduction dropping to 40% by 2025.

The new legislation permanently establishes a 100% additional first-year depreciation deduction for qualifying property, allowing businesses to deduct the full cost of such property in the year of acquisition. The 100% additional first-year depreciation deduction is available for property acquired after January 19, 2025.

Effective for property placed in service in 2025, the legislation also increases the limit for expensing under IRC Section 179 from $1 million of acquisitions (indexed for inflation) to $2.5 million, and it increases the phase-out threshold from $2.5 million (indexed for inflation) to $4 million.

OBBBA New provisions

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act includes several new tax deductions intended to represent a step toward fulfilling campaign promises that eliminate taxes on Social Security, tips, and overtime. Some of these new deductions are temporary, others are permanent.

Deduction for seniors

Effective for tax years 2025–2028, the legislation creates a new $6,000 deduction for qualifying individuals who reach the age of 65 during the year. The deduction begins to phase out when modified adjusted gross income exceeds $75,000 ($150,000 for married filing jointly).

Tip income deduction, AKA “no tax on tips”

Effective for tax years 2025–2028, for the first time, tip-based workers can deduct a portion of their cash tips for federal income tax purposes. Individuals who receive qualified cash tips in occupations that customarily received tips before January 1, 2025, may exclude up to $25,000 in reported tip income from their federal taxable income. A married couple filing a joint return may each claim a deduction of up to $25,000.

The deduction phases out at a modified adjusted gross income of $150,000 for single filers and $300,000 for joint filers. This provision applies to a broad range of service occupations, including restaurant staff, hairstylists, and hospitality workers.

Overtime deduction, AKA “no tax on overtime”

A new temporary deduction of up to $12,500 ($25,000 if married filing jointly) is established for qualified overtime compensation. The deduction is phased out for individuals with a modified adjusted gross income of over $150,000 ($300,000 if married filing jointly).

The deduction is reduced by $100 for each $1,000 of modified adjusted gross income exceeding the threshold. To claim the deduction, a Social Security number must be provided. The deduction is available for tax years 2025 through 2028.

Investment accounts for children, AKA “Trump accounts”

A new tax-deferred account for children under the age of 18 is created, effective January 1, 2026. With limited exceptions, up to $5,000 in total can be contributed to an account annually (the $5,000 amount is indexed for inflation). Parents, relatives, employers, and certain tax-exempt, nonprofit, and government organizations are eligible to make contributions. Contributions are not tax-deductible.

For children born between 2025 and 2028, the federal government will contribute $1,000 per child into eligible accounts. Distributions generally cannot be made from the account before the account holder reaches the age of 18, and there are restrictions, limitations, and tax consequences that govern how and when account funds can be used. To have an account, a child must be a U.S. citizen and have a Social Security number.

Charitable deduction for non-itemizers and itemizers

The legislation reinstates a tax provision that was previously effective for tax year 2021.

A deduction for qualifying charitable contributions is now permanently established for individuals who do not itemize deductions. The deduction is capped at $1,000 ($2,000 for married filing jointly). Contributions must be made in cash to a public charity and meet other specific requirements. This deduction is available starting in tax year 2026.

For itemizers, the legislation introduces a “haircut” to charitable contributions, equivalent to 0.5% of adjusted gross income, similar to the 7.5% haircut for medical expenses.

These provisions possibly make donor-advised funds and qualified charitable distributions (from IRAs for those age 70.5 or older) more critical than ever to incorporate into charitable giving strategies and planning.

Car loan interest deduction, AKA “no tax on car loan interest”

For tax years 2025–2028, interest paid on car loans is now deductible for certain buyers.

Beginning in 2025, taxpayers who purchase qualifying new vehicles assembled in the United States for personal use may deduct up to $10,000 in annual interest on a qualifying loan.

The deduction is phased out at higher incomes, starting at a modified adjusted gross income of $100,000 (single filers) or $200,000 (joint filers).

529 Education Savings Plans

Section 529 college savings accounts are expanded in three critical ways:

First, you can withdraw up to $20,000 per year tax-free for K-12 schooling beginning in 2026, an increase of $10,000 from the current annual cap. As always, there is no limit on the amount of tax-free withdrawals that can be used to pay for college.

Second, more K-12 expenses are covered. It used to be that distributions for K-12 education were tax-free only if used to cover tuition. Now covered are costs of tuition, materials for curricula and online studying, books, educational tutoring, fees for taking an advanced placement test or any exam related to college admission, and educational therapies provided by a licensed provider to students with disabilities. This easing begins with distributions from 529 accounts made after July 4, 2025.

Third, certain post-high school credentialing program costs are eligible for payment via 529 plans. This expansion supports individuals pursuing alternative educational and career pathways outside of traditional degree programs. Eligible costs typically include:

  • Tuition, books, and required fees for credentialing and licensing programs.
  • Testing fees to obtain or maintain a professional certification or license.
  • Continuing education costs needed to renew or maintain specific credentials.
  • Supplies and equipment required for a recognized credentialing program.

1099 Reporting

A 2021 law required third-party settlement networks to send 1099-Ks to payees who were paid more than $600 for goods and services. The OBBBA repeals this change and restores the prior reporting rule. Third-party networks are now required to send 1099-Ks only to payees with over 200 transactions who were paid more than $20,000 in a calendar year.

The filing threshold for 1099-MISC and 1099-NEC forms increases from $600 to $2,000, effective with forms sent out in 2027 for tax year 2026. This figure will be indexed for inflation. The $600 reporting threshold has not changed since 1954, even though prices have increased by about 1095% since then.

But wait….there’s more …

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act includes broad and sweeping changes that will have a profound impact on tax planning. The legislation is over 800 pages long, and we have only scratched the surface here.

While income and estate tax provisions are highlighted in this summary, the legislation also makes fundamental changes that impact areas such as healthcare, immigration, and border security, as well as additional tax changes. Further information and details will be forthcoming in the coming weeks and months. There are numerous unanswered questions that will be addressed through Congressional technical corrections, IRS Bulletins, and upcoming regulations.

As always, if you have questions about how these changes affect your specific situation, please don’t hesitate to contact us. Although I expect a jump in my overtime this year as a result of this tax bill, the no-tax-on-overtime provision does not apply to yours truly. I guess that’s the price to pay for having a job for life.

Sam H. Fawaz is the President of YDream Financial Services, Inc., a fee-only investment advisory and financial planning firm serving the entire United States. If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other tax or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first, with no products to sell. If you are not a client, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We begin with a thorough assessment of your unique personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client’s financial plan and investment objectives are unique.

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Does the new Social Security ID Verification Affect You?

June 25, 2025 — Sam H. Fawaz

This spring, the Social Security Administration (SSA) announced that some individuals who want to claim Social Security benefits or change their direct deposit account information will need to prove their identity in person at a local Social Security field office.

According to the SSA, stronger identity verification procedures are needed to prevent fraud. The new rule is already confusing, partly because of its hasty rollout, so here are answers to some common questions and links to official SSA information.

Who will need to visit a Social Security office to verify their identity?

This new rule only affects people without or who can’t use their personal mySocialSecurity account. If you already have a mySocialSecurity account, you can continue to file new benefit claims, set up direct deposit, or make direct deposit changes online — you will not need to visit an office.

You must visit an office to verify your identity if you do not have a mySocialSecurity account and you are:

· Applying for retirement, survivor, spousal, or dependent child benefits

· Changing direct deposit information for any type of benefit

· Receiving benefit payments by paper check and need to change your mailing address

You don’t need to visit an office to verify your identity if you are applying for Medicare, Social Security disability benefits, or Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits — these are exempt from the new rule, and you can complete the process by phone.

If you’re already receiving benefits and don’t need to change direct deposit information, you will not have to contact the SSA online or in person to verify your identity. According to the SSA, “People will continue to receive their benefits and on time to the bank account information in Social Security’s records without needing to prove their identity.” There’s also no need to visit an office to verify your identity if you are not yet receiving benefits.

The SSA has also announced that requests for direct deposit changes (online or in person) will be processed within one business day. Before this, online direct deposit changes were held for 30 days.

What if you don’t have a mySocialSecurity account?

You can create an account anytime on the SSA website, ssa.gov/myaccount. A mySocialSecurity account is free and gives you access to SSA tools and services online. For example, you can request a replacement Social Security card, view your Social Security statement that includes your earnings record and future benefit estimates, apply for new benefits and set up direct deposit, or manage your current benefits and change your direct deposit instructions.

To start the sign-up process, you will be prompted to create an account with one of two credential service providers, Login.gov or ID.me. These services meet the U.S. government’s identity proofing and authentication requirements and help the SSA securely verify your identity online, so you won’t need to prove your identity at an SSA office. You can also use your existing Login.gov or ID.me credentials if you have already signed up with one of these providers elsewhere.

If you’re unable or unwilling to create a mySocialSecurity account, you can call the SSA and start a benefits claim; however, if you’re filing an application for retirement, survivor, spousal, or dependent child benefits, your request can’t be completed until your identity is verified in person. You may also start a direct deposit change by phone and subsequently visit an office to complete the identity verification step. You can find your local SSA office using the Social Security Office Locator at ssa.gov.

To complete your transaction in one step, the SSA recommends scheduling an in-person appointment by calling the SSA at (800) 772-1213. However, you may face delays. According to SSA data (through February), only 44% of benefit claim appointments are scheduled within 28 days, and the average time you’ll wait on hold to speak to a representative (in English) is 1 hour and 28 minutes, though you can request a callback (74% of callers do). These wait times will vary, but are likely to worsen as the influx of calls increases and the SSA experiences staffing cuts.

What if your Social Security account was created before September 18, 2021?

Last July, the SSA announced that anyone who created a mySocialSecurity account with a username and password before September 18, 2021, would need to begin using either Login.gov or ID.me to continue accessing their Social Security account. If you haven’t already completed the transition, you can find instructions at ssa.gov/myaccount.

How can you help protect yourself against Social Security scams?

Scammers may take advantage of confusion over this new rule by posing as SSA representatives and asking individuals to verify their identity to continue receiving benefits. Be extremely careful if you receive an unsolicited call, text, email, or social media message claiming to be from the SSA or the Office of the Inspector General.

Although SSA representatives may occasionally contact beneficiaries by phone for legitimate business purposes, they will never contact you via text message or social media. Representatives will never threaten you, pressure you to take immediate action (including sharing personal information), ask you to send money, or say they need to suspend your Social Security number. Familiarize yourself with the signs of a Social Security-related scam by visiting ssa.gov/scam.

Sam H. Fawaz is the President of YDream Financial Services, Inc., a fee-only investment advisory and financial planning firm serving the entire United States. If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other tax or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first, with no products to sell. If you are not a client, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client and their financial plan and investment objectives are different.

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Hidden Risks of Naming a Trust as Your IRA or 401(k) Beneficiary

May 4, 2025 — Sam H. Fawaz

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Naming your trust as the beneficiary of your IRA or 401(k) can be a powerful estate planning tool, but it comes with significant complexities and trade-offs.

Recent IRS regulations, particularly the final regulations issued in July 2024, have made several significant changes affecting individuals who have named a trust as the beneficiary of their IRA or 401(k). These changes address required minimum distributions (RMDs), beneficiary classifications, documentation requirements, and tax implications.

If you have a trust, it may no longer be prudent to name your trust as your 401(k) or IRA beneficiary. You may need to consult with your estate planning attorney to confirm that naming your trust as the beneficiary is still a valid designation.

If your trust document is over five years old, you may need to consult your estate planning attorney to modify your trust or update your beneficiary designations to avoid unintended accelerated distribution timeframes or subject the distributions to steep trust tax rates.

Before discussing the latest tax regulations and the implications of naming a trust as your IRA or 401(k) beneficiary, let’s look at the pros and cons of doing so:

PROS OF NAMING A TRUST AS AN IRA BENEFICIARY

• Control Over Distributions: A trust allows you to set specific terms for how and when assets are distributed. This is particularly useful if your beneficiaries are minors, have special needs, or may not be financially responsible [9][10][11][12].

• Protection for Vulnerable Beneficiaries: Trusts can protect beneficiaries who are minors, disabled, or have issues with creditors, addiction, or poor financial decision-making [9][13][14][11][12].

• Asset Protection: A trust can safeguard assets from a beneficiary’s creditors, divorce, or lawsuits [10][12].

• Estate Planning for Blended Families: Trusts can ensure assets are distributed according to your wishes, such as providing for a spouse during their lifetime with the remainder going to children from a previous marriage [13][14][10][12].

• Privacy: Distributions through a trust avoid probate, keeping your estate details private [10].

• Special Needs Planning: A properly structured trust can provide for a beneficiary with special needs without disqualifying them from government benefits [14][10][11].

• Contingency Planning: Trusts can specify what happens if a beneficiary dies before receiving their full share, offering more control over the ultimate disposition of assets [12].

CONS OF NAMING A TRUST AS AN IRA BENEFICIARY

• Accelerated Taxation and RMD Rules: Trusts are subject to RMDs based on the oldest beneficiary’s life expectancy, which can accelerate withdrawals and taxes compared to naming individuals directly [9][13][11].

Under the SECURE Act, most non-spouse beneficiaries, including trusts, must withdraw the entire account within 10 years, eliminating the “stretch IRA” (explained below) in most cases [14][10][11].

• Potential for Higher Taxes: Trusts reach the highest federal income tax rate much faster than individuals. If the trust accumulates income instead of distributing it, this can result in significantly higher taxes [15][10].

• Loss of Spousal Rollover: Naming a trust as beneficiary means a surviving spouse cannot roll the account into their own IRA, losing the ability to defer taxes over their lifetime [14].

• Increased Complexity and Cost: Administering a trust as a retirement account beneficiary involves more paperwork, legal compliance, and potentially higher administrative costs [13][15][10].

• Risk of Non-Compliance: If the trust is not drafted correctly as a “see-through” (or “look-through”) trust (see below), it may trigger even more accelerated distribution rules, such as the five-year distribution rule [15][11].

• Plan Restrictions: Some employer plans may not allow trusts as beneficiaries or may require lump-sum distributions, which could trigger full immediate taxation [13].

• No Probate Avoidance for Trust Assets: While retirement accounts avoid probate when a beneficiary is named, naming a trust does not provide additional probate avoidance for the retirement account, though it does for assets distributed from the trust [11].

When Naming a Trust as Beneficiary Makes Sense

• You have minor, disabled, or financially irresponsible beneficiaries.

• You want to control the timing and amount of distributions.

• You need to protect assets from creditors or divorce.

• You have a blended family and want to ensure specific inheritance outcomes.

• You have a beneficiary who relies on government benefits.

When It May Not Be Advantageous

• Your beneficiaries are financially responsible adults.

• You want to maximize tax deferral and minimize complexity.

• Your spouse is the primary beneficiary and would benefit from rollover options.

KEY TAX CHANGES AND THEIR EFFECTS

Before the SECURE Act, passed in December 2019, IRA beneficiaries enjoyed a long “stretch” of time to take distributions from the IRAs they inherited. Beneficiaries could distribute the inherited IRA assets over the remainder of their lifetimes using the IRS RMD rules.

That stretch was largely eliminated for most IRA beneficiaries who inherited an IRA from a decedent starting in 2020. The IRS took over 4 1/2 years from the passage of the SECURE Act to finalize regulations surrounding distributions from post-2019 inherited IRAs.

1. Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) and the 10-Year Rule

As mentioned above, the SECURE Act and its subsequent regulations essentially eliminated the “stretch IRA” for most non-spouse beneficiaries, including trusts, replacing it with a 10-year payout rule. This means that, in most cases, all funds in an inherited IRA or 401(k) must be distributed by the end of the 10th year following the account holder’s death.

If the account owner died after their required beginning date (RBD), annual RMDs must be taken during years 1–9, with the entire balance distributed by year 10.

If the account owner died before their required beginning date (RBD), annual required minimum distributions (RMDs) are not required in years 1–9. Instead, the entire inherited IRA or retirement account balance must be distributed by the end of the 10th year following the year of the original owner’s death. Depending on the size of the IRA and the beneficiary’s tax bracket, taking some distributions in years 1-9 may be prudent, even if not required.

The RBD for most IRA owners is age 70-1/2 to 73 (soon to be 75). Remember that the “M” in RMD is the minimum you must distribute. Depending on the size of the IRA, more than the minimum distribution will often make more sense.

Only “Eligible Designated Beneficiaries” (EDBs), such as spouses, minor children (until age 21), disabled or chronically ill individuals, or beneficiaries less than 10 years younger than the decedent, can still use the stretch distribution based on their life expectancy.

2. Trust Types and Beneficiary Analysis

The IRS continues to recognize “see-through” (or “look-through”) trusts, which allow the trust’s individual beneficiaries to be treated as the IRA’s beneficiaries for RMD purposes.

To qualify as a see-through trust under IRS rules, the trust must meet specific criteria that allow its beneficiaries to be treated as direct beneficiaries of an inherited IRA or 401(k). These requirements ensure the trust can utilize stretch distributions or the 10-year rule based on beneficiary status (i.e., EDB or non-EDB).

Here are the key requirements of a see-through trust:

a. Validity Under State Law

The trust must be legally valid in the state where it was created. This typically requires proper execution, witnessing, and notarization of the trust document.

b. Irrevocability Upon Death

The trust must be irrevocable from inception or upon the account owner’s death. Revocable trusts that convert to irrevocable status at death are acceptable.

c. Identifiable Beneficiaries

All trust beneficiaries must be clearly named, identifiable, and eligible individuals (e.g., people, not charities or other entities). This ensures the IRS can “see through” the trust to determine distribution timelines based on beneficiary life expectancies or the 10-year rule.

If a trust is not a see-through trust, it may be considered a:

  1. Conduit Trust: All IRA distributions must be immediately passed to beneficiaries. Taxes are paid at the beneficiaries’ individual rates, but the 10-year rule generally applies unless all beneficiaries are EDBs.

OR

  1. Accumulation (Discretionary) Trust: Distributions are retained in the trust, which pays taxes at higher trust tax rates. All trust beneficiaries are considered when determining the payout period, and the 10-year rule usually applies.

The Final Regulations allow trusts that split into separate subtrusts for each beneficiary upon the account holder’s death to apply RMD rules based on each subtrust’s beneficiary status. This can preserve stretch treatment for EDBs even if other beneficiaries are subject to the 10-year rule.

3. Documentation Requirements

For IRAs, the IRS has eliminated the requirement for trustees to provide detailed trust documentation to the IRA custodian. Now, only a list of trust beneficiaries and their entitlements may be required, greatly simplifying compliance for see-through trusts.

Some documentation requirements remain for 401(k) and other employer plans, but they have been simplified.

4. Tax Consequences

As mentioned above, trusts reach the top income tax bracket much faster than individuals. In 2024, trust income over $15,200 is taxed at 37%, whereas individuals do not hit this rate until much higher income levels. This can result in significantly higher tax bills if IRA distributions are accumulated in a trust rather than paid to beneficiaries.

Lump-sum distributions or failing to comply with the new rules can result in accelerated taxation and potential penalties.

5. Special Provisions and Clarifications

The IRS clarified that if a trust divides into separate subtrusts immediately upon the account owner’s death, each subtrust is analyzed separately for RMD purposes.

If trust terms or beneficiaries are modified after the account owner’s death (by September 30 of the following year), these changes will affect RMD calculations as if they were always part of the original trust.

Payments made “for the benefit of” a beneficiary (such as to a custodial account for a minor) are treated as direct payments to the beneficiary for RMD purposes.

PRACTICAL CONSIDERATIONS

Most trusts named as IRA or 401(k) beneficiaries will now face the 10-year payout rule, with fewer opportunities for long-term tax deferral.

Under the new rules, trusts must be carefully analyzed and possibly restructured to maximize tax efficiency and achieve estate planning goals.

Simplifying documentation requirements reduces administrative burdens for IRA trusts, but not necessarily for employer plans.

High trust tax rates make accumulation trusts less attractive for holding retirement assets over the long term.

ACTION MAY BE REQUIRED

If your IRA or 401(k) names your trust as a beneficiary, it’s advisable to consult with your estate planning attorney to ensure that, in light of the recent tax regulations, naming the Trust as beneficiary is still prudent.

If you’re unsure whether your trust is considered a see-through trust, consult with your estate planning attorney to determine if the trust must be modified to ensure that the 10-year distribution for beneficiaries remains intact. Otherwise, that 10-year period might be inadvertently shortened to five years, or worse, subject distributions to overly steep trust tax rates.

Whether you have a trust or have named your trust as a beneficiary of your IRA or 401(k), now is a good time to check the beneficiary designations on all of your retirement accounts and insurance policies to ensure they are up to date and reflect all of your recent life changes. If something should happen to you, your loved ones will be most grateful.

Sam H. Fawaz is the President of YDream Financial Services, Inc., a fee-only investment advisory and financial planning firm serving the entire United States. If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other tax or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first, with no products to sell. If you are not a client, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client and their financial plan and investment objectives are different.

1-8. Deleted

9. https://www.voya.com/blog/retirement-account-pros-and-cons-naming-trust-beneficiary

10. https://www.markruizlaw.com/should-your-living-trust-be-the-beneficiary-of-your-ira-or-401-k-pros-and-cons-explained

11. https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/09/trust-beneficiaries.asp

12. https://www.drobnylaw.com/articles/designating-a-trust-as-beneficiary-of-individual-retirement-account-benefits

13. https://www.myubiquity.com/resources/can-a-trust-be-a-beneficiary-of-a-401-k-plan

14. https://www.katz-law-firm.com/can-a-trust-be-the-beneficiary-of-an-ira/

15. https://caryestateplanning.com/blog/should-i-have-a-trust-as-my-ira-beneficiary/

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Protecting Yourself When Your Data is in Danger

September 3, 2024 — Sam H. Fawaz

It’s been exactly one year since I published my article “Protecting Yourself from the Latest Cyber Scams.” It’s time to update that article, given that not a week goes by without hearing about another corporate data breach, which makes our personal data and information available for anyone to see or exploit.

National Public Data, a consumer data broker, confirmed last week that a hacker had targeted the company in December 2023, “with potential leaks of specific data in April 2024 and summer 2024.” (1)

Other reports indicate that this leaked data had already been found on the dark web and could include millions of Americans’ names, addresses, phone numbers, and Social Security numbers. (2)

A data breach of this magnitude is especially worrisome and is the latest in a string of major data breaches this year. (3)

If you’re wondering what you can do to help protect yourself against the growing threat of identity theft and related scams, here are some steps to consider.

Consider Fraud Alerts and Credit Freezes

One way to reduce your risk after a data breach is to place a fraud alert or a credit freeze on your credit report. Both are free tools that can help you prevent fraud but work somewhat differently.

A fraud alert is a notice placed on your credit report that warns potential creditors that your identity has been compromised. It allows them to check your credit but requires them to take extra steps to verify your identity before issuing new credit in your name.  You can place a fraud alert by contacting one of the three major credit bureaus (Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion), and that agency will notify the others. An initial alert will last for one year but can be extended to seven years if you have become an actual, rather than potential, victim of fraud.

A credit freeze (sometimes called a security freeze) may also help protect you if you suspect your personal information was stolen, but it’s more stringent. Once you have a credit freeze in place, potential creditors won’t be able to access your credit report or credit score (there are some exceptions.) This helps prevent identity thieves from opening fraudulent accounts in your name. You must contact each of the three major credit reporting agencies to request a credit freeze. The credit freeze will stay in place until you decide to lift it, which you must do at least temporarily before applying for credit.

Following each credit bureau’s instructions, you can set up a fraud alert or credit freeze online, by phone, or by mail. This may also be an excellent time to request a free credit report to check recent credit activity. Here are the three major credit bureaus’ website addresses and phone numbers:

·       Equifax at Equifax.com 888-298-0045

·       Experian at Experian.com 888-397-3742

·       TransUnion at Transunion.com 800-916-8800

Monitor Your Personal and Financial Information and Implement Technology Controls

·       If you need extended support, consider subscribing to a credit monitoring service. These services come at a cost, but they may bundle credit report monitoring, credit report locks, scans of the dark web, help recovering from identity theft, and insurance.

·       Periodically review your credit reports to spot suspicious activity. You can receive free weekly online reports from all three credit bureaus at the official site, annualcreditreport.com.

·       Sign up for alerts for your bank, financial, and credit card accounts. These alerts notify you when an unusual transaction occurs, or someone has signed into your account. Check your accounts frequently and review your statements monthly.

·       Pick strong passwords that are different for each account and change them periodically. For an extra layer of protection, use a password manager that generates strong, unique passwords you control through a single master password.

·       Enable multifactor authentication when offered. For example, in addition to providing a password, you may be required to enter a code sent to your phone or email, answer a security question, use a physical security key, or sign in using a facial or fingerprint scan.

·       Keep your device and security software up to date. Operating system and software updates may include security fixes. Turning on automatic updates is an easy way to do this.

·       Add security software to your smartphones and tablets, just like your computer or laptop.

·       Beware of phishing (e-mail), vishing (phone), and smishing (SMS) attempts from scammers who want to obtain passwords or financial information. Always maintain a healthy dose of skepticism.

·       Be cautious if you receive a link or attachment in your email or via social media. Don’t click on it until you verify it’s legitimate.

·       Warnings of overdue invoices, failed delivery attempts, and order confirmations in e-mails and texts look surprisingly genuine these days. Overseas scammers are now adept at using spelling and grammar checkers, so those old tell-tale signs may no longer exist.

·       Leave unsolicited/unknown phone calls to voicemail and double-check phone numbers, even if they appear familiar or appear to originate from a company you usually do business with. Cloning and spoofing of known and “safe” caller ID information is commonplace, so you can’t always trust it.

·       With artificial intelligence, voice replication software, and deep fakes, you can’t always trust what you hear or see. A tiny snippet of your voice, picture, or video on the web (or from a phone call) can be exploited to allow imposters to create near-perfect replicas of your voice, your loved ones’ voice, or video images and trick you into acting quickly out of fear.

·       Beware of humans or robocalls looking for a simple “yes” or “no” answer to a seemingly innocent question. They may attempt to steal your voice “print” to use in future scams they have planned.

Human Controls & Constant Vigilance

Be aware that after a significant data breach, scammers may step up impersonation attempts, even if they don’t have access to stolen data. That might be an impersonation of a loved one in distress (or perhaps hurt) or a government official.

In all cases, they prey upon your fear and your natural inclination to act irrationally while you’re fearful. They may demand you to send money or gift cards, or they’ll share your personal information on the dark web. Chances are, if they have it, it’s already on the web, and they’ll probably share it with others even if you pay up.

For example, someone allegedly from the Social Security Administration or IRS might contact you and ask you to verify your Social Security number or provide or update your personal information. However, government agencies will never email you or call you to ask for this information. Don’t respond, and promptly contact the appropriate government agency to report an identity theft attempt.

Whenever a stranger contacts you with a request for money, make it a personal practice to allow yourself 5-10 minutes to think about what’s happening before acting. Be especially skeptical if they advise you not to discuss the matter with a spouse or loved one.

If your data has been compromised or your computer has been hacked, they may offer to help you avoid or recover from identity theft or help secure your computer. They’ll do neither and only try to get you to pay up. Never believe or accept their offers of help, even if they say they’re from Norton Security, Microsoft, or Apple. By dangling information about you that few people know (harvested perhaps by hacking into your e-mail account), they convince you they’re legitimate (they’re not) and scare you into acting or paying up.

Hang up or shut down your computer immediately, and take the time to think about your next steps. Contact your closest tech geek to help you determine if your computer or e-mail account has been compromised and to sweep it for possible malware. Change your e-mail password immediately and turn on multi-factor authentication.

If you believe a loved one is in trouble, call them directly before doing anything (like sending money or even answering seemingly innocent questions) to confirm if they’re OK independently. Setting up a safe word or phrase with loved ones in advance can save you from heartache and a lighter wallet.

For more information about how to report and recover from identity theft, visit the Federal Trade Commission’s website IdentityTheft.gov.

If you suspect fraud, you can file a complaint with the Federal Trade Commission at reportfraud.ftc.gov.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client and your financial plan and investment objectives are different.

(1) National Public Data, August 2024

(2) KrebsonSecurity.com, August 15, 2024

(3) Identity Theft Resource Center, 2024

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The Outlook for Social Security and Medicare

May 31, 2024 — Sam H. Fawaz

In a recent survey, 87% of Americans said that Congress should act now to shore up the Social Security program rather than waiting 10 years to find a solution. The sooner they do, the better.

Each year, the Social Security and Medicare trust fund Trustees provide detailed reports to Congress that track the programs’ current financial condition and projected financial outlook. These reports have warned for years that the trust funds would be depleted in the not-too-distant future, and the most recent reports, released on May 6, 2024, show that Social Security and Medicare continue to face significant financial challenges.

The Trustees of both programs continue to urge Congress to address these financial shortfalls soon so that solutions will be less drastic and may be implemented gradually.

Despite the challenges, it’s important to remember that neither of these programs is in danger of collapsing completely. The question is what changes will be required to rescue them.

More Retirees and Fewer Workers

The fundamental problem facing both programs is the aging of the American population. Today’s workers pay taxes to fund benefits received by retirees, and with lower birth rates and longer life spans, fewer workers pay into the programs, and more retirees receive benefits for a longer period. In 1960, there were 5.1 workers for each Social Security beneficiary; in 2024, there were 2.7, projected to drop steadily to 2.3 by 2040.

Dwindling Trust Funds

Payroll taxes from today’s workers and income taxes on Social Security benefits go into interest-bearing trust funds. During times when payroll taxes and other income exceeded benefit payments, these funds built up reserve assets. But now, the reserves are being depleted as they supplement payroll taxes and other income to meet scheduled benefit payments.

Social Security Outlook

Social Security consists of two programs, each with its own trust fund. Retired workers, their families, and survivors receive monthly benefits under the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) program, and disabled workers and their families receive monthly benefits under the Disability Insurance (DI) program.

The OASI Trust Fund reserves are projected to be depleted in 2033, unchanged from last year’s report. At that time, incoming revenue would pay only 79% of scheduled benefits. Reserves in the much smaller DI Trust Fund, which is on stronger footing, are not projected to be depleted during the 75 years ending in 2098.

Under current law, these two trust funds cannot be combined, but the Trustees also provide an estimate for the hypothetical combined program, referred to as OASDI. This would extend full benefits to 2035, a year later than last year’s report, at which time, incoming revenue would pay only 83% of scheduled benefits.

Medicare Outlook

Medicare also has two trust funds. The Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund pays for inpatient and hospital care under Medicare Part A. The Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI) Trust Fund comprises two accounts: one for Medicare Part B physician and outpatient costs and the other for Medicare Part D prescription drug costs.

The HI Trust Fund will contain surplus income through 2029 but is projected to be depleted in 2036, five years later than last year’s report. At that time, revenue would pay only 89% of the program’s costs. Overall, projections of Medicare costs are highly uncertain.

The SMI Trust Fund accounts for Medicare Parts B and D are expected to have sufficient funding because they are automatically balanced through premiums and revenue from the federal government’s general fund. Still, financing must increase faster than the economy to cover expected expenditure growth.

Possible Fixes

Based on this year’s report, if Congress does not take action, Social Security beneficiaries might face a benefit cut after the trust funds are depleted. Any permanent fix to Social Security would likely require a combination of changes, including:

• Raise the Social Security payroll tax rate (currently 12.4%, half paid by the employee and half by the employer). An immediate and permanent payroll tax increase to 15.73% would be necessary to address the long-range revenue shortfall (or 16.42% if the increase starts in 2035).

• Raise the ceiling on wages subject to Social Security payroll taxes ($168,600 in 2024).

• Raise the full retirement age (currently 67 for anyone born in 1960 or later).

• Change the benefit calculation formula.

• Use a different index to calculate the annual cost-of-living adjustment.

• Tax a higher percentage of benefits for higher-income beneficiaries.

Addressing the Medicare shortfall might necessitate spending cuts, tax increases, and cost-cutting through program modifications.

Based on past changes to these programs, future changes are likely to primarily affect future beneficiaries and have a relatively small effect on those already receiving benefits. While neither Social Security nor Medicare is in danger of disappearing, it would be wise to maintain a strong retirement savings strategy to prepare for potential changes that may affect you in the future.

Many people believe the social security system will not be around when it’s their turn to collect benefits. I don’t believe that to be the case. Based on everything I’ve studied, I believe Congress will act, but not any sooner than they have to, or perhaps when it becomes a crisis. And when they do, combining some or all of the above techniques will extend the social security fund and medicare benefits for many more decades. There’s no rush, in my opinion, to collect benefits as soon as possible out of fear of the system running out of money.

You can view a summary of the 2024 Social Security and Medicare Trustees Reports and a full copy of the Social Security report at ssa.gov. You can find the full Medicare report at cms.gov.

All projections are based on current conditions, subject to change, and may not come to pass.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other retirement, tax, or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us at 734-447-5305 or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first. If you are not a client, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client and your financial plan and investment objectives are different.

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New Retirement Options Starting in 2024

January 31, 2024 — Sam H. Fawaz

The SECURE 2.0 Act, passed in December 2022, made wide-ranging changes to U.S. tax laws related to retirement savings. While some provisions were effective in 2023, others did not take effect until 2024. Here is an overview of some important changes for this year:

Matching student loan payments

Employees who make student loan repayments may receive matching employer contributions to a workplace retirement plan as if the repayments were employee contributions to the plan. This applies to 401(k), 403(b), and government 457(b) plans and SIMPLE IRAs. Employers are not required to make matching contributions in any situation, but this provision allows them to offer student loan repayment matching as an additional benefit to help address the fact that people paying off student loans may struggle to save for retirement.

New early withdrawal exceptions

Withdrawals before age 59½ from tax-deferred accounts, such as IRAs and 401(k) plans, may be subject to a 10% early distribution penalty on top of ordinary income tax. There is a long list of exceptions to this penalty, including two new ones for 2024.

Emergency expenses — one penalty-free distribution of up to $1,000 is allowed in a calendar year for personal or family emergency expenses; no further emergency distributions are allowed during a three-year period unless funds are repaid or new contributions are made that are at least equal to the withdrawal.

Domestic abuse — a penalty-free withdrawal equal to the lesser of $10,000 (indexed for inflation) or 50% of the account value is allowed for an account holder who certifies that he or she has been the victim of domestic abuse during the preceding one-year period.

Emergency savings accounts

Employers can create an emergency savings account linked to a workplace retirement plan for non-highly compensated employees.  Employee contributions are after-tax and can be no more than 3% of salary, up to an account cap of $2,500  (or lower as set by the employer). Employers can match contributions up to the cap, but any matching funds go into the employee’s workplace retirement account.

Clarification for RMD ages

SECURE 2.0 raised the initial age for required minimum distributions (RMDs) from traditional IRAs and most workplace plans from 72 to 73 beginning in 2023 and 75 beginning in 2033. However, the language of the law was confusing. Congress has clarified that age 73 initial RMDs apply to those born from 1951 to 1959, and age 75 applies to those born in 1960 or later. This clarification will be made official in a law correcting a number of technical errors, expected to be passed in early 2024.

No more RMDs from Roth workplace accounts

Under previous law, RMDs did not apply to original owners of Roth IRAs, but they were required from designated Roth accounts in workplace retirement plans. This requirement will be eliminated beginning in 2024.

Transfers from a 529 college savings account to a Roth IRA

Beneficiaries of 529 college savings accounts are sometimes “stuck” with excess funds that they did not use for qualified education expenses. Beginning in 2024, a beneficiary can execute a direct trustee-to-trustee transfer from any 529 account in the beneficiary’s name to a Roth IRA, up to a lifetime limit of $35,000. The 529 account must have been open for more than 15 years. These transfers are subject to Roth IRA annual contribution limits, requiring multiple transfers to use the $35,000 limit. The IRS is still working on specific guidance on this law change, so it might pay to wait a few months before making this type of transfer.

Increased limits for SIMPLE plans

Employers with SIMPLE IRA or SIMPLE 401(k) plans can now make additional nonelective contributions up to the lesser of $5,000 or 10% of an employee’s compensation, provided the contributions are made to each eligible employee in a uniform manner. The limits for elective deferrals and catch-up contributions, which are $16,000 and $3,500, respectively, in 2024, may be increased by an additional 10% for a plan offered by an employer with no more than 25 employees. An employer with 26 to 100 employees may allow higher limits if it provides either a 4% match or a 3% nonelective contribution.

Inflation indexing for QCDs

Qualified charitable distributions (QCDs) allow a taxpayer who is age 70½ or older to distribute up to $100,000 annually from a traditional IRA to a qualified public charity. Such a distribution is not taxable and can be used in lieu of all or part of an RMD. Beginning in 2024, the QCD amount is indexed for inflation, and the 2024 limit is $105,000.

SECURE 2.0 created an opportunity (effective 2023) to use up to $50,000 of one year’s QCD (i.e., one time only) to fund a charitable gift annuity or charitable remainder trust. This amount is also indexed to inflation beginning in 2024, and the limit is $53,000.

Catch-up contributions: indexing, delay, and correction

Beginning in 2024, the limit for catch-up contributions to an IRA for people ages 50 and older will be indexed to inflation, which could provide additional saving opportunities in future years. However, the limit did not change for 2024 and remains $1,000. (The catch-up contribution limit for 401(k)s and similar employer plans was already indexed and is $7,500 in 2024.)

The SECURE 2.0 Act includes a provision — originally effective in 2024 — requiring that catch-up contributions to workplace plans for employees earning more than $145,000 annually must be made on a Roth basis. In August 2023, the IRS announced a two-year “administrative transition period” that effectively delays this provision until 2026. In the same announcement, the IRS affirmed that catch-up contributions in general will be allowed in 2024, despite a change related to this provision that could be interpreted to disallow such contributions. The error will be corrected in the 2024 technical legislation.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other retirement, tax, or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us at 734-447-5305 or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first. If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so are your financial plan and investment objectives.

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Last Minute Year-End Tax Planning for 2023

December 18, 2023 — Sam H. Fawaz

The window of opportunity for many year-end tax-saving moves closes on December 31, so it’s important to evaluate your tax situation now, while there’s still time to affect your bottom line for the 2023 tax year.

Timing is Everything

Consider any opportunities you may have to defer income to 2024. Doing so may allow you to postpone paying tax on the income until next year. If there’s a chance that you’ll be in a lower income tax bracket next year, deferring income could mean paying less tax on the income as well.

Some examples:

·       Check with your employer to see if there is an opportunity to defer year-end bonuses.

·       Defer the sale of capital gain property (or take installment payments rather than a lump-sum payment)

·       Postpone receipt of distributions (other than required minimum distributions) from retirement accounts.

Similarly, consider ways to accelerate deductions into 2023. If you itemize deductions, you might accelerate some deductible expenses by making payments before year-end.

Some examples:

·       Consider paying medical expenses or bills in December rather than January, if doing so will allow you to qualify for the medical expense deduction (must be more than 7.5% of your income).

·       Prepay deductible interest by accelerating your January mortgage payment into December.

·       Make January alimony payments in December

·       Make next year’s charitable contributions in December

·       Pay state and local taxes (income taxes, property taxes, use taxes, etc.) if you’re below the $10,000 maximum allowed itemized deduction for state and local taxes

·       Purchase that piece of equipment or vehicle needed in your business and place it in service by year-end

Sometimes, however, it may make sense to take the opposite approach — accelerating income into 2023 and postponing deductible expenses to 2024. That might be the case, for example, if you can project that you’ll be in a higher tax bracket in 2024; paying taxes this year instead of next might be outweighed by the fact that the income would be taxed at a higher rate next year.

Factor in the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT)

Although the number of taxpayers subject to the AMT is much lower than in prior years, make sure that you factor in the alternative minimum tax when deciding to accelerate any deductions. If you’re subject to the AMT, traditional year-end maneuvers, like deferring income and accelerating deductions, can have a potentially negative effect. That’s because the AMT — essentially a separate, parallel income tax with its own rates and rules — effectively disallows several itemized deductions. For example, if you’re subject to the AMT in 2023, prepaying 2024 state and local taxes won’t help your 2023 tax situation but could potentially hurt your 2024 bottom line.

Special Concerns for Higher-Income Individuals

The top marginal tax rate (37%) applies if your taxable income exceeds $578,125 in 2023 ($692,750 if married filing jointly, $346,875 if married filing separately, $578,100 if head of household). Your long-term capital gains and qualifying dividends could be taxed at a maximum 20% tax rate if your taxable income exceeds $492,300 in 2023 ($553,850 if married filing jointly, $276,900 if married filing separately, $523,050 if head of household).

Additionally, a 3.8% net investment income tax (unearned income Medicare contribution tax) may apply to some or all of your net investment income if your modified AGI exceeds $200,000 ($250,000 if married filing jointly, $125,000 if married filing separately).

High-income individuals are subject to an additional 0.9% Medicare (hospital insurance) payroll tax on wages exceeding $200,000 ($250,000 if married filing jointly or $125,000 if married filing separately).

Charitable Contribution Planning

If you are planning to donate to a charity, it’s likely better to make your contribution before the end of the year to potentially save on taxes. There are many tax planning strategies surrounding charitable giving:

·       Consider donating appreciated property (such as securities, real estate, or artwork) that has been held for more than one year, rather than cash. Note that an appraisal may be needed for certain properties. Not only do you get a deduction for the fair market value (FMV) of your appreciated stock, but you save on taxes by not recognizing the capital gains on the appreciation.

·       Opening and funding a donor-advised fund (DAF) is appealing to many as it allows for a fully tax-deductible gift in the current year and the ability to dole out those funds to charities over multiple years. Again, if you donate appreciated securities to a DAF, not only do you get a deduction for the FMV of your appreciated stock, but you save on taxes by not recognizing the capital gains on appreciation.

·       Qualified charitable distributions (QCDs) up to $100,000 are another option for certain older taxpayers (age 70-1/2 or older) who don’t typically itemize on their tax returns. If you don’t have a required minimum distribution (RMD) from your retirement accounts (see below), this will help reduce future RMDs and taxable income. If you do have an RMD requirement from your retirement accounts, this could be an even better strategy for you to reduce your current taxable income.

Note that it’s important to have adequate documentation of all claimed donations, including a letter from the charity for donations of $250 or more.

Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs)

Unfortunately, you cannot keep retirement funds in your account indefinitely. RMDs are the minimum amount you must annually withdraw from your retirement accounts once you reach a certain age (generally now age 73). Failure to do so can result in significant penalties (special rules apply if you’re still working and participating in your employer’s retirement plan). You must make the withdrawals by the date required — the end of the year for most individuals.

As described above, there are also opportunities to distribute retirement funds to a qualified charity to satisfy the RMD without incurring taxes. Missed RMDs are subject to steep excise tax penalties (25%), although recent rules greatly reduce the penalty (to 10%) if the missed RMD is taken within two years.

Digital Assets and Virtual Currency

Digital assets are defined under the U.S. income tax rules as any digital representation of value that may function as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, or a store of value. Digital assets may include virtual currencies such as Bitcoin and Ether, Stablecoins such as Tether and USD Coin (USDC), and non-fungible tokens (NFTs).

The sale or exchange of virtual currencies, the use of such currencies to pay for goods or services, or holding such currencies as an investment, generally have tax impacts –– and the IRS continues to increase its scrutiny in this area. The trading and use of digital assets must be disclosed on your tax returns and, since they are considered property rather than investments, different tax rules apply to their sales and exchanges.

Energy tax credits

From electric vehicles to home car chargers to solar panels, “going green” continues to provide tax incentives. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 included new and newly expanded tax credits for solar panels, electric vehicles (EV), and energy-efficient home improvements. The rules are complex but there is still time for these credits to be beneficial in the current and next year. The most notable change to the EV credits is the requirement that the vehicle has final assembly in North America. If you are planning an EV purchase, please ask the dealer whether the vehicle you’re eyeing is on the list of qualifying vehicles, which has changed significantly in the past years. See if they can advance the credit to you as an offset to the vehicle purchase price (you’ll have to sign a form to assign the credit to the dealer.)

Bump Up Withholding to Avoid 2024 Underpayment

If it looks as though you will owe federal income tax for the year, consider increasing your withholding on Form W-4 for 2024 with your employer (also consider doing the same on the appropriate state withholding forms). The biggest advantage in doing so is that withholding is considered as having been paid evenly throughout the year instead of when the dollars are taken from your paycheck. This strategy can be used instead of making quarterly estimated tax payments.

If you’re collecting social security, a pension, or taxable IRA distributions, update your Form W-4P with the appropriate payor to ensure you’ve paid in enough to avoid underpayment penalties.

Beneficial Ownership Interest (BOI) Reporting

The Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) requires the disclosure of the beneficial ownership information of certain entities to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) starting in 2024. This is not a tax filing requirement, but an online report to be completed if applicable to FinCEN. There are severe penalties for businesses who willingly do not comply with the requirements. The details of this reporting requirement are still being written, so it’s best to get in touch with your business attorney to determine whether your corporation, partnership, or LLC must file this report.

Additional Tax and Financial Planning Considerations

We recommend you review your retirement plans at least annually. That includes making the most of tax-advantaged retirement saving options, such as traditional individual retirement accounts (IRAs), Roth IRAs, and company retirement plans. It’s also advisable to take advantage of health savings accounts (HSAs) that can help you reduce your taxes and save for medical-related expenses. Once you become eligible or sign up for Medicare, you are no longer entitled to make HSA contributions.

IRAs and Retirement Plans

Make sure you’re taking full advantage of tax-advantaged retirement savings vehicles. Traditional IRAs and employer-sponsored retirement plans such as 401(k) plans allow you to contribute funds on a deductible (if you qualify) or pre-tax basis, reducing your 2023 taxable income. Contributions to a Roth IRA (assuming you meet the income requirements) or a Roth 401(k) aren’t deductible since they are made with post-tax dollars, so there’s no tax benefit for 2023, but qualified Roth distributions are completely free from federal income tax, which can make these retirement savings vehicles appealing.

For 2023, you can contribute up to $22,500 to a 401(k) plan ($30,000 if you’re age 50 or older) and up to $6,500 to a traditional IRA or Roth IRA ($7,500 if you’re age 50 or older). The window to make 2023 contributions to an employer plan typically closes at the end of the year, while you generally have until the April tax return filing deadline (April 15, 2024) to make 2023 IRA contributions.

If you started a small business in 2023, talk to your financial or tax advisor about setting up a small business retirement plan before year-end. Most plans must be set up before year-end, but contributions may not be required every year, and they don’t have to be made until the due date of the return (plus extensions). Some small business retirement plans can be set up at tax return time (e.g., SEP-IRA), but they have less contribution flexibility and more stringent rules than other plans (e.g., a solo 401(k)).

Roth IRA Conversions

Year-end is a good time to evaluate whether it makes sense to convert a tax-deferred savings vehicle like a traditional IRA or a 401(k) account to a Roth account. When you convert a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA, or a traditional 401(k) account to a Roth 401(k) account, the converted funds are generally subject to federal income tax in the year that you make the conversion (except to the extent that the funds represent nondeductible after-tax contributions).

If a Roth conversion does make sense, you’ll want to give some thought to the timing of the conversion. For example, if you believe that you’ll be in a better tax situation this year than next (e.g., you will pay tax on the converted funds at a lower rate this year), you might think about acting now rather than waiting. Whether a Roth conversion is appropriate for you depends on many factors, including your current and projected future income tax rates and whether you have the funds to pay the taxes outside of the IRA. Ask your financial or tax advisor whether a Roth Conversion is appropriate for this year or next.

Other Ideas

·       Life changes –– Any major changes in your life such as marriages or divorces, births or deaths in the family, job or employment changes, starting a business, and significant expenditures (real estate purchases, college tuition payments, etc.) can significantly impact the taxes you owe, so be sure to discuss them with your tax or financial advisor.

·       Capital gains/losses –– Consider tax benefits related to using capital losses to offset realized gains –– and move any gains to the lowest tax brackets, if possible. Also, consider selling portfolio investments that are underperforming before the end of the year. Net capital losses can offset up to $3,000 of the current year’s ordinary income. The unused excess net capital loss can be carried forward to use in subsequent years.

·       Estate and gift tax planning –– Make sure you’re appropriately planning for estate and gift tax purposes. There is an annual exclusion for gifts ($17,000 per donee in 2023, $34,000 for married couples) to help save on potential future estate taxes. If your estate/trust is worth over $5 million, it’s imperative to discuss your options with a dedicated estate planning attorney to review lifetime gift and generation-skipping transfer (GST) opportunities to use and plan additional exclusions and exemption amounts.

·       State and local taxes –– Remote working arrangements or moving your residency could potentially have state and local tax implications to consider. Be sure to discuss your working arrangements with your tax advisor.

·       Education planning –– Save for education with Section 529 education savings plans. There can be state income tax benefits to do so, and there have been changes in the way these funds can be used for private K-12 school expenses, paying down some student loans, or contributing leftover funds to Roth IRAs.

·       Updates to financial records –– Determine whether any updates are needed to your insurance policies or beneficiary designations. This should be checked at least once a year, and year-end is a good time to do so.

·       Estimated tax payments –– With underpayment interest rates being on the rise (currently at 8% for federal), you must review withholding and estimated tax payments and assess any requirements for any additional payments. The 4th quarter 2023 estimated income tax payment is due by January 16, 2024.

Hopefully one or more of the above tips helps you save a few dollars on your tax bill. By necessity, many of the tips are abbreviated, so be sure to check with your financial or tax advisor to ensure that they’re appropriate for your tax situation, both currently and in the future.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other tax or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so are your financial plan and investment objectives.

Posted in Financial Planning, General, IRA, retirement planning, tax planning. Leave a Comment »

Is a Recession Looming?

July 31, 2023 — Sam H. Fawaz

With inflation falling, the housing market stabilizing, and consumer spending showing surprising resiliency in the face of rising interest rates, both Wall Street and Main Street are passionately embracing the outlook for an economic soft landing.

Despite enthusiastic buying in the stock market of late, some major recession warning flags have not disappeared, consumer financial stress is increasing, and the Federal Reserve has just increased short-term interest rates by another 0.25% to 5.25%, and signaled that they may not be done raising interest rates.

The question on everyone’s mind: is a recession looming?

To answer that question, with help and data from InvesTech Research, let’s look at both sides: the economic “soft-landing” camp and the “hard-landing” camp, and see if we can’t draw any conclusions using a weight-of-evidence approach.

Evidence Supporting a Soft Landing

Inflation is Coming Down: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is leading the optimistic charge in the media, with reports of decreasing inflation over the last twelve months. Headline CPI fell from 4.0% to 3.0% in June on a year-over-year basis. While much of this decline was driven by cyclical factors like energy costs, it still increases the odds of a soft landing.

Contributing to the decrease in overall prices are both the manufacturing and services sectors. The services sector saw inflationary pressures subside starting in early 2022. The Institute for Supply Management Services Prices Paid Index has declined by 30.4 points from its all-time high in December 2021. It has been down for the last seven out of eight months and remains in expansion territory (for now). This, too, supports a possible soft landing.

With decreasing inflation comes decreasing inflation psychology. Recently, consumers have reduced their expectations of inflation over the next year significantly. This measure fell in June to 3.3%, its largest decline since 2008, while the longer-term 5-year expectations remain more firmly anchored at 3.0%.

Actual inflation partially depends on what consumers expect it to be. If consumers expect inflation to be lower next year, businesses will plan to price their goods or services accordingly. It’s likely that the expected inflation rate will continue its downtrend and make a soft landing more likely.

Parts of the economy remain surprisingly resilient: In addition to easing inflation pressures, persistent strength in parts of the economy also supports a potential soft landing. Specifically, the service sector appears to remain resilient.

Services: The Institute for Supply Management Services Index (Non-Manufacturing) remains solidly in expansion territory with a reading of 53.9 last month (any reading above 50 is considered expansionary) and only one month of contraction in the last decade (outside of the pandemic). With services accounting for over 75% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), the current Index levels show continued growth. While there is no guarantee this will be maintained, its recent strength provides recession-free hope.

Labor: The relentlessly tight labor market has remained a stronghold of the economy for the last few years. June’s Non-Farm Payrolls report showed 209,000 new jobs created, another banner month for this indicator. The monthly average of new jobs added since January 2022 is almost twice as high as it was during the same period in 2018-2019 prior to the pandemic. In addition, the unemployment rate is currently at 3.6%, just fractionally above its 50-year low. With job growth holding up so well, it doesn’t point to a recession, despite being a heavily revised figure.

Housing: The last bit of soft-landing evidence is one of its strongest – New Home Sales. Sales of new construction have rebounded sharply. New homes currently account for a near-record 29% of all homes for sale, while the historical average is less than half that at just 13%. This recent rebound is driven by a resurgence in enthusiastic buyer psychology, reflected in a rise in traffic of prospective buyers and a reluctance by existing homeowners to sell their homes because of: 1) their current ultra-low mortgage interest rates, 2) higher home replacement costs and 3) potential capital gains taxes on highly appreciated primary residences. Whether this increase is sustainable will be clearer in the coming months.

Evidence Supporting a Hard Landing

A recession may nonetheless be in the cards: While I’ve laid out the evidence in support of a soft landing, many significant indicators just don’t add up, and therefore a recession may still be in the cards.

Leading Economic Index (LEI): The most glaring evidence against a soft landing is the Conference Board’s LEI, which has fallen for 15 consecutive months. Declines of this magnitude have always corresponded to a hard landing, and when the LEI falls below its 18-month moving average, a recession almost invariably follows. Additionally, the LEI’s 6-month rate of change (ROC) is deeply negative, further solidifying this warning flag (red flags are when the 6-month ROC breaks through the zero level prior to a recession). The LEI is historically a reliable indicator, and it is not sending an optimistic signal.

Yield Spreads: Another indicator that is screaming hard landing is the Federal Reserve’s Yield Spread model, which measures the risk of recession in the next 12 months. It’s based on the difference between long-term and short-term Treasury bond yields and recently hit a 42-year high of 71% before retreating slightly to 67% in June. This highly dependable indicator has never reached this level without a resulting recession, although lead times can vary significantly.

Consumer Spending: Lastly, consumer spending has supported the economy for much of the last few years, bolstered by trillions of dollars in stimulus payments and other benefits. Excess savings and lockdowns have helped fuel this strength, though it may be starting to slow.

Within retail sales, “Same-Store Sales” measures growth in revenue from existing (not new) store locations.  Johnson Redbook’s latest Same-Store Sales year-over-year figure went negative, indicating fewer purchases compared to a year ago. If this continues to deteriorate, it implies consumers are spending less overall than before, and a recession becomes more probable.

The Federal Reserve’s (a.k.a. The Fed) job is far from over: A potential soft landing combined with some weak economic indicators is a conundrum that puts the Fed in a tight spot. In addition, while headed in the right direction, inflation is still well above the Fed’s 2% target.

Sticky inflation, which tracks items that change in price very slowly, has not come down as rapidly as overall measures. Sticky Price CPI from the Atlanta Fed has started to decline on a 12-month ROC basis but is still quite elevated, with the current reading at 5.8%.

The shorter, 3-month annualized ROC is much lower but still not close enough to the Fed’s target. It’s very likely that Sticky CPI will continue to decline, but the elusive 2.0% will take much longer to reach than the Fed would like.

Core PCE: Yet another, perhaps more important, inflation indicator is the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which measures PCE excluding food and energy. This is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation and remains at more than twice of the 2.0% inflation target. On Friday, the latest PCE measure came in at 4.1% YoY for June, declining from 4.6% in May.

Making the situation even worse, Core PCE has been flat for the past year and is falling very slowly. Even if it does start to trend lower, it will take quite a long time to reach the target level, putting pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer.

Wage Growth: When it comes to inflation, one of the stickiest components is wage growth. The labor market remains tight, there are still more job openings than available employees, and wages continue to rise. The Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker is off its all-time high, but at 5.6%, it is still far above its historical average. While increasing wages are beneficial for consumers, it’s a problem for the Fed as failure to control wage growth could risk another inflation surge.

Consumer Distress as a Potential Systemic Risk: Consumers amassed over $2 trillion in excess savings after the pandemic, primarily due to government support and lockdowns. This backlog of cash has helped smooth over many underlying problems in the economy.  After lockdowns ended, consumers spent as if they had unlimited funds. Tack on a decades-high level of inflation, and they’ve now burned through over 80% of their excess savings. Based on current trends, these savings will be completely exhausted by the end of this year. Once savings are depleted, some consumers will likely resort to what is now very expensive revolving debt.

And some already have. Despite the amassed excess savings in some households, consumers still took on more debt than ever after the pandemic. As a result, the combination of auto loans, credit card debt, student loans, and other debt is now at a record high – 72% higher than during the Great Financial Crisis.

Regarding student loan debt, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau reported that half of borrowers whose payments are scheduled to restart soon have other debts that are at least 10% more expensive now than before the pandemic. If these trends persist, consumers may struggle to bring their savings back to pre-pandemic levels.

Those who have opened new credit cards in recent years or regularly carry credit card debt are quickly coming under more severe financial stress. Monetary tightening has driven average credit card interest rates to over 22% in May – the highest rate since the Federal Reserve began tracking the data in late 1994. Extremely high credit card interest rates combined with record consumer debt outstanding could prove to be an ominous combination.

Consumer spending is the ultimate driver of the economy, making up almost 70% of GDP. If consumers can no longer afford to spend, this systemic risk can become a reality.

The Weight of Evidence

While the evidence is compelling in both the economic soft-landing and the hard-landing camps, more upcoming near-term economic data will help tip the scale solidly into one of the camps.

While it’s easy to say that a recession is inevitable, one could make that statement anytime during our lifetimes. Indeed, it’s not a matter of whether we’ll have a recession because we will. It’s all about the “when” of the recession.

In my opinion, the weight of current evidence supports a recession starting within six months. To be honest, I personally thought we were already in a recession, but the economic data has not supported that opinion, which means I have been wrong so far.

Regardless, a continued deterioration in consumer spending, increasing debt levels, growing layoffs, and higher short-term interest rates will have a detrimental impact on consumer confidence, which constitutes a negative feedback loop that will lead to even further reduced consumer spending and increasing layoffs.

The next few months will be very revealing…. if not exciting!

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so are your financial plan and investment objectives.

Source: Investech Research

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