There’s Still Time to Fund an IRA for 2022

March 31, 2023 — Sam H. Fawaz

The tax filing deadline is fast approaching, which means time is running out to fund an IRA for 2022.

If you had earned income as an employee or self-employed person last year, you may be able to contribute up to $6,000 for 2022 ($7,000 for those age 50 or older by December 31, 2022) up until your tax return due date, excluding extensions. For most people, that date is Tuesday, April 18, 2023.

You can contribute to a traditional IRA, a Roth IRA, or both. Total contributions cannot exceed the annual limit or 100% of your taxable compensation, whichever is less. You may also be able to contribute to an IRA for your spouse for 2022, even if your spouse didn’t have earned income.

Traditional IRA contributions may be deductible

If you and your spouse were not covered by a work-based retirement plan in 2022, your traditional IRA contributions are fully tax deductible.

If you were covered by a work-based plan, you can take a full deduction if you’re single and had a 2022 modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) of $68,000 or less, or if married filing jointly, with a 2022 MAGI of $109,000 or less. You may be able to take a partial deduction if your MAGI fell within the following limits:

Filing as:MAGI is between:
Single/Head of household$68,000 and $78,000*
Married filing jointly$109,000 and $129,000*
Married filing separately$0 and $10,000*
*No deduction is allowed if your MAGI is more than the above listed maximum MAGI.

If you were not covered by a work-based plan but your spouse was, you can take a full deduction if your joint MAGI was $204,000 or less, a partial deduction if your MAGI fell between $204,000 and $214,000, and no deduction if your MAGI was $214,000 or more.

Consider Roth IRAs as an alternative

If you can’t make a deductible traditional IRA contribution, a Roth IRA may be a more appropriate alternative. Although Roth IRA contributions are not tax-deductible, investment earnings and qualified distributions** are tax-free.

You can make a full Roth IRA contribution for 2022 if you’re single and your MAGI was $129,000 or less, or if married filing jointly, with a 2022 MAGI of $204,000 or less.

Partial contributions may be allowed if your MAGI fell within the following limits:

Filing as:MAGI is between:
Single/Head of household$129,000 and $144,000*
Married filing jointly$204,000 and $214,000*
Married filing separately$0 and $10,000*
*You cannot contribute if your MAGI is more than the above listed maximum MAGI.

Tip: If you can’t make an annual contribution to a Roth IRA because of the income limits, there is a workaround, often referred to as a “Backdoor Roth IRA” contribution. You can make a nondeductible contribution to a traditional IRA and then immediately convert that traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. Keep in mind, however, that you’ll need to aggregate all traditional IRAs and SEP/SIMPLE IRAs you own — other than IRAs you’ve inherited — when you calculate the taxable portion of your conversion.

**A qualified distribution from a Roth IRA can be made after the account is held for at least five years and the account owner reaches age 59½, becomes disabled, or dies. Under this so called 5-year rule, if you make a contribution  — no matter how small — to a Roth IRA for 2022 by your tax return due date, and it is your first Roth IRA contribution, your five-year holding period starts on January 1, 2022. Regardless of your Roth contribution’s holding period, in an emergency, you can withdraw your Roth IRA contributions (not the earnings) without penalty at any time.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Posted in estate planning, Financial Planning, General, IRA, retirement planning, tax planning. Leave a Comment »

SECURE 2.0 Changes the Required Minimum Distribution Rules

February 26, 2023 — Sam H. Fawaz

The SECURE 2.0 legislation included in the $1.7 trillion appropriations bill passed late last year builds on changes established by the original “Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act” (SECURE 1.0) enacted in 2019. SECURE 2.0 includes significant changes to the rules that apply to required minimum distributions from IRAs and employer retirement plans. Here’s what you need to know.

What Are Required Minimum Distributions or RMDs?

Required minimum distributions, sometimes referred to as RMDs or minimum required distributions, are amounts that the federal government requires you to withdraw annually from traditional IRAs and employer retirement plans after you reach a certain age or, in some cases, retire. You can withdraw more than the minimum amount from your IRA or plan in any year, but if you withdraw less than the required minimum, you will be subject to a federal tax penalty.

The RMD rules are designed to spread out the distribution of your entire interest in an IRA or plan account over your lifetime. The RMD rules aim to ensure that funds are utilized during retirement instead of remaining untouched and benefiting from continued tax deferral until left as an inheritance. RMDs generally have the effect of producing taxable income during your lifetime.

These lifetime distribution rules apply to traditional IRAs, Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRAs, and Savings Incentive Match Plan for Employees (SIMPLE) IRAs, as well as qualified pension plans, qualified stock bonus plans, and qualified profit-sharing plans, including 401(k) plans. Section 457(b) plans and Section 403(b) plans are also subject to these rules. If you are uncertain whether the RMD rules apply to your employer plan, you should consult your plan administrator or us.

Here is a brief overview of how the new legislation changes the RMD rules.

1. Applicable Age for RMDs Increased

Before the passage of the SECURE 1.0 legislation in 2019, RMDs were generally required to start after reaching age 70½. The 2019 legislation changed the required starting age to 72 for those who had not yet reached age 70½ before January 1, 2020.

SECURE 2.0 raises the trigger age for required minimum distributions to age 73 for those who reach age 72 after 2022. It increases the age again to age 75, starting in 2033. So, here’s a summary of when you have to start taking RMDs based on your date of birth:

Date of BirthAge at Which RMDs Must Commence
Before July 1, 194970½
July 1, 1949, through 195072
1951 to 195973
1960 or later175

Your first RMD is for the year you reach the age specified in the chart and generally must be taken by April 1 of the year following the year you reached that age. Subsequent required distributions must be taken by the end of each calendar year. So, if you wait until April 1 of the year after you attain your required beginning age, you’ll have to take two required distributions during that calendar year. If you continue working past your required beginning age, you may delay RMDs from your current employer’s retirement plan until after you retire.

1 A technical correction is needed to clarify the transition from age 73 to age 75 for purposes of the RMD rule. As currently written, it is unclear what the correct starting age is for an individual born in 1959 who reaches age 73 in the year 2032.

2. RMD Penalty Tax Decreased

The penalty for failing to take a RMD is steep — historically, a 50% excise tax on the amount by which you fell short of the required distribution amount.

SECURE 2.0 reduces the RMD tax penalty to 25% of the shortfall, effective this year. Still steep, but better than 50%.

Also effective this year, the Act establishes a two-year period to correct a failure to take a timely RMD distribution, with a resulting reduction in the tax penalty to 10%. Basically, if you self-correct the error by withdrawing the required funds and filing a return reflecting the tax during that two-year period, you can qualify for the lower penalty tax rate.

3. Lifetime RMDs from Roth Employer Accounts Eliminated

Roth IRAs have never been subject to lifetime RMDs. That is, a Roth IRA owner does not have to take RMDs from the Roth IRA while he or she is alive. Distributions to beneficiaries are required after the Roth IRA owner’s death, however.

The same has not been true for Roth employer plan accounts, including Roth 401(k) and Roth 403(b) accounts. Plan participants have been required to take minimum distributions from these accounts upon reaching their RMD age or avoid this requirement by rolling over the funds in the Roth employer plan account to a Roth IRA.

Beginning in 2024, the SECURE 2.0 legislation eliminates the lifetime RMD requirements for all Roth employer plan account participants, even those participants who had already commenced lifetime RMDs. Any lifetime RMD from a Roth employer account attributable to 2023 but payable in 2024 is still required.

4. Additional Option for Spouse Beneficiaries of Employer Plans

The SECURE 2.0 legislation provides that, beginning in 2024, when a participant has designated his or her spouse as the sole beneficiary of an employer plan, a special option is available if the participant dies before RMDs have commenced.

This provision will permit a surviving spouse to elect to be treated as the employee, similar to the already existing provision that allows a surviving spouse who is the sole designated beneficiary of an inherited IRA to elect to be treated as the IRA owner. This will generally allow a surviving spouse the option to delay the start of RMDs until the deceased employee would have reached the appropriate RMD age or until the surviving spouse reaches the appropriate RMD age, whichever is more beneficial. This will also generally allow the surviving spouse to utilize a more favorable RMD life expectancy table to calculate distribution amounts.

5. New Flexibility Regarding Annuity Options

Starting in 2023, the SECURE 2.0 legislation makes specific changes to the RMD rules that allow for some additional flexibility for annuities held within qualified employer retirement plans and IRAs. Allowable options may include:

  • Annuity payments that increase by a constant percentage provided certain requirements are met.
  • Lump-sum payment options that shorten the annuity payment period
  • Acceleration of annuity payments payable over the ensuing 12 months
  • Payments in the nature of dividends
  • A final payment upon death that does not exceed premiums paid less total distributions made

It is important to understand that purchasing an annuity in an IRA or an employer-sponsored retirement plan provides no additional tax benefits beyond those available through the tax-deferred retirement plan. If you plan to purchase an annuity in your IRA, you should talk to us or your financial planner first. Qualified annuities are typically purchased with pre-tax money, so withdrawals are fully taxable as ordinary income, and withdrawals before age 59½ may be subject to a 10% federal tax penalty.

These are just a few of the many provisions in the SECURE 2.0 legislation. The rules regarding RMDs are complicated. While the changes described here provide significant benefits to individuals, the rules remain difficult to navigate, and you should consult a tax professional like us to discuss your individual situation.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any RMD planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so are your financial plan and investment objectives.

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Some Cures For Your “Social InSecurity”

July 27, 2022 — Sam H. Fawaz

One of the most common questions I hear from clients and prospects concerns the viability of the social security system and the likelihood it will be solvent enough to pay their benefits when they eventually reach retirement age. Their default instinct is to draw social security at the earliest possible age in case benefits were to run out prematurely. As you’ll read below, the Social Security program has many possible tweaks to help extend the payment of benefits for many decades to come and should help alleviate much of your Social InSecurity.

With approximately 94% of American workers covered by Social Security and 65 million people currently receiving benefits, keeping Social Security healthy is a major concern. According to the Social Security Administration, Social Security isn’t in danger of going broke — it’s financed primarily through payroll taxes — but its financial health is declining, and future benefits may eventually be reduced unless Congress acts.

Each year, the Trustees of the Social Security Trust Funds release a detailed report to Congress that assesses the financial health and outlook of this program. The most recent report, released on June 2, 2022, shows that the effects of the pandemic were not as significant as projected in last year’s report — a bit of good news this year.

Overall, the news is mixed for Social Security

The Social Security program consists of two programs, each with its own financial account (trust fund) that holds the payroll taxes that are collected to pay Social Security benefits. Retired workers, their families, and survivors of workers receive monthly benefits under the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) program; disabled workers and their families receive monthly benefits under the Disability     Insurance (DI) program. Other income (reimbursements from the General Fund of the U.S. Treasury and income tax revenue from benefit taxation) is also deposited in these accounts.

Money that’s not needed in the current year to pay benefits and administrative costs is invested (by law) in special government-guaranteed Treasury bonds that earn interest. Over time, the Social Security Trust Funds have built up reserves that can be used to cover benefit obligations if payroll tax income is insufficient to pay full benefits, and these reserves are now being drawn down. Due to the aging population and other demographic factors, contributions from workers are no longer enough to fund current benefits.

In the latest report, the Trustees estimate that Social Security will have funds to pay full retirement and survivor benefits until 2034, one year later than in last year’s report. At that point, reserves will be used up, and payroll tax revenue alone would be enough to pay only 77% of scheduled OASI benefits, declining to 72% through 2096, the end of the 75-year, long-range projection period.

The Disability Insurance Trust Fund is projected to be much healthier over the long term than last year’s report predicted. The Trustees now estimate that it will be able to pay full benefits through the end of 2096. Last year’s report projected that it would be able to pay scheduled benefits only until 2057. Applications for disability benefits have been declining substantially since 2010, and the number of workers receiving disability benefits has been falling since 2014, a trend that continues to affect the long-term outlook.

According to the Trustees report, the combined reserves (OASDI) will be able to pay scheduled benefits until 2035, one year later than in last year’s report. After that, payroll tax revenue alone should be sufficient to pay 80% of scheduled benefits, declining to 74% by 2096. OASDI projections are hypothetical, because the OASI and DI Trust Funds are separate, and generally one program’s taxes and     reserves cannot be used to fund the other program. However, this could be changed by Congress, and combining these trust funds in the report is a way to illustrate the financial outlook for Social Security as a whole.

All projections are based on current conditions and best estimates of likely future demographic, economic, and program-specific conditions, and the Trustees acknowledge that the course of the pandemic and future events may affect Social Security’s financial status.

You can view a copy of the 2022 Trustees report at ssa.gov.

Many options for improving the health of Social Security

The last 10 Trustees Reports have projected that the combined OASDI reserves will become depleted between 2033 and 2035. The Trustees continue to urge Congress to address the financial challenges facing these programs so that solutions will be less drastic and may be implemented gradually, lessening the impact on the public. Many options have been proposed, including the ones listed below. Combining some of these may help soften the impact of any one solution:

  • Raising the current Social Security payroll tax rate (currently 12.4%). Half is currently paid by the employee and half by the employer (self-employed individuals pay the full 12.4%). An immediate and permanent payroll tax increase of 3.24 percentage points to 15.64% would be needed to cover the long-range revenue shortfall.
  • Raising or eliminating the ceiling on wages subject to Social Security payroll taxes ($147,000 in 2022).
  • Raising the full retirement age beyond the currently scheduled age of 67 (for anyone born in 1960 or later).
  • Raising the early retirement age beyond the current age of 62.
  • Reducing future benefits. To address the long-term revenue shortfall, scheduled benefits would have to be immediately and permanently reduced by about 20.3% for all current and future beneficiaries, or by about 24.1% if reductions were applied only to those who initially become eligible for benefits in 2022 or later.
  • Changing the benefit formula that is used to calculate benefits.
  • Calculating the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for benefits differently.

A comprehensive list of potential solutions can be found at ssa.gov.

As for when Congress will act to fix the system, in my opinion, it will probably be at the last minute when it becomes a crisis. But make no mistake-Congress will act, and any rumors or stories that social security won’t be around for the long term are simply false. Any member of Congress who votes against fixing and extending the system’s heath won’t be re-elected, and therefore you know they eventually will.

As for when you should consider drawing your own social security benefits, the unsatisfying answer is: it depends. Whether you should draw benefits at your early retirement age (usually 62), full retirement age (usually 67) or latest retirement age (70), depends on your financial situation, your spending needs, expected longevity and other factors. Only working with a financial planner or a comprehensive social security optimizer can help you figure out the optimal timeframe to claim social security. The right or wrong decision can increase or decrease your lifetime benefits by five or six zeroes—it’s worth the time and effort to do the analysis. We can, of course, help.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss your social security benefits, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Posted in Elder Care, estate planning, Financial Planning, General, retirement, retirement planning, Social Security Benefits. Leave a Comment »

‘Tis the Season to Be Thinking about Charitable Giving

November 25, 2021 — Sam H. Fawaz

With the holiday season upon us and the end of the year approaching, we pause to give thanks for our blessings and the people in our lives. It is also a time when charitable giving often comes to mind. The tax benefits associated with charitable giving could potentially enhance your ability to give and should be considered as part of your year-end tax planning.

Tax deduction for charitable gifts

If you itemize deductions on your federal income tax return, you can generally deduct your gifts to qualified charities. This may also help potentially increase your gift.

Example(s): Assume you want to make a charitable gift of $1,000. One way to potentially enhance the  gift is to increase it by the amount of any income taxes you save with the charitable deduction for the gift. At a 24% tax rate, you might be able to give $1,316 to charity [$1,000 ÷ (1 – 24%) = $1,316; $1,316 x 24% = $316 taxes saved]. On the other hand, at a 32% tax rate, you might be able to give $1,471 to charity [$1,000 ÷ (1 – 32%) = $1,471; $1,471 x 32% = $471 taxes saved].

However, keep in mind that the amount of your deduction may be limited to certain percentages of your adjusted gross income (AGI). For example, your deduction for gifts of cash to public charities is generally limited to 60% of your AGI for the year, and other gifts to charity are typically limited to 30% or 20% of your AGI. Charitable deductions that exceed the AGI limits may generally be carried over and deducted over the next five years, subject to the income percentage limits in those years.

For 99% of the population, this limitation is never a problem.

Nonetheless, for 2021 charitable gifts, the normal rules have been enhanced: The limit is increased to 100% of AGI for direct cash gifts to public charities. And even if you don’t itemize deductions, you can receive a $300 charitable deduction ($600 for joint returns) for direct cash gifts to public charities (in addition to the standard deduction).

Make sure to retain proper substantiation of your charitable contribution. In order to claim a charitable deduction for any contribution of cash, a check, or other monetary gift, you must maintain a record of such contributions through a bank record (such as a cancelled check, a bank or credit union statement, or a credit-card statement) or a written communication (such as a receipt or letter) from the charity showing the name of the charity, the date of the contribution, and the amount of the contribution. If you claim a charitable deduction for any contribution of $250 or more, you must substantiate the contribution with a contemporaneous written acknowledgment of the contribution from the charity. A copy of a canceled check is no longer enough to substantiate your deduction. If you make any non-cash contributions, there are additional requirements.

Year-end tax planning

When making charitable gifts at the end of a year, you should consider them as part of your year-end tax planning. Typically, you have a certain amount of control over the timing of income and expenses. You generally want to time your recognition of income so that it will be taxed at the lowest rate possible, and time your deductible expenses so they can be claimed in years when you are in a higher tax bracket.

For example, if you expect to be in a higher tax bracket next year, it may make sense to wait and make the charitable contribution in January so that you can take the deduction next year when the deduction results in a greater tax benefit. Or you might shift the charitable contribution, along with other deductions, into a year when your itemized deductions would be greater than the standard deduction amount. And if the income percentage limits above are a concern in one year, you might consider ways to shift income into that year or shift deductions out of that year, so that a larger charitable deduction is available for that year. A tax professional can help you evaluate your individual tax situation.

If you want to “turbo-charge” your charitable deduction, consider donating appreciated securities (stocks, bonds, mutual funds, etc.) Not only do you get a deduction for full fair market value of the security, you also escape capital gain taxes on the appreciation you donated. If you want to donate securities that have gone down in value, it’s always better to sell them first, capture the capital loss, then donate the cash (there’s no inherent advantage in donating depreciated securities).

If you give more than $1,000 a year to charity, it may be time to consider a Donor Advised Fund (DAF). A DAF allows you to “bunch” your charitable deductions to allow you to itemize deductions when you might otherwise only qualify for the standard deduction. By funding the DAF with an amount large enough to put you over the standard deduction, you can make charitable “grants” over several years while getting a full deduction in the year that you fund the DAF. Keep in mind that money transferred into a DAF can never be removed, and the only beneficiaries of the DAF are qualified Section 501(c)(3) charities. You can set up a DAF with most major brokers at no cost, and some have no minimums. Talk to us if you’d like more information about setting one up.

A word of caution

Be sure to deal with recognized charities and be wary of charities with similar-sounding names. It is common for scam artists to impersonate charities using bogus websites, email, phone calls, social media, and in-person solicitations. Check out the charity on the IRS website, irs.gov, using the “Tax Exempt Organization Search” tool. And never send cash; contribute by check or credit card and be wary of those asking for cash donations, unless perhaps they’re standing in front of a red kettle.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss charitable giving or any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Posted in estate planning, Financial Planning, General, retirement planning, tax planning. Leave a Comment »

Tax Proposals in Congress Not as Bad as Feared

September 30, 2021 — Sam H. Fawaz

The latest tax bill advanced in Congress is notable in its absence of provisions that were expected to be “game changers” (see below). And that’s a good thing for taxpayers.

On Saturday, September 25, 2021, the Congressional House Budget Committee voted to advance a $3.5 trillion spending package to the House floor for debate. The House Ways and Means Committee and the Joint Committee on Taxation had previously released summaries of proposed tax changes intended to help fund the spending package. Many of these provisions focus specifically on businesses and high-income households.

Expect these proposals to be modified; some will likely be removed and others added as the legislative process continues. As we monitor progression through the legislative process though, here are some highlights from the previously released proposed provisions worth noting.

Corporate Income Tax Rate Increase

Corporations would be subject to a graduated tax rate structure, with a higher top rate.

Currently, a flat 20% rate applies to corporate taxable income. The proposed legislation would impose a top tax rate of 26.5% on corporate taxable income above $5 million. Specifically:

  • A 16% rate would apply to the first $400,000 of corporate taxable income
  • A 21% rate on remaining taxable income up to $5 million
  • The 26.5% rate would apply to taxable income over $5 million, and corporations making more than $10 million in taxable income would have the benefit of the lower tax rates phased out.

Personal service corporations (professionals providing services as a regular sub-chapter C Corporation, not an S Corporation) would pay tax on their entire taxable income at 26.5%.

Tax Increases for High-Income Individuals

Top individual income tax rate. The proposed legislation would increase the existing top marginal income tax rate of 37% to 39.6% effective in tax years starting on or after January 1, 2022, and apply it to taxable income over $450,000 for married individuals filing jointly, $425,000 for heads of households, $400,000 for single taxpayers, and $225,000 for married individuals filing separate returns. (These income thresholds are lower than the current top rate thresholds.)

Top capital gains tax rate. The top long-term capital gains tax rate would be raised from 20% to 25% under the proposed legislation; this increased tax rate would generally be effective for sales after September 13, 2021. In addition, the taxable income thresholds for the 25% capital gains tax bracket would be made the same as for the 39.6% regular income tax bracket (see above) starting in 2022.

New 3% surtax on income. A new 3% surtax is proposed on modified adjusted gross income over $5 million ($2.5 million for a married individual filing separately).

3.8% net investment income tax expanded. Currently, there is a 3.8% net investment income tax on high-income individuals. This tax would be expanded to cover certain other income derived in the ordinary course of a trade or business for single taxpayers with taxable income greater than $400,000 ($500,000 for joint filers). This would generally affect certain income of S corporation shareholders, partners, and limited liability company (LLC) members that is currently not subject to the net investment income tax.

New qualified business income deduction limit. A deduction is currently available for up to 20% of qualified business income from a partnership, S corporation, or sole proprietorship, as well as 20% of aggregate qualified real estate investment trust dividends and qualified publicly traded partnership income. The proposed legislation would limit the maximum allowable deduction at $500,000 for a joint return, $400,000 for a single return, and $250,000 for a separate return.

Retirement Plans Provisions Affecting High-Income Individuals

New limit on contributions to Roth and traditional IRAs. The proposed legislation would prohibit those with total IRA and defined contribution retirement plan accounts exceeding $10 million from making any additional contributions to Roth and traditional IRAs. The limit would apply to single taxpayers and married taxpayers filing separately with taxable income over $400,000,  $450,000 for married taxpayers filing jointly, and $425,000 for heads of household.

New required minimum distributions for large aggregate retirement accounts.

  • These rules would apply to high-income individuals (same income limits as described above), regardless of age.
  • The proposed legislation would require that individuals with total retirement account balances (traditional IRAs, Roth IRAs, employer-sponsored retirement plans) exceeding $20 million distribute funds from Roth accounts (100% of Roth retirement funds or, if less, by the amount total retirement account balances exceed $20 million).
  • To the extent that the combined balance in traditional IRAs, Roth IRAs, and defined contribution plans exceeds $10 million, distributions equal to 50% of the excess must be made.
  • The 10% early-distribution penalty tax would not apply to distributions required because of the $10 million or $20 million limits.

Roth conversions limited. In general, taxpayers can currently convert all or a portion of a non-Roth IRA or defined contribution plan account into a Roth IRA or defined contribution plan account without regard to the amount of their taxable income. The proposed legislation would prohibit Roth conversions for single taxpayers and married taxpayers filing separately with taxable income over $400,000, $450,000 for married taxpayers filing jointly, and $425,000 for heads of household. [It appears that this proposal would not be effective until 2032.]

Roth conversions not allowed for distributions that include nondeductible contributions. Taxpayers who are unable to make contributions to a Roth IRA can currently make “back-door” contributions by making nondeductible contributions to a traditional IRA and then shortly afterward convert the nondeductible contribution from the traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. It is proposed that amounts held in a non-Roth IRA or defined contribution account cannot be converted to a Roth IRA or designated Roth account if any portion of the distribution being converted consists of after-tax or nondeductible contributions.

Estates and Trusts

  • For estate and gift taxes (and the generation-skipping transfer tax), the current basic exclusion amount (and GST tax exemption) of $11.7 million would be cut by about one-half under the proposal.
  • The proposal would generally include grantor trusts in the grantor’s estate for estate tax purposes; tax rules relating to the sale of appreciated property to a grantor trust would also be modified to provide for taxation of gain.
  • Current valuation rules that generally allow substantial discounts for transfer tax purposes for an interest in a closely held business entity, such as an interest in a family limited partnership, would be modified to disallow any such discount for transfers of non-business assets.

Notable Absence of Certain Provisions

As mentioned above, what was just as notable is that many feared changes to longtime rules were not included in the proposal:

  • No increases to the current estate and gift tax marginal rates
  • No changes to the current step up basis regime at death
  • No limitations on like-kind exchanges
  • No required realization of gain on gifts or at death
  • No required realization of gain on assets held in trust, partnership or non-corporate entity after being held in trust for 90 years
  • The top capital gains rate for high-income taxpayers going up to “only” 25% instead of the expected 39.6%

Of course, things are quite fluid and much will change before the ultimate passage of the final tax bill. We’re following developments closely and will post and send updates as things approach passage.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Posted in estate planning, Financial Planning, General, retirement planning, small business, tax planning. Leave a Comment »

Making Your Money Last In Retirement

February 15, 2021 — Sam H. Fawaz

Quick Questions: How much can you safely withdraw each year from your retirement portfolio without the risk of running out of money before you run out of life? How much should you withdraw if you don’t want to leave too much money behind when you die?

If you’re as perplexed about answering these questions as many financial planners are, then this article will help update you on the latest research in this area of retirement planning. Saving for retirement is not easy, but using your retirement savings wisely can be just as challenging. Withdraw too much and you run the risk of running out of money. Withdraw too little and you may miss out on a more comfortable retirement lifestyle.

For more than 25 years, the most common guideline has been the “4% rule,” which suggests that a yearly withdrawal equal to 4% of the initial portfolio value, with annual increases for inflation, is sustainable over a 30-year retirement. This guideline can be helpful in projecting a savings goal and providing a realistic picture of the annual income your savings might provide. For example, a $1 million portfolio could provide $40,000 of income in the first year, with inflation-adjusted withdrawals in succeeding years.

The 4% rule has stimulated a great deal of discussion over the years, with some experts saying that 4% is too low, and others saying it’s too high. The most recent analysis comes from the man who studied it, financial professional William Bengen (widely considered in the financial planning profession as the “father of the safe withdrawal rate”), who believes the rule has been misunderstood and offers new insights based on new research.

Original Research

Bengen first published his findings in 1994, based on analyzing data for retirements beginning in 51 different years, from 1926 to 1976. He considered a hypothetical, conservative portfolio comprised of 50% large-cap stocks and 50% intermediate-term Treasury bonds held in a tax-advantaged account and rebalanced annually. A 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal was the highest sustainable rate in the worst-case scenario — retirement in October 1968, the beginning of a bear market, and a long period of high inflation. All other retirement years had higher sustainable rates, some as high as 10% or more (1).

Of course, no one can predict the future, which is why Bengen suggested that the worst-case scenario as a sustainable rate. He later adjusted it slightly upward to 4.5%, based on a more diverse portfolio comprised of 30% large-cap stocks, 20% small-cap stocks, and 50% intermediate-term Treasuries (2).

New Research

In October 2020, Bengen published new research that attempts to project a sustainable withdrawal rate based on two key factors at the time of retirement: stock market valuation and inflation (the annual change in the Consumer Price Index). In theory, when the market is expensive, it has less potential to grow, and sustaining increased withdrawals over time may be more difficult. On the other hand, lower inflation means lower inflation-adjusted withdrawals, allowing for a higher initial rate. For example, a $40,000 first-year withdrawal becomes an $84,000 withdrawal after 20 years with a 4% annual inflation increase, but just $58,000 with a 2% annual increase.

To measure market valuation, Bengen used the Shiller CAPE, a cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 index developed by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller. The price-earnings (P/E) ratio of a stock is the share price divided by its earnings per share for the previous 12 months. For example, if a stock is priced at $100 and the earnings per share is $4, the P/E ratio would be 25. The Shiller CAPE divides the total share price of stocks in the S&P 500 index by average inflation-adjusted earnings over 10 years.

5% rule?

Again using historical data — for retirement dates from 1926 to 1990 — Bengen found a clear correlation between market valuation and inflation at the time of retirement and the maximum sustainable withdrawal rate. Historically, rates ranged from as low as 4.5% to as high as 13%, but the scenarios that supported high rates were unusual, with very low market valuations and/or deflation rather than inflation (3).

For most of the last 25 years, the United States has experienced high market valuations, and inflation has been low since the Great Recession (4)(5). In a high-valuation, low-inflation scenario at the time of retirement, Bengen found that a 5% initial withdrawal rate was sustainable over 30 years (6). While not a big difference from the 4% rule, this suggests retirees could make larger initial withdrawals, particularly in a low-inflation environment.

One caveat is that current market valuation is extremely high: The S&P 500 index had a CAPE of 34.19 at the end of 2020, a level only reached (and exceeded) during the late-1990s dot-com boom and higher than any of the scenarios in Bengen’s research (7).  His range for a 5% withdrawal rate is a CAPE of 23 or higher, with inflation between 0% and 2.5% (8) (Inflation was 1.2% in November 2020 (9)). Bengen’s research suggests that if market valuation drops near the historical mean of 16.77, a withdrawal rate of 6% might be sustainable as long as inflation is 5% or lower. On the other hand, if valuation remains high and inflation surpasses 2.5%, the maximum sustainable rate might be 4.5% (10).

It’s important to keep in mind that these projections are based on historical scenarios and a hypothetical portfolio, and there is no guarantee that your portfolio will perform in a similar manner. Also remember that these calculations are based on annual inflation-adjusted withdrawals, and you might choose not to increase withdrawals in some years or use other criteria to make adjustments, such as market performance. For example, some retirees, in an effort to reduce withdrawals after a “down” year in the market, forego taking an inflation-based increase for the following year.

Although there is no assurance that working with a financial professional will improve your investment results, a professional can evaluate your objectives and available resources and help you consider appropriate long-term financial strategies, including your withdrawal strategy.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss your current or upcoming withdrawal rate, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

(1)(2) Forbes Advisor, October 12, 2020
(3)(4)(6)(8,)(10) Financial Advisor, October 2020
(5)(9) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2020
(7) multpl.com, December 31, 2020

Disclaimer: All investments are subject to market fluctuation, risk, and loss of principal. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. U.S. Treasury securities are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. The principal value of Treasury securities fluctuates with market conditions. If not held to maturity, they could be worth more or less than the original amount paid. Asset allocation and diversification are methods used to help manage investment risk; they do not guarantee a profit or protect against investment loss. Rebalancing involves selling some investments in order to buy others; selling investments in a taxable account could result in a tax liability.

The S&P 500 index is an unmanaged group of securities considered representative of the U.S. stock market in general. The performance of an unmanaged index is not indicative of the performance of any specific investment. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Actual results will vary.

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What’s Going on in the Markets for February 25, 2020

February 25, 2020 — Sam H. Fawaz

It wasn’t a pretty day for the stock market fans on Monday with one of the worst down days in over two years. Does that mean the market is doomed and that we’ve finally topped? Read on for some encouraging news on post-smack down days like Monday, with some help from my friend and fellow market writer Jon D. Markman.

Investors seemed to panic on Monday over a climb in corona virus infections outside of the Chinese epicenter and also started to discount the possibility that the Democrats might nominate capitalism antagonist Bernie Sanders.

The Dow Jones Industrials Average started with a gap down and 500-point slide, made a couple of feeble rebound attempts, then closed on its low at -1,031 points with a 3.5% loss. The S&P 500 fell 3.35%, the NASDAQ 100 fell 3.9% and the small-cap Russell 2000 index fell 2.9%. This puts us about 5% below all-time highs as measured by the S&P 500 index, a normal and frequent pull-back level.

It was a bad day for sure, but in no way historic. Slams of 3.5% occur about twice a year on average, with something like 100 instances since 1928. The Monday slide was just the 48th biggest one day drop for SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) since 1993. It was the worst Monday decline since way back on Feb. 5, 2018, when the SPY sank 4.18% for a reason nobody can quite remember.

Sure it’s sad that the corona virus has spread to Italy and other countries, but overseas events ranging from assassinations and full-blown wars to economic hardship and the ebola virus just don’t move the dial for U.S. investors, whose attitude is pretty much, “Sorry not sorry.”

This is a good time to remind you that the only reason markets care about the dreaded virus is that it could put a kink in global supply chains that reduce public companies’ recent guidance on future revenues and margins (i.e., overall corporate profits). So it’s really another recession scare, not a public health scare.

Investors are susceptible to the scare because global economic growth is already slow, with the latest annualized reading on eurozone GDP at just 1.4% and the U.S. not much better at 2.3%. That’s barely above stall speed, so it wouldn’t take much to knock the spinning top on its side. Nick Colas of DataTrek Research notes: “The combination of structurally low inflation, aging populations, and central bank balance sheet expansion has pulled long term interest rates lower, persistently signaling a brewing recessionary storm to market participants.”

As a result, investors ditched oil and gas assets in the wake of reports that the corona virus continues to infect more people worldwide. Iran, Italy and South Korea reported sharp increases in infections, according to Reuters. Italy now has the world’s third-largest concentration of corona virus cases and the economy is “vulnerable to disruption from the corona virus, being at serious risk of slipping into recession this quarter,” said analysts at Daiwa Capital Markets in a note Monday. I believe that a lot more evidence is needed to make the conclusion that we’re at risk of a near-term recession.

Besides, the market has gone up pretty much uninterrupted since the beginning of October 2018 and was very much overdue for a rest. Monday’s performance was a mere flesh wound to the charging bull (market).

The good news is that Bespoke (a market quantitative analysis firm) reports that 2%-plus drops on Mondays have historically been bought with a vengeance in the near term. Since March 2009, there have been 18 prior 2%+ drops on Mondays, and SPY (the exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500 index) has seen an average gain of 1.02% on the next day – which is how “Turnaround Tuesday” got its name.

Even more impressive, over the next week, SPY has averaged a huge gain of 3.16% with positive returns 17 out of 18 times. And over the next month, SPY has averaged a gain of 6.08% with positive returns 17 of 18 times as well. Anything can happen, of course–this is the stock market we’re talking about here.

The analysts also studied big declines on each day of the week. Turns out that in the month after 2%+ drops on Mondays, SPY has averaged a huge gain of 4.5%.

No guarantees, but investors tend to buy the trip when big stumbles start a week. Sure, it might be short-term, but the pullback so far merely takes back all of the gains we accumulated in February 2020, so we’re still slightly up on the year as measured by the S&P 500 index. Can it get worse? Of course, it can, but we need more evidence that the long term uptrend is in jeopardy.

Those that haven’t yet hedged their portfolios during this entire bull market run should consider trimming positions or reduce risk in their portfolios on any bounce. It never hurts to take some money off the table, as no one knows if we’ve topped or we’re on our ways to make new all-time highs again. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities-you should check with your advisor for the best approach that fits your goals, your risk tolerance and time-frame. For our client portfolios, we’ve done just that, and will do more of that should the pull-back deepen.

I think we’ll get a quick bounce back, and then the market tends to go back and test the lows after a few days. If that low holds, then that could signal that this short-term pullback is over. If it doesn’t, then more corrective work is needed to wring out some short-term excesses that are in the market.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

 

 

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A Last-Minute 2019 Holiday Gift from Congress

December 30, 2019 — Sam H. Fawaz

Leave it to Congress to pass a last-minute tax bill to cap off 2019 and send CPAs and estate planning attorneys scrambling. They call it the “Further Consolidated Appropriations Act” (FCAA). I call it the “CPA and Attorney Employment Security Bill.”

As a year-end holiday gift, Congress included a number of individual and business-friendly tax provisions in its year-end spending package that was signed into law by President Trump on December 20, 2019. The FCAA, (oddly considered a 2020 Act) brought back to life many deductions and credits that had expired at the end of 2017, as well as a few others that had either expired at the end of 2018 or were scheduled to expire at the end of 2019. In addition, new disaster-related tax provisions have been added and substantial changes were made to retirement-related tax provisions. Some of the funding for these changes will come from increases made to various penalty provisions – notably increases in the penalties for failing to timely file a tax return or timely pay the tax due.

To the extent that you could have benefited from any of the resurrected 2017 tax provisions on your 2018 tax return, we should file an amended return to claim any refunds you may be due. The 2020 Act changes may also affect your 2019 tax liability.

Some of the retirement-related (and quite significant) provisions which may be of interest to you include the following:

Repeal of Maximum Age for Traditional IRA Contributions

The prohibition on contributions to a traditional IRA by an individual who has attained age 70½ has been repealed.

Increase in Age for Required Beginning Date for Mandatory Distributions

The required beginning date for required minimum distributions has been increased to 72 years old from 70 ½ years old. The former rules continue to apply to employees and IRA owners who attain age 70½ prior to January 1, 2020. The new provision is effective for distributions required to be made after December 31, 2019, with respect to individuals who attain age 70½ after December 31, 2019.

Inherited IRA’s Must Be Distributed within 10 Years

A stretch IRA was an estate planning strategy that extended the tax-deferred status of an inherited IRA when it is passed to a non-spouse beneficiary. Theoretically, an IRA could be passed on from generation to generation while beneficiaries enjoyed tax-deferred and/or tax-free growth. The passage of this Act now shortens that period considerably.

Under the new law, most beneficiaries will have to withdraw all the distributions from their inherited account and pay taxes on it within 10 years. Exceptions are made for spouses, your minor children and the chronically ill or disabled.

For those who inherit an IRA after January 1, 2020, the stretch IRA is no longer available. For those who inherited an IRA before January 1, 2020, you can continue to defer your tax liability as usual.

If you have an estate plan that includes a pass-through trust as a beneficiary, you will need to set up an appointment with your estate planning attorney to avoid a potential tax “disaster” for trust beneficiaries at the conclusion of the 10th year. I will have more about this in a separate post soon. If you have minor children (or grandchildren) and don’t have a trust, you will want to talk to an estate planning attorney as well.

Penalty-Free Withdrawals from Retirement Plans for Individuals in Case of Birth of Child or Adoption

A new exception to the 10-percent early withdrawal tax applies in the case of a qualified birth or adoption distribution of up to $5,000 from an applicable eligible retirement plan. A qualified birth or adoption distribution is a distribution from an applicable eligible retirement plan to an individual if made during the one-year period beginning on the date on which a child of the individual is born or on which the legal adoption by the individual of an eligible adoptee is finalized. An eligible adoptee means any individual (other than a child of the taxpayer’s spouse) who has not attained age 18 or is physically or mentally incapable of self-support.

Certain Taxable Non-Tuition Fellowship and Stipend Payments Treated As Compensation for IRA Purposes

For tax years after 2019, an amount includible in an individual’s income and paid to the individual to aid the individual in the pursuit of graduate or postdoctoral study or research (such as a fellowship, stipend, or similar amount) is treated as compensation for purposes of IRA contributions.

 

The following is a recap of the provisions that have been extended and that may require the filing of an amended tax return for 2018.

Deduction for Qualified Tuition and Related Expenses

The deduction for qualified tuition and related expenses is now available for 2018, 2019, and 2020 and applies to qualified education expenses paid during the year for yourself, your spouse, or a dependent. The maximum deduction is $4,000 of expenses if your modified adjusted gross income does not exceed $65,000 ($130,000 in the case of a joint return). If your income is more than that, you can still deduct $2,000, as long as your adjusted gross income does not exceed $80,000 ($160,000 in the case of a joint return).

Expansion of Section 529 Plans

Several changes were made to the rules involving Section 529 plans – tax-advantaged savings plans designed to accumulate funds for future educational needs. First, tax-free distributions for higher education expenses now to apply to expenses for fees, books, supplies, and equipment required for the participation of a designated beneficiary in an apprenticeship program. The apprenticeship program must be registered and certified with the Secretary of Labor under Section 1 of the National Apprenticeship Act. Second, tax-free treatment applies to distributions of certain amounts used to make payments on the principal or interest of a qualified education loan. No individual may receive more than $10,000 of such distributions, in aggregate, over the course of the individual’s lifetime. Third, a special rule allows tax-free distributions to a sibling of a designated beneficiary (i.e., a brother, sister, stepbrother, or stepsister). This rule allows a 529 account holder to make a student loan distribution to a sibling of the designated beneficiary without changing the designated beneficiary of the account.

Treatment of Mortgage Insurance Premiums as Qualified Residence Interest

For 2018, 2019, and 2020, you can treat amounts paid during the year for qualified mortgage insurance as qualified residence interest. The insurance must be in connection with acquisition debt for a qualified residence.

Exclusion from Gross Income of Discharge of Qualified Principal Residence Indebtedness

For 2018, 2019, and 2020, gross income does not include the discharge of indebtedness of a taxpayer if the debt discharged is qualified principal residence indebtedness which is discharged before January 1, 2021.

Elimination of Certain Kiddie Tax Provisions

If you have a child that was subject to the new kiddie tax rules that went into effect in 2018, those rules have now been repealed retroactive to the date they were adopted. As a result, the onerous trust and estate tax rates that applied to the child’s unearned income in 2018 no longer apply. Similarly, the reduced AMT exemption amount for such children has been eliminated.

Nonbusiness Energy Property Credit

The nonbusiness energy property credit is extended to property placed in service in 2018, 2019, and 2020. The nonbusiness energy property credit is available for (1) 10 percent of the amounts paid or incurred for qualified energy efficiency improvements installed during the tax year, and (2) the amount of residential energy property expenditures paid or incurred during the tax year.

Alternative Fuel Refueling Property Credit

The credit for alternative fuel refueling property has been extended to property placed in service in 2018, 2019, and 2020. The credit is equal to 30 percent of the cost of any qualified alternative fuel vehicle refueling property placed in service by the taxpayer during the tax year.

Two-Wheeled Plug-In Electric Vehicle Credit

The credit available for the purchase of a qualified two-wheeled plug-in electric drive motor vehicle is extended to vehicles acquired in 2018, 2019, and 2020.

Other changes made by the 2020 Act which may affect your 2019 tax return and future tax returns includes the following:

Reduction in Medical Expense Deduction Floor

The floor for deducting medical expenses for 2019 and 2020 has been reduced from 10 percent of adjusted gross income to 7.5 percent of adjusted gross income. In addition, there is no adjustment to the medical expense deduction when computing the alternative minimum tax for 2019 and 2020.

 

Disaster-related provisions in the 2020 Act include the following:

Exception to Penalty for Using Retirement Funds

An exception to the 10-percent early withdrawal tax on a retirement-related distribution applies in the case of “qualified disaster distributions” from a qualified retirement plan, a Code Sec. 403(b) plan, or an individual retirement account (IRA). In addition, income attributable to a qualified disaster distribution may be included in income ratably over three years, and the amount of a qualified disaster distribution may be recontributed to an eligible retirement plan within three years. A “qualified disaster distribution” is any distribution from an eligible retirement plan made on or after the first day of the incident period of a qualified disaster and before June 18, 2020, to an individual whose principal place of abode at any time during the incident period is located in the qualified disaster area and who has sustained an economic loss by reason of such disaster, regardless of whether a distribution otherwise would be permissible.

Special Rules for Qualified Disaster-Related Personal Casualty Losses

Under a new provision, in the case of a qualified disaster-related personal casualty loss which arose as the result of a net disaster loss, such loss is deductible without regard to whether aggregate net losses exceed 10 percent of your adjusted gross income. In order to be deductible, however, such losses must exceed $500 per casualty. Such losses may be claimed in addition to the standard deduction and may be claimed even if you are subject to the alternative minimum tax.

Special Rule for Determining Earned Income

If you qualify, you may elect to calculate your earned income tax credit and additional child tax credit for an applicable tax year using your earned income from the prior tax year. Qualified individuals are permitted to make the election with respect to an applicable tax year only if their earned income for such tax year is less than their earned income for the preceding tax year. You are a qualified individual if (1) at any time during the incident period of a qualified disaster, you had your principal residence in the applicable qualified disaster zone, or (2) during any portion of such incident period, you were not in the applicable qualified disaster zone but your principal residence was in the applicable qualified disaster area and you were displaced from such principal place of abode by reason of the qualified disaster.

Automatic Extension of Filing Deadlines in the Case of Federally Declared Disasters

In the case of a federally declared disaster, qualified taxpayers get a mandatory 60-day extension period for filing and paying taxes.

Business Provisions

Please look to a separate post concerning business provisions from the Act to be posted on January 1, 2020.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

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2019 Year-End Tax Planning Tips & Traps

November 27, 2019 — Sam H. Fawaz

As the end of the year is fast approaching, we should consider any last-minute strategies that might help reduce your 2019 tax bill. Last year was the first year to be impacted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA). While there was plenty of clarifying guidance on application of the TCJA, there were was no significant new legislation in 2019 affecting individual taxes. But situations do change from year to year, thus requiring a fresh look at how to approach year-end tax planning. The following are strategies that may benefit you and that we should discuss before December 31.

Bunching Deductions into 2019

As you may know, TCJA significantly increased the standard deduction for all taxpayers. This means that many individuals who previously received a tax benefit by itemizing deductions no longer do because taking the standard deduction is more advantageous. For 2019, the standard deduction is $12,200 for single taxpayers, $24,400 for married taxpayers filing a joint return, $18,350 for taxpayers filing as head of household, and $12,200 for married taxpayers filing separately.

In addition, there is a $10,000 limitation ($5,000 in the case of married taxpayers filing separately) on the combined amount of state income taxes and property taxes that may be deducted when itemizing. Unfortunately, this $10,000 limitation applies to single as well as married taxpayers and is not indexed for inflation.

If the total of your itemized deductions in 2019 will be close to your standard deduction amount, alternating between bunching itemized deductions into 2019 and taking the standard deduction in 2020 (or vice versa) could provide a net-tax benefit over the two-year period. For example, if you give a certain amount to charities each year, and if it’s financially feasible, you might consider doubling up this year on your contributions rather than spreading the contributions over a two-year period. If these amounts, along with your mortgage interest and medical expenses exceed your standard deduction, then you should double up on the expenses this year and take the standard deduction next year.

Similar opportunities may be available for bunching property tax payments and state income tax payments, subject to TCJA’s $10,000 limitation on deductions for such payments. This strategy can be especially attractive for single taxpayers because the standard deduction is so much lower for single individuals. It’s important to remember, however, that the deduction for property taxes applies only to property taxes that have been assessed. Thus, if the assessment for 2019 property taxes occurred in 2018 and the taxes are due in 2019, you can deduct in 2019 the taxes assessed for 2019 that you have paid as well as the property taxes assessed for 2020, assuming you also pay the 2020 taxes in 2019.

Finally, if any of your real estate or income taxes can be allocated to a trade or business, they are not subject to the $10,000 limitation.

Medical Expenses and Health Savings Accounts

For 2019, your medical expenses are only deductible as an itemized deduction to the extent they exceed 10 percent of your adjusted gross income. Depending on what your taxable income is expected to be in 2019 and 2020, and whether itemizing deductions would be advantageous for you in either year, you may want to accelerate any optional medical expenses into 2019 or defer them until 2020. The right approach depends on your income for each year, expected medical expenses, as well as your other itemized deductions.

However, health saving accounts (HSAs) present an attractive alternative. If you are eligible to set up such an account, you can deduct the amount you contribute to the account in computing adjusted gross income. Thus, the contributions are deductible whether you itemize deductions or not. Distributions from an HSA are tax free to the extent they are used to pay for qualified medical expenses (i.e., medical, dental, and vision expenses). For 2019, the annual contribution limits are $3,500 for an individual with self-only coverage and $7,000 for an individual with family coverage.

Mortgage Interest Deduction

If you sold your principal residence during the year and acquired a new principal residence, the deduction for any interest on your acquisition indebtedness (i.e., mortgage) could be limited. The TCJA limits the interest deduction on mortgages of more than $750,000 obtained after December 14, 2017. The deduction is limited to the portion of the interest allocable to $750,000 ($375,000 in the case of married taxpayers filing separately). For mortgages acquired before December 15, 2017, the limitation is the same as it was under prior law: $1,000,000 ($500,000 in the case of married taxpayers filing separately). However, as discussed below, if you operate a business from your home, an allocable portion of your mortgage interest is not subject to these limitations.

You can potentially deduct interest paid on home equity indebtedness, but only if you used the debt to buy, build, or substantially improve your home. Thus, for example, interest on a home equity loan used to build an addition to your existing home is typically deductible, while interest on the same loan used to pay personal living expenses, such as credit card debts, is not.

Home Office Expenses

When the TCJA eliminated the miscellaneous itemized expense deduction, it eliminated the ability of employees to deduct home office expenses. However, taxpayers with their own business can still file a Schedule C and take a home office expense deduction if part of the home is used for that business. State income taxes, property taxes, and home mortgage interest allocable to your business can also be deducted and such deductions are not subject to the limitations that apply to individual taxpayers who do not operate a Schedule C business from their home.

Revised Kiddie Tax Rules

One of the changes made by TCJA involves what is known as the “kiddie tax.” The kiddie tax applies to a child’s net unearned income (e.g., dividends, interest, and capital gain distributions) over $2,200. While such income used to be taxed at the parent’s marginal income tax rate and took into consideration the unearned income of any siblings, TCJA simplified the calculation so that the child’s unearned income is taxed at trust and estate tax rates. Although the trust and estate tax rates are similar to the individual tax rates, the tax brackets are much lower, meaning higher rates of tax apply to lower levels of income.

For 2019, the top marginal tax rate for a couple filing a joint return is 37% for taxable income over $612,350. For income subject to the estate and trust tax rates, the 37% tax rate begins at taxable income over $12,750. There is a way to save some taxes here, however, if your child is under the age of 18 at the end of 2019 and didn’t have earned income that was more than half of the child’s support, or a full-time student at least age 19 and under age 24 and the end of 2019 and didn’t have earned income that was more than half of the child’s support. For such children, you can elect to include the child’s income on your tax return. However, we would need to evaluate whether adding such income to your tax return would subject you to the net investment income tax of 3.8 percent.

Child-Related Expenses and Credits

While the TCJA eliminated the personal and dependent exemption deductions that applied to tax years before 2018, it increased the child tax credit available for years after 2017 and increased the income level at which taxpayers are eligible for the credit. For 2019, if you file a joint return and your modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) is $400,000 or less, you are eligible for a $2,000 child tax credit for each qualifying child. If you are filing as single, head of household, or married filing separately, the MAGI limitation for claiming a child tax credit is $200,000 or less. For income above those levels, a pro rata credit may be available depending on total MAGI. Taxpayers with income below certain thresholds may be eligible for a refundable child tax credit.

Additionally, if you paid someone to take care of your child or a dependent so you can work or look for work, you may be entitled to a tax credit for up to 35 percent of the expenses paid. The amount of employment-related expenses used to calculate the credit is generally limited to $3,000 for one qualifying individual or $6,000 for two or more qualifying individuals. Various qualifications must be met in order to be eligible for the credit, but if you incurred such expenses, you may qualify. Additionally, if you paid someone to come to your home and care for a child or dependent, you may be a household employer subject to employment taxes.

If you incurred expenses to adopt a child, you may be eligible for a tax credit of up to $14,080 for some or all of those expenses. The determination of the tax year in which qualified adoption expenses are allowable as a credit depends on whether the expenses were paid before the year in which the adoption became final or whether they were paid during or after the year in which the adoption became final.

Education-Related Deductions and Credits

While the tuition and fees deduction that had previously been available expired at the end of 2017 along with the miscellaneous itemized deduction for work-related education expenses, other education-related tax deductions, credits, and exclusions from income may apply for amounts paid in 2019. Tax-free distributions from a qualified tuition program of up to $10,000 are now allowed for elementary or secondary school tuition. In addition, if your modified adjusted gross income level is below certain thresholds, the following are available for 2019:

· an exclusion from income for education savings bond interest;

· a deduction for student loan interest; and

· a lifetime learning credit of up to $2,000 for tuition and fees paid for the enrollment or attendance of yourself, your spouse, or your dependents for courses of instruction at an eligible educational institution.

Charitable Contribution Deductions

As a result of the increase in the standard deduction, some taxpayers are no longer getting a benefit from itemizing their deductions, such as charitable contributions, as they once were. However, as noted above, you can still help charities and get a tax benefit if you contribute enough to get over the standard deduction amount or bunch itemized deductions that would otherwise be spread over multiple years into one year.

Additionally, you can reap a larger tax benefit by donating appreciated assets, such as stock, to a charity. Generally, the higher the appreciated value of an asset, the bigger the potential value of the tax benefit. Donating appreciated assets not only entitles you to a charitable contribution deduction but you also avoid the capital gains tax that would otherwise be due if you sold the stock. For example, if you own stock with a fair market value of $1,000 that was purchased for $250 and your capital gains tax rate is 15 percent, the capital gains tax would be $113 ($750 gain x 15%). If you donate that stock instead of selling it, and are in the 24 percent tax bracket, you get an ordinary income deduction worth $240 ($1,000 FMV x 24%). You also save $150 in capital gains tax that you would otherwise pay if you sold the stock. Thus, the after-tax cost of the gift of appreciated stock is $647 ($1,000 – $240 – $113) compared to the after tax cost of a donation of $1,000 cash which would be $760 ($1,000 – $240). However, it’s important to also keep in mind that tax deductions for appreciated property are limited to 50 percent of your adjusted gross income.

Finally, taxpayers 70 1/2 years old and older who own an individual retirement account (IRA) are required to take minimum distributions from that account each year and include those amounts in taxable income. If you are in this category, a special rule allows you to make a charitable contribution directly from your IRA to a charity. This has several benefits. First, since charitable contributions deductions are usually only available to individuals who itemize, individuals who take the standard deduction instead can benefit from this rule. Second, making the contribution directly to a charity counts towards your required minimum distribution but that amount is not included in income and thus reduces your taxable income and adjusted gross income (AGI). A lower AGI is advantageous because it increases your ability to take medical expense deductions that you might not otherwise be able to take. For example, medical expenses are only deductible to the extent those expenses exceed 10 percent of your AGI and a lower AGI means you can deduct more medical expenses. In addition, as AGI increases, more of your social security income is subject to tax. Finally, the 3.8 percent net investment income tax applies to the extent your AGI exceeds a certain level.

Rental Real Estate

If you own rental real estate, you may be eligible for a special tax break – TCJA’s Section 199A deduction – which is based on a percentage of income earned by the rental real estate activity. In order to be eligible for the deduction, the activity must be considerable, regular, and continuous in scope. In determining whether your rental real estate activity meets those criteria, relevant factors include, but are not limited to, the following:

· the type of rented property (commercial real property versus residential property);

· the number of properties rented;

· you or your agent’s day-to-day involvement;

· the types and significance of any ancillary services provided under the lease; and

· the terms of the lease (for example, a net lease versus a traditional lease and a short-term lease versus a long-term lease).

Under a safe harbor issued by the IRS, a rental real estate activity will be treated as a business eligible for the special deduction if certain requirements are satisfied, such as:

· separate books and records are maintained to reflect the income and expenses for each rental real estate enterprise;

· for rental real estate enterprises that have been in existence less than four years, 250 or more hours of rental services are performed per year with respect to the rental real estate enterprise (with slightly less stringent requirements for rental real estate enterprises that have been in existence for at least four years);

· contemporaneous records have been maintained, including time reports, logs, or similar documents, regarding the following: (i) hours of all services performed; (ii) description of all services performed; (iii) dates on which such services were performed; and (iv) who performed the services; and

· certain compliance requirements are met.

If you think you may be eligible for this deduction, we should get together to nail down any last steps you may need to take to fall within the safe harbor. Alternatively, even if you don’t meet the safe harbor requirements, you may still be eligible for this deduction.

In addition, if you rent out a vacation home that you also use for personal purposes, we should review the number of days it was used for business versus pleasure to see if there are ways to maximize tax savings with respect to that property.

Retirement Planning

By investing in a qualified retirement plan you’ll not only receive a current tax deduction, thereby reducing current year income tax, but you can sock away money for your retirement years. If your employer has a 401(k) plan and you are under age 50, you can defer up to $19,000 of income into that plan. Catch-up contributions of $6,000 are allowed if you are 50 or over.

If you have a SIMPLE 401(k), the maximum pre-tax contribution for 2019 is $13,000. That amount increases to $16,000 if you are 50 or older.

If certain requirements are met, contributions to an individual retirement account (IRA) may be deductible. If you are under 50, the maximum contribution amount for 2019 is $6,000. If you are 50 or older but less than 70 1/2, the maximum contribution amount is $7,000. Contributions exceeding the maximum amount are subject to a 6 percent excise tax. Even if you are not eligible to deduct contributions, contributing after-tax money to an IRA may be advantageous because it will allow you to later convert that traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. Qualified withdrawals from a Roth IRA, including earnings, are free of tax, while earnings on a traditional IRA are taxable when withdrawn.

If you already have a traditional IRA, we should evaluate whether it is appropriate to convert it to a Roth IRA this year. You’ll have to pay tax on the amount converted as ordinary income, but subsequent earnings will be free of tax and the decrease in tax rates that are effective this year makes such a conversion less costly than it would have been in previous years. Of course, this option only makes sense if the tax rates when the money is withdrawn from the Roth IRA are anticipated to be higher than the tax rates when the traditional IRA is converted. And if you have a traditional 401(k), 403(b), or 457 plan that includes after-tax contributions, you can generally rollover these after-tax amounts to a Roth IRA with no tax consequences. A rollover of a SIMPLE 401(k) into a Roth IRA may also be available. As with all tax rules, there are qualifications that apply to these rollovers that we should discuss before any actions are taken.

Finally, if you make qualified retirement savings contributions during 2019 you can claim a retirement savings credit of up to $1,000 (single or head of household) or $2,000 (joint filers) if your adjusted gross income does not exceed $64,000 (married filing jointly), $48,000 (head of household), or $32,000 (all other taxpayers).

Reevaluating Your Stock Portfolio

Year end is a good time to review your stock portfolio to see if you might want to divest yourself of stocks that have lost value since you originally bought them. We should evaluate whether you might benefit from selling off appreciated stocks, particularly those that would generate a short-term capital gain, and using the resulting gain to limit your exposure to a long-term capital loss on stocks you may want to dump, since the deduction of long-term capital gains is limited. And any net capital gain you may reap will be taxed at the substantially reduced capital gain tax rate.

The tax rate for net capital gain is generally no higher than 15 percent for most taxpayers. Some or all of your net capital gain may be taxed at 0 percent if your income is not above $39,375 (single), $78,750 (joint), or $52,750 (head of household). However, a 20 percent tax rate on net capital gain does apply to the extent that your ordinary taxable income is over $434,550 (single), $488,850 (joint), $244,425 (married filing separately), or $461,700 (head of household). Additionally, the following types of capital gains have different tax rate structures: (1) the taxable part of a gain from selling certain qualified small business stock is taxed at a maximum 28 percent rate; (2) the net capital gain from selling collectibles (such as coins or art) is taxed at a maximum 28 percent rate; and (3) the portion of certain unrecaptured gain from selling real property is taxed at a maximum 25 percent rate. If you have been involved in any such transactions during the year, we should review your options for reducing the tax on those transactions.

Substantial Increases in Deductions or Nontaxable Income Could Result in AMT Exposure

While fewer taxpayers are subject to the alternative minimum tax (AMT) as a result of the TCJA increasing exemption amounts and raising the exemption phaseout levels, the AMT is not completely dead. Certain adjustments to your taxable income, or certain exclusions from gross income, for regular tax purposes are not allowed for AMT purposes and will increase your AMT income (AMTI), thus potentially subjecting you to the AMT. Typical items which may reduce regular income but are not allowed for AMTI purposes include the standard deduction, the state and local income tax deduction, and the deduction for property taxes. In addition, the exercise of incentive stock options can result in AMT income, whereas such income is not recognized for regular tax purposes. Thus, if you have exercised any incentive stock options or have had a substantial increase in certain deductions in 2019, but have not previously been subject to the AMT, there is the possibility that you could be subject to the AMT for 2019.

If you work from home, one strategy for avoiding the AMT is to allocate part of your mortgage interest or property taxes to your Schedule C business. To the extent you can claim items on your Schedule C, they aren’t added back in calculating AMTI.

While all taxpayers are eligible for an exemption from the AMT, the amount of the exemption depends on your filing status. For 2019, the exemption amounts for individuals, other than those subject to the kiddie tax, are (1) $111,700 in the case of a joint return or a surviving spouse; (2) $71,700 in the case of an individual who is unmarried and not a surviving spouse; and (3) $55,850 in the case of a married individual filing a separate return. However, these exemptions are phased out by an amount equal to 25 percent of the amount by which your alternative minimum taxable income (AMTI) exceeds: (1) $1,020,600 in the case of married individuals filing a joint return and surviving spouses and (2) $510,300 in the case of all other individuals.

Planning for the 3.8 Percent Net Investment Income Tax

A 3.8 percent tax applies to certain net investment income of individuals with income above a threshold amount. The threshold amounts are $250,000 (married filing jointly and qualifying widow(er) with dependent child), $200,000 (single and head of household), and $125,000 (married filing separately). In general, investment income includes, but is not limited to: interest, dividends, capital gains, rental and royalty income, non-qualified annuities, and income from businesses involved in trading of financial instruments or commodities. Thus, while the top tax rate for qualified dividend income is generally 20 percent, the top rate on such income increases to 23.8 percent for a taxpayer subject to the net investment income tax (NIIT).

If it appears you may be subject to the NIIT, the following actions may help avoid the tax and we should discuss whether any of these options make sense in light of your financial situation.

· Donate or gift appreciated property. As discussed above, by donating appreciated property to a charity, you can avoid recognizing the appreciation for income tax purposes and for net investment income tax purposes. Or you may gift the property so that the donee can sell it and report the income. In this case, you’ll want to gift the property to individuals that have income below the $200,000 (single) or $250,000 (couples) thresholds.

· Replace stocks with state and local bonds. Interest on tax-exempt state and local bonds are exempt from the NIIT. In addition, because such interest income is not included in adjusted gross income, it can help keep you below the threshold for which the NIIT applies.

· If you are in the real estate business, we should review the criteria for being classified as a real estate professional in addition to the criteria necessary for meeting the safe harbor requirements mentioned above for obtaining the qualified business income deduction. If you meet the requirements for being a real estate professional, your rental income is considered nonpassive and thus escapes the NIIT.

· If you intend to sell any appreciated assets, consider whether the sale can be structured as an installment sale so the gain recognition is spread over several years.

· Since capital losses can offset capital gains for NIIT purposes, consider whether it makes sense to sell any losing stocks, but keeping in mind the transaction costs associated with selling stocks.

· If you have appreciated real property to dispose of and are not considered a real estate professional, a like-kind exchange may be more advantageous. By deferring the gain recognition, you can avoid recognizing income subject to the NIIT.

Because the NIIT does not apply to a trade or business unless (1) the trade or business is a passive activity with respect to the taxpayer, or (2) the trade or business consists of trading financial instruments or commodities, we may want to look at ways in which a venture you are involved with could qualify as a trade or business. However, such classification could have Form 1099 reporting implications whereas personal payments are not reportable if your activity is not considered a trade or business.

Additional Medicare Tax

An additional Medicare tax of 0.9 percent is imposed on wages, compensation, and self-employment income in excess of a threshold amount. The threshold amounts are $250,000 (joint return or surviving spouse), $125,000 (married individual filing a separate return), and $200,000 (all others). However, the threshold amount is reduced (but not below zero) by the amount of the taxpayer’s wages. Thus, a single individual who has $145,000 in self-employment income and $130,000 of wages is subject to the .9 percent additional tax on $75,000 of self-employment income ($145,000 – $70,000 (the $200,000 threshold – $130,000 in wages)). No tax deduction is allowed for the additional Medicare tax.

For married couples, employers do not take a spouse’s self-employment income or wages into account when calculating Medicare tax withholding for an employee. If you and your spouse will exceed the $250,000 threshold in 2019 and have not made enough tax payments to cover the additional .9 percent tax, you can file Form W-4 with the IRS before year end to have an additional amount deducted from your paycheck to cover the additional .9 percent tax. Otherwise, underpayment of tax penalties may apply.

Timing Income and Deductions

If there is going to be a dramatic swing in your taxable income or your life circumstances between 2019 and 2020, it may make sense to either: (1) accelerate income into 2019 and defer deductions into 2020, or (2) accelerate deductions into 2019 and defer income into 2020.

· Accelerating Income into 2019. Options for accelerating income include: (1) harvesting gains from your investment portfolio, keeping in mind the 3.8 percent NIIT; (2) converting a retirement account into a Roth IRA and recognizing the conversion income this year; (3) taking IRA distributions this year rather than next year; (4) if you are self-employed and have clients that owe you money, try to get them to pay before year end; and (5) settling any outstanding lawsuits or insurance claims that will generate income this year.

· Deferring Deductions into 2020. If you anticipate a substantial increase in taxable income next year, it may be advantageous to push deductions into 2020 by: (1) postponing year-end charitable contributions, property tax payments, and medical and dental expense payments, to the extent deductions are available for such payments, until next year; and (2) postponing the sale of any loss-generating property.

· Deferring Income into 2020. If it looks like you may have a significant decrease in income next year, either from a reduction in income or an increase in deductions, it may make sense to defer income into 2020 or later years. Some options for deferring income include: (1) if you are due a year-end bonus, having your employer pay the bonus in January 2020; (2) if you are considering selling assets that will generate a gain, postponing the sale until 2020; (3) if you are considering exercising stock options, delaying the exercise of those options; (4) if you are planning on selling appreciated property, consider an installment sale with larger payments being received in 2020; and (5) consider parking investments in deferred annuities.

· Accelerating Deductions into 2019. If you expect a decrease in income next year, accelerating deductions into the current year can offset the higher income this year. Some options include: (1) prepaying property taxes in December, keeping in mind the $10,000 limitation on deducting state income and property taxes and the fact that the property taxes must have been assessed in order to be deductible; (2) if you owe state income taxes, making up any shortfall in December rather than waiting until your state income tax return is due (and similarly keeping in mind the $10,000 limitation); (3) making your January mortgage payment in December; (4) making any large charitable contributions in 2019, rather than 2020; (5) selling some or all loss stocks; and (6) if you qualify for a health savings account, setting one up and making the maximum contribution allowable.

Foreign Bank Account Reporting

The IRS has become increasingly aggressive at tracking down individuals who have not reported foreign bank accounts. If you have an interest in a foreign bank account, it must be disclosed; failure to do so carries stiff penalties. You must file a Report of Foreign Bank and Financial Accounts (FBAR) if: (1) you are a U.S. resident or a person doing business in the United States; (2) you had one or more financial accounts that exceeded $10,000 during the calendar year; (3) the financial account was in a foreign country; and (4) you had a financial interest in the account or signatory or other authority over the foreign financial account. If you are unclear about the requirements or think they could possibly apply to you, please let me know at your earliest convenience.

Other Considerations

Here are some additional items to consider:

Flexible Spending Accounts: Generally, you will lose any amounts remaining in a health flexible spending account at the end of the year unless your employer allows you to use the account until March 15, 2020, in which case you’ll have until then. You should check with your employer to see if the employer gives employees the optional grace period to March 15.

Life Events. Life events can significantly impact your taxes. For example, if you are using head of household or surviving spouse filing status for 2019, but will change to a filing tax status of single for 2020, your tax rate will go up. Thus, accelerating income into 2019 and pushing deductions into 2020 may also yield tax savings.

Individual Healthcare Penalty. For 2019, the tax penalty on individuals who fail to carry health insurance, which was enacted as part of the Affordable Care Act, has been eliminated.

Moving Expense Reimbursement. If you received a reimbursement from your employer for moving expenses incurred in 2019, the reimbursement is taxable income. While taxpayers could previously deduct employment-relating moving expenses, this deduction is no longer available for moves taking place in years 2018-2025, unless you are a member of the U.S. Armed Forces on active duty and move pursuant to a military order to a permanent change of station.

Casualty and Theft Losses. If you incurred a casualty loss in a presidentially declared disaster area in 2019, it may be deductible. Any other casualty loss, along with all theft losses, are not deductible.

Section 199A Passthrough Tax Break. Enacted as part of TCJA, the Section 199A tax break allows a 20 percent deduction for qualified business income from sole proprietorships, S corporations, partnerships, and LLCs taxed as partnerships. If you qualify for the deduction, which is available to both itemizers and nonitemizers, it is taken on your individual tax returns as a reduction to taxable income. The new tax break is subject to some complicated restrictions and limitations, but the rules that apply to individuals with taxable income at or below $160,700 ($321,400 for joint filers; $160,725 for married individuals filing separately) are simpler and more permissive than the ones that apply above those thresholds.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Posted in estate planning, Financial Planning, General, retirement planning, tax planning, Taxes. Leave a Comment »

Believe it Or Not

January 27, 2019 — Sam H. Fawaz

A longtime favorite line that I like to use when people ask me what the market or economy are going to do in the near future, is to say “Sorry, my crystal ball is in the shop.”  Or I’ll repeat what famed baseball manager Yogi Berra once said: “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

That doesn’t stop others from trying to be a broken clock by predicting early and often. And so we’re into that exciting time of year when all sorts of market predictions are made by people who are mostly claiming that they knew the future and have accurately predicted it over a great track record.  But if you’re smart, you’ll turn off the TV/radio or move on to the next article.

The truth is that none of us can accurately predict the movements of the markets.  If we could, then we would always make trades ahead of market moves, and it wouldn’t take long before that amazing prognosticator with the working crystal ball would have amassed billions off of his or her stock market trades.  Have you read about anybody doing that lately?

Most of these people are employed at think tanks or sell their predictions to credulous investors.  Would they need that paycheck or your hard-earned subscription dollars if they had the ability to make billions just by checking the ‘ole crystal ball a couple of times a day?

A recent article by frequent blogger and wealth manager Barry Ritholtz offers some rather amazing data on people in the prediction business.  You may know that the cryptocurrency known as “bitcoin” is now worth about $3,500—way WAY down from the start of 2018.  So how well did the people in the prediction business foresee that downturn?

Not well.  In his article, Ritholtz noted that Pantera Capital predicted that Bitcoin would be selling for $20,000 by the end of 2018.  Tom Lee of Fundstrat was more bullish, forecasting that bitcoin would breach $25,000 by then.  Prognostications by Anthony Pompliano, of Morgan Creek Digital Partners, were still more bullish, predicting bitcoins would be worth $50,000 by the end of last year.  John Pfeffer, who describes himself online as “an entrepreneur and investor,” anticipated $75,000 bitcoins by now, and Kay Van-Petersen, Global Macro-Strategist at Saxo Bank, one-upped everybody with his prediction that bitcoins would be worth $100,000 by December 31st of last year.

Ritholtz offers other examples, like radio personality Peter Schiff telling listeners since 2010 that the price of gold has been heading toward $5,000 an ounce.  (It’s riding around $1,300 currently.). Jim Rickards, former general counsel at Long-Term Capital Management, is more ambitious, telling his followers that he has a $10,000 price target for an ounce of gold.

If you happen to follow former Reagan White House Budget Director David Stockman, you have been told that stocks are going to crash in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019.  Someday he’s going to be right, and will no doubt be touting his amazing prediction abilities (that broken clock is right twice a day).

When you read about a prediction, instead of reaching for the phone to call your financial advisor, try writing the prediction down on a calendar or reminder program like the app followupthen.com, and come back to it a year later.  Chances are you’ll be less impressed then than you might be now.

The three things that work best for investors: time in the market, portfolio diversification, and risk management. Soothsayers need not apply.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Source:

https://ritholtz.com/2018/12/fun-with-forecasting-2018-edition/

TheMoneyGeek thanks guest writer Bob Veres for his contribution to this post
Posted in estate planning, Financial Planning, General, retirement planning, US Stock Market. Leave a Comment »
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