Update on Extension of Bush Era Tax Cuts

December 7, 2010 — Sam H. Fawaz

I promised to update you on progress in changes to income tax legislation that affects all of us in 2011.  As you may recall, the Bush-era tax cuts were scheduled to expire after 2010, which essentially amounts to a tax increase if Congress didn’t act to extend them.

After the stock market close yesterday, President Obama, in a televised speech, announced a compromise with Republicans in Congress which, if passed into law, would amount to a much bigger fiscal package in 2011 than virtually anyone expected. In addition to a two-year extension of the Bush-era tax cuts, he added a one-year reduction in the payroll tax and a huge investment tax credit.  While the ultimate bill that gets passed may be different than detailed below, I wanted to get you some details right away.

I would expect that the proposal will be signed and turned into law in the next couple of weeks.  Among the highlights of the proposed bill are:

— A two year extension of tax cuts for all income levels.   The 15% rate on capital gains and dividend income would also be extended as part of the deal. The president also proposes a 35% estate tax rate, with a $5 million exemption.  It appears that the President traded tax extensions for the “rich” for unemployment benefit extensions and the below payroll tax deduction.

— Payroll tax deduction. This would reduce the 6.2% Social Security payroll tax applied to employee wages by 2 percentage points.

— Renewal of emergency unemployment benefits through the end of 2011. This would be more than the three-month extension most analysts had expected. It puts around $60 billion in the hands of unemployed citizens, which is much more than the consensus expected.

— ARRA tax cut extensions. Several small tax cuts in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, passed in 2009, will be extended, including an expanded earned income tax credit, and various education-related tax breaks.

— Full expensing of business investments in 2011.  This would allow the expensing of business investment in 2011, similar to the policy that the president proposed in September.  It will allow companies to deduct the entire cost of capital expenditures on their taxes rather than depreciate them.

Congress and the White House will need to work out the details, but I expect this tax bill to pass. It’s not likely that this lame duck Congress would leave for the holidays until this is sent to the President for his signature.  It’s rare that I pity the Internal Revenue Service, but with tax forms to revamp and guidance and rules to formulate, they will be behind the curve on getting this out.  I would expect some delays of 2010 income tax refunds for returns filed early, but none that are terribly lengthy.

The stock markets have been expecting this, and some of it already factored into current levels, but I still expect market reaction to be positive and further bolster any Santa Claus rally we may have coming.  This is essentially another huge fiscal stimulus plan, perhaps larger than any of us have been expecting or realize.

I’ve been saying all along that Congress will “hem and haw”, posture for their constituents, and pretend to be against tax cuts and for fiscal responsibility.  But ultimately the economy is too fragile to be saddled with a tax increase this year or next. Even I am a bit surprised by the depth and breadth of the bill, but I could not see Congress not doing something before year-end. Failing to pass something would have amounted to a quantitative easing neutralizer (i.e., rendering quantitative easing worthless).

I will keep my eyes and ears peeled open for more details about this bill and its ultimate passage and will let you know what ultimately gets passed. If you, a family member, friend or colleague would like more information about this or just need to talk about a financial situation, please feel free to forward a link to this post to them and suggest they get in touch with me (http://www.ydfs.com).  I will be sure to take good care of them.  As always, I’m available for any questions you may have and welcome your comments.

Have a great holiday season and look for my year-end and 2011 Economic and Market Outlook letter later this month.

Posted in General, investing, Taxes. Tags: , , , , . 1 Comment »

Happy Thanksgiving and a Quick Market Update

November 26, 2010 — Sam H. Fawaz

I just wanted to post a quick note to wish you and yours a very Happy Thanksgiving Holiday.  Here’s hoping that you are celebrating it in good health surrounded by family and friends.  Without both, life would be such a drag.

I am thankful for my family and friends, good health and the best clients and readers in the world.  I can’t imagine myself doing anything else that I would enjoy more in life than what I’m doing now.  I hope that you feel the same way about what you do, and if not, I hope you’ll take steps in your life to move closer to the activities that bring you joy and happiness.  It’s really about getting what you need and want out of the day rather than getting through the day.

A Quick Stock Market Update

The last few weeks have been quite volatile in the stock markets, and to be honest with you, it was really all my fault.  Right after I sent out my last newsletter update about the Federal Reserve pumping up the markets, we entered into a long overdue correction (a decline in prices).  As I had mentioned, the markets had gone straight up during September, October and early November, so it was no surprise that a correction was coming. We have swung up and down and sideways without much upside and thankfully without much downside either.

In some cases, I took advantage of this correction to “prune” (sell) certain client positions to lock in profits or avoid losses.  This past Tuesday, a day when everything was trending downward and things looked like they were about to fall apart (a day where about 90% of all asset classes were down) due to the events in Europe and South Korea, I took 95% of our available cash and invested it at the lows of the recent market range.  We were immediately rewarded yesterday as all the markets were up “big” to kick off what I hope to be a great year-end Santa Claus rally.  Seasonally, this period of the year tends to be the strongest for gains in the markets.  While we are technically still in a correction phase, I expect the uptrend to resume soon (but my crystal ball is still in the shop).  Recent economic news has been very positive, some much better than expected, and first time unemployment claims this week surprised nicely to the downside.

I still remain optimistic about a positive finish to the year and the rally continuing into 2011 as the economy recovers.  I believe that this is the best time to be invested in the markets as Uncle Sam has told us that he wants the markets higher. Consider taking advantage of this recent market correction to dip your toes into the market.  I like that most are pessimistic about the markets since that tends to propel them higher.  Yes, we have economic worries, future inflation, high unemployment and a moribund housing market, but those problems didn’t develop overnight, so they won’t be solved overnight either.  We are making progress, and that’s what really counts.

Later in December, I will send out my 2011 market and economic outlook newsletter.  In the meantime, year-end tax planning is in full swing and hopefully you’ve benefitted from my year-end tax planning newsletter and tips.  Remember, if you’re thinking about an IRA to Roth conversion in 2010, you only have about five weeks to complete it.  Don’t hesitate to contact us to discuss whether this option is appropriate for you. I am also available to help with your year-end financial or tax planning.

Enjoy your holiday weekend and please let me know if I can be of any help.  And remember: 50%+ off sales are great, but the best sales are those that save you more than 100% (that is, when you save and invest the money instead..sorry I couldn’t resist).  By the way, I was recently quoted in another online financial story-see the link below about Six Ways to Gift Money to Family.

New: 6 Ways To Gift Money to Family http://bit.ly/aDG90W

Sam H. Fawaz CFP®, CPA is president of YDream Financial Services, Inc., a registered investment advisor. Sam is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP®), Certified Public Accountant and registered member of the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors (NAPFA) fee-only financial planner group.  Sam has expertise in many areas of personal finance and wealth management and has always been fascinated with the role of money in society.  Helping others prosper and succeed has been Sam’s mission since he decided to dedicate his life to financial planning.  He specializes in entrepreneurs, professionals, company executives and their families.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable, but we cannot attest to its accuracy.  Investment recommendations may change and readers are urged to check with their investment advisors before making any investment decisions.  Opinions expressed in this writing by Sam H. Fawaz are his own, may change without prior notice and should not be relied upon as a basis for making investment or planning decisions.  No person can accurately forecast or call a market top or bottom, so forward looking statements should be discounted and not relied upon as a basis for investing or trading decisions. This message was authored by Sam H. Fawaz CPA, CFP and is provided by YDream Financial Services, Inc.

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What’s Going On With The Markets?

June 29, 2010 — Sam H. Fawaz

Well that was quick!

I’m referring of course to the short uptrend from the stock market correction that had seen a bottom on June 8. As of today, the S&P 500 index undercut the lows of the last correction and has put us back into another market correction. With all the overhang from worldwide events and mounting evidence of a slowing recovery, investor, consumer and institutional sentiment are at their lows.

In last week’s statement from the Federal Reserve, where it continued to hold interest rates at 0-0.25% for an extended period, the “Fed” acknowledged a softening recovery and lackluster employment growth. Hints of another fiscal stimulus or monetary easing emanated from Washington to help avoid a possible double-dip recession. Now you may have heard about the G-20 Summit meeting this past weekend in Toronto where the United States was the lone voice in encouraging a coordinated effort of more fiscal stimulus to heed off a global recession; instead, most European nations were insistent that austerity measures and tax increases were the way to go to bring their fiscal houses in order. While I’m totally in favor of balanced budgets and fiscal conservatism, simultaneously cutting spending and raising taxes are the surest way to plunge your country into recession or worse, depression (history has demonstrated this time and time again.) At a time when the recovery is so fragile, doing one of the two is risky; doing both is simply economic suicide.

The Conference Board reported a sharp drop in Consumer Confidence today which caught Wall Street completely off guard. However, today’s figures are in sharp contrast to last Friday when the University of Michigan reported its Consumer Sentiment gauge at the highest level in two years. Although the 9.8 point drop in the Conference Board numbers was higher than expected, keep in mind that Consumer Confidence fell over 10 points in February just before the last stock market rally. These numbers really don’t mean a whole lot to the markets, so I’d caution against reading too much into today’s report or market reaction.

As I’ve written before, the stock markets hate uncertainty. With the BP Gulf disaster getting worse, the European Union is still arguing who should pay for whom and how much, financial regulation passage still uncertain, new job creation largely absent, and slowing growth in China, we have the makings of a “bad news salad.” Even though yields on money markets and Treasuries are at their lows, it seems that there is no appetite for risk or conviction in the markets by both the bulls and the bears. With poor May retail sales, jobs, and housing numbers, the bulls haven’t had much to hang their hat on lately. But keep in mind that one month does not make a trend.

So we find ourselves once again at a critical level in the markets today. At a closing level of 1,041 in the S&P 500, the bulls must come in and rescue this uptrend or risk dropping another 6% from here to about 980. I must admit that I believe that our only short-term hope of averting this drop is a very favorable June jobs number on Friday (on the order of 100,000 new jobs created.) Tomorrow (Wednesday), ADP will release their preliminary estimate of the jobs number (of mostly private employment; it does not include government jobs) and it is widely expected to show 60,000 new jobs created. The ADP report is widely anticipated as an indicator of the main jobs report, but it has been known to be way off. However, many institutions and traders treat it as a preview of Friday’s number. Let’s hope that the Labor Department has a nice 4th of July weekend send-off for us.

So much bad news, negative sentiment and consecutive down days are built into the market that a bounce is overdue and may come tomorrow (Wednesday) if the ADP jobs report is favorable. For our portfolios, I will be closely watching the 1,041 level on the S&P 500 index for support. If that support line is definitively broken, I will look to reinstate the portfolio hedges that have served us well in the past. Even at these market levels, we are still considered to be in a correction, not another bear market. By technical definition, a bear market is a 20% decline from a market high, which was 1,220 in the S&P 500 index. That gives us running room to 976 to avoid descending into another bear market.

I personally believe that with an undoubtedly positive 2nd quarter earnings season coming up and a good jobs report, we can avert the drop to bear market levels. I am not in the camp that believes that a double-dip recession or depression is in our near-term future. Short-term, a negative jobs report and poor earnings guidance combined with severe austerity measures around Europe will likely mean bad news for stocks. My broken crystal ball predicts however that we will pull out of this malaise and that the recovery, albeit tepid, will carry the markets upward through the rest of the year. However, if the markets insist on going lower into bear market territory, I will look to liquidate a portion of equity portfolios and increase our hedges. Recall that earlier in the spring I mentioned that the summer months would be both volatile and bumpy…and here we are.

I am working on my 2nd half 2010 market and economic outlook and will send it out to everyone later this week. I wish I had better news for you right now. Nonetheless, I hope this update helps you understand a little more of what’s going on with the markets. Please feel free to forward this message to anyone who might benefit from reading it. If you have any questions or comments, please don’t hesitate to contact me. If you or someone in your family or circle of friends is considering hiring a financial planner, please visit our website or consider a complimentary financial roadmap via the link below. Your first consultation with us is complimentary and there is no pressure to make any decisions.

Sam H. Fawaz CFP®, CPA is president of YDream Financial Services, Inc., a registered investment advisor. Sam is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP®), Certified Public Accountant and registered member of the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors (NAPFA) fee-only financial planner group.  Sam has expertise in many areas of personal finance and wealth management and has always been fascinated with the role of money in society.  Helping others prosper and succeed has been Sam’s mission since he decided to dedicate his life to financial planning.  He specializes in entrepreneurs, professionals, company executives and their families.
All material presented herein is believed to be reliable, but we cannot attest to its accuracy.  Investment recommendations may change and readers are urged to check with their investment advisors before making any investment decisions.  Opinions expressed in this writing by Sam H. Fawaz are his own, may change without prior notice and should not be relied upon as a basis for making investment or planning decisions.  No person can accurately forecast or call a market top or bottom, so forward looking statements should be discounted and not relied upon as a basis for investing or trading decisions. This message was authored by Sam H. Fawaz CPA, CFP and is provided by YDream Financial Services, Inc.
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Feel Like Un-Retiring? Here’s How to Prepare

June 8, 2010 — Sam H. Fawaz

Last October, the MetLife Mature Market Institute released a study that said the over-55 workforce will account for almost 93 percent of the net increase in the U.S. civilian labor force between 2006 and 2016.  At the same time, MetLife reported that many American workers plan to stay on the job at least until age 69.

The Pew Research Center’s Social & Demographic Trends Project echoed those findings in May 2009, saying that just over half of all working adults aged 50-65 plan to delay their retirement, with 16 percent saying they never plan to stop working.   The issue, says the Pew study, is not about what these Americans earn, but how much they lost during the investment meltdown and the worst economic downturn in more than 70 years.

Add all these factors together and you have one of the most interesting labor situations for older Americans ever.  That’s why that for every retiree or potential retiree who feels they need to return or stay on the job, it’s particularly important to review investment, insurance and tax issues.  It therefore makes sense to meet to discuss these areas with a financial advisor such as a fee-only Certified Financial Planner™ professional.

Here are some critical points to address:

How are your skills? This is a valid point for current and potential retirees. The best job candidates are those with current skills in technology and procedures specific to an industry, so staying in the workforce may mean retraining.  If there’s a way to get an employer to pay, then you should take advantage of it.  But if you have to pay for your own education, then you really need to weigh whether your earnings will justify it unless you enjoy the area of education or going back to school.

Be realistic about your demographic in the workplace: While age discrimination is illegal, there are some workplace cultures where older workers frankly seem out of place.  You have to ask whether you are going to be happy staying in a field that’s populated by younger workers with different interests or whether you might try another line of work.

Consider how a return to the workplace will affect you personally and socially: If you’re 40, 50 or 60, working right now probably feels like breathing – when have you not worked?  But it may not be the best option after a year or two out of the workplace.

Consider health insurance issues: If a retiree returning to the workforce is already receiving Medicare or is covered by a “Medigap” policy, they may be able to lower their costs or improve their coverage by accepting group coverage as primary underwriter of their medical expenses.  Since people over age 55 are generally the greatest users of the health care system, coverage issues are particularly important to run by a financial planner.

Know your tax picture: Tax issues shouldn’t determine your ambitions and goals, but it’s important to consider the impact full or part-time income will have on your finances.  Most retirees realize that it doesn’t take much income to knock them into a higher bracket.  Look for ways to control the taxes you’ll ultimately pay, including continued participation in qualified plans, IRAs, and other tax-favored accumulation vehicles and using annuity income to fill the gap between the beginning of the “post-retirement” period and the age when full Social Security benefits can be drawn without an offset for employment income.  Additional work income may affect the amount of taxable social security income you’re receiving, so be sure to take that into account.

Consider what earnings will do to all your retirement payments: If you are planning to continue working or returning to work, consider not only the tax impact, but also how that might change the way you plan to draw on your retirement savings and investments as well as Social Security.  If you are planning to work, it’s important you consider suspending or delaying receipt of those benefits for as long as you can.

Look for work-related incentives: Particularly for public sector workers, there are opportunities to return to state employment and actually augment existing pensions.  Keep an eye out for these programs and see if they work for you.

Keep saving: If you return to the workplace, see what you can do to take advantage of your new employer’s 401(k) plan or any other tax-advantaged retirement savings benefit, particularly if an employer matches your contribution.  Don’t miss a chance to enhance your retirement savings.

Returning to the workforce after retiring can be immensely rewarding both professionally and personally.  If you’ve un-retired yourself, please feel free to post your comments or additional insights about your experience.

This article was produced by the Financial Planning Association (FPA), the membership organization for the financial planning community, and is provided by Sam H. Fawaz and YDream Financial Services, a local member of FPA and a fee-only member of the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors.
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Beware of Gotchas in Growth & Guaranteed Annuities

June 7, 2010 — Sam H. Fawaz

I’ve had several prospects ask about growth and guaranteed annuities being promoted by many in the brokerage and insurance industry.  If there’s one thing you can count on in the financial industry, it’s that the industry will always come up with products that capitalize on fear amongst investors or the frenzy in a particular market segment.  Today, many investors and pre-retirees are discouraged by increased market volatility and low or negative rates of return of late.  The financial and insurance companies respond with products to try and address these concerns and they certainly do sound attractive.

I’ve analyzed and read more annuity prospectuses in my career than I care to admit, and I have yet to find one that delivers on its promise without numerous “gotchas.”  As with any financial product, there is never a free lunch. From hidden and high fees, low guaranteed returns, vague and complicated guarantees and draconian penalty and surrender provisions, the majority of annuities, variable and otherwise, simply don’t make much financial sense.  Annuity and life insurance salesmen, brokers and “financial advisors” always tout the great benefits their products have, but rarely delve into the details of the contract or the downsides.

Remember, when you sign up for any insurance or annuity product that has a penalty or surrender charge, after the right of rescission period has passed (usually three days after signing), the penalty or surrender charge you sign up for is 100% payable whether you keep the product for the requisite term (via higher expenses over 7-17 years) or pay it outright and get out of the contract early.  So waiting until the penalty or surrender period ends does not save you from paying the penalty or surrender charges.  In fact, you’ll lose more by waiting since most contracts have sub-par investment choices with higher annual expenses.

If you’re considering an annuity, keep the following points in mind:

  1. Ask yourself what you intend to use the annuity payout for and when you think you’ll need it.  It is rare that you can’t find an investment that more effectively meets your needs. If you want secure or risk-free retirement income, look at the annuity distribution options and income stream.  In most cases, you would be better off putting your money in bank certificates of deposit and simply liquidate principal as needed.  This way, your heirs get the remaining principal at death rather than the insurance company.
  2. Many people are swayed by the guaranteed current rates on deferred annuities until they realize that the guaranteed rate changes annually, is usually lower than market rates and that the annuity has a 7-17 year unavoidable surrender charge or penalties.
  3. If the guarantee is really important to you, keep in mind that the guarantor is an insurance company much like AIG. How thoroughly have you researched the financial health of the underwriter?
  4. If you are intent on buying an annuity, focus on a fixed and immediate annuity.  Find the best one with the lowest internal expenses, shortest surrender term, and best guarantees.  A fee-only planner can help you choose the best one that has no commissions or hidden compensation to sway his recommendation.
  5. Focus on how relevant the annuity is to your financial goals and whether it is the best solution to the issue you are trying to address.  This helps you move the focus from the product and toward a focus on your personal financial goals, which is what it’s all about.
  6. Remember that an annuity is not an all or nothing decision. You can commit just a portion (10-50%) of your portfolio to an annuity to hedge and diversify your holdings.

I hope this update helps you understand a little more of what goes on with growth and guaranteed income annuities.   My thanks to fellow NAPFA member Bedda D’Angelo for her tips on keeping annuities in perspective.  If you have any questions or comments, please don’t hesitate to post them here.  If you or someone in your family or circle of friends is considering hiring a financial planner, please visit our website or consider a complimentary financial roadmap.

Posted in Consumer Alert, investing, retirement. Tags: , , , , . Leave a Comment »

Portfolio Makeover: Can I Retire Early?

January 17, 2010 — Sam H. Fawaz

Money Magazine recently approached me to perform an investment portfolio makeover for a couple in the Metro Detroit area, Kevin and Janice Ford.  The article, written by Money Magazine Senior Writer Donna Rosato, was published in the January-February 2010 double-issue.  The Roasato’s met with me recently and we put together a financial plan and asset allocation.  Here’s an intro to the article and a link to the full one:

(Money Magazine) — Kevin Ford has worked as an engineer in the Detroit auto industry for more than three decades – currently for the car company that best suits his name. His wife, Janice, is also a veteran of the field, a fellow engineer who even ran her own dealership for a few years before leaving the industry in 2005 to do part-time business development consulting.

Kevin hoped to follow her into retirement at age 55, and two years ago that seemed doable. The family had nearly $1 million saved, plus a hefty pension; they had no debt besides a $300,000 mortgage; their son, Darrell, was out of college and daughter, Kimberly, would be done in 2011.

To continue reading, please click here http://bit.ly/5aGwIO.

Posted in General, investing, markets, retirement, Taxes. Tags: , , , , . 3 Comments »
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