2013 Year-End Tax Planning Tips

As we approach year-end, it’s again time to focus on last-minute moves you can make to save taxes—both on your 2013 return and in future years.

For most individuals, the ordinary federal income tax rates for 2013 will be the same as last year: 10%, 15%, 25%, 28%, 33%, and 35%. However, the fiscal cliff legislation, passed early this year, increased the maximum rate for higher-income individuals to 39.6% (up from 35%). This change affects taxpayers with taxable income above $400,000 for singles, $450,000 for married joint-filing couples, and $425,000 for heads of households. In addition, the new 0.9% Medicare tax and 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT) potentially kick in when modified adjusted gross income (or earned income in the case of the Medicare tax) goes over $200,000 for unmarried, $250,000 for married joint-filing couples, which can result in a higher-than-advertised federal tax rate for 2013.

Despite these tax increases, the current federal income tax environment remains relatively favorable by historical standards. This article presents several tax-saving ideas to get you started. As always, you can call on us to help you sort through the options and implement strategies that make sense for you.

Ideas for Maximizing Non-business Deductions

One way to reduce your 2013 tax liability is to look for additional deductions. Here’s a list of suggestions to get you started:

Make Charitable Gifts of Appreciated Stock. If you have appreciated stock that you’ve held more than a year and you plan to make significant charitable contributions before year-end, keep your cash and donate the stock (or mutual fund shares) instead. You’ll avoid paying tax on the appreciation, but will still be able to deduct the donated property’s full value. If you want to maintain a position in the donated securities, you can immediately buy back a like number of shares. (This idea works especially well with no load mutual or exchange traded funds because there are no transaction fees involved.)

However, if the stock is now worth less than when you acquired it, sell the stock, take the loss, and then give the cash to the charity. If you give the stock to the charity, your charitable deduction will equal the stock’s current depressed value and no capital loss will be available. Also, if you sell the stock at a loss, you can’t immediately buy it back as this will trigger the wash sale rules. This means your loss won’t be deductible, but instead will be added to the basis in the new shares. You must wait more than 30 days to buy back shares sold at a loss to avoid the wash sale rules.

Don’t Lose a Charitable Deduction for Lack of Paperwork. Charitable contributions are only deductible if you have proper documentation. For cash contributions of less than $250, this means you must have either a bank record that supports the donation (such as a cancelled check or credit card receipt) or a written statement from the charity that meets tax-law requirements. For cash donations of $250 or more, a bank record is not enough. You must obtain, by the time your tax return is filed, a charity-provided statement that shows the amount of the donation and lists any significant goods or services received in return for the donation (other than intangible religious benefits) or specifically states that you received no goods or services from the charity.

Maximize the Benefit of the Standard Deduction. For 2013, the standard deduction is $12,200 for married taxpayers filing joint returns. For single taxpayers, the amount is $6,100. Currently, it looks like these amounts will be about the same for 2014. If your total itemized deductions are normally close to these amounts, you may be able to leverage the benefit of your deductions by bunching deductions in every other year. This allows you to time your itemized deductions so that they are high in one year and low in the next. You claim actual expenses in the year they are bunched and take the standard deduction in the intervening years.

For instance, you might consider moving charitable donations you normally would make in early 2014 to the end of 2013. If you’re temporarily short on cash, charge the contribution to a credit card—it is deductible in the year charged, not when payment is made on the card. You can also accelerate payments of your real estate taxes or state income taxes otherwise due in early 2014. But, watch out for the AMT, as these taxes are not deductible for AMT purposes.

Manage Your Adjusted Gross Income (AGI). Many tax breaks are only available to taxpayers with AGI below certain levels. Some common AGI-based tax breaks include the child tax credit (phase-out begins at $110,000 for married couples and $75,000 for heads-of-households), the $25,000 rental real estate passive loss allowance (phase-out range of $100,000–$150,000 for most taxpayers), and the exclusion of social security benefits ($32,000 threshold for married filers; $25,000 for other filers). In addition, for 2013 taxpayers with AGI over $300,000 for married filers, $250,000 for singles, and $275,000 for heads-of-households begin losing part of their personal exemptions and itemized deductions. Accordingly, strategies that lower your income or increase certain deductions might not only reduce your taxable income, but also help increase some of your other tax deductions and credits.

Making the Most of Year-end Securities Transactions

For most individuals, the 2013 federal tax rates on long-term capital gains from sales of investments held over a year are the same as last year: either 0% or 15%. However, the maximum rate for higher-income individuals is now 20% (up from 15% last year). This change affects taxpayers with taxable income above $400,000 for singles, $450,000 for married joint-filing couples, $425,000 for heads-of-households, and $225,000 for married individuals who file separate returns. Higher-income individuals can also get hit by the new 3.8% NIIT on net investment income, which can result in a maximum 23.8% federal income tax rate on 2013 long-term gains.

As you evaluate investments held in your taxable brokerage firm accounts, consider the tax impact of selling appreciated securities (currently worth more than you paid for them). For most taxpayers, the federal tax rate on long-term capital gains is still much lower than the rate on short-term gains. Therefore, it often makes sense to hold appreciated securities for at least a year and a day before selling to qualify for the lower long-term gain tax rate.

But be smart about this and don’t let the tax “tail” wag the investment “dog”; you don’t want hold the investment long term just to gain tax benefits at the cost of a possible loss of the accumulated gain.

Biting the bullet and selling some loser securities (currently worth less than you paid for them) before year-end can also be a tax-smart idea. The resulting capital losses will offset capital gains from other sales this year, including high-taxed short-term gains from securities owned for one year or less. For 2013, the maximum rate on short-term gains is 39.6%, and the 3.8% NIIT may apply too, which can result in an effective rate of up to 43.4%. However, you don’t need to worry about paying a high rate on short-term gains that can be sheltered with capital losses (you will pay 0% on gains that can be sheltered).

If capital losses for this year exceed capital gains, you will have a net capital loss for 2013. You can use that net capital loss to shelter up to $3,000 of this year’s high-taxed ordinary income ($1,500 if you’re married and file separately). Any excess net capital loss is carried forward to next year.

Selling enough loser securities to create a bigger net capital loss that exceeds what you can use this year might also make sense. You can carry forward the excess capital loss to 2014 and beyond and use it to shelter both short-term gains and long-term gains recognized in those years.

Identify the Securities You Sell. When selling stock or mutual fund shares, the general rule is that the shares you acquired first are the ones you sell first. However, if you choose, you can specifically identify the shares you’re selling when you sell less than your entire holding of a stock or mutual fund. By notifying your broker of the shares you want sold at the time of the sale, your gain or loss from the sale is based on the identified shares. This sales strategy gives you better control over the amount of your gain or loss and whether it’s long-term or short-term.

Secure a Deduction for Nearly Worthless Securities. If you own any securities that are all but worthless with little hope of recovery, you might consider selling them before the end of the year so you can capitalize on the loss this year. You can deduct a loss on worthless securities only if you can prove the investment is completely worthless. Thus, a deduction is not available, as long as you own the security and it has any value at all. Total worthlessness can be very difficult to establish with any certainty. To avoid the issue, it may be easier just to sell the security if it has any marketable value. As long as the sale is not to a family member, this allows you to claim a loss for the difference between your tax basis and the proceeds (subject to the normal rules for capital losses and the wash sale rules restricting the recognition of loss if the security is repurchased within 30 days before or after the sale).

Ideas for Seniors Age 701/2 Plus

Make Charitable Donations from Your IRA. IRA owners and beneficiaries who have reached age 701/2 are permitted to make cash donations totaling up to $100,000 to IRS-approved public charities directly out of their IRAs. These so-called Qualified Charitable Distributions, or QCDs, are federal-income-tax-free to you, but you get no itemized charitable write-off on your Form 1040. That’s okay because the tax-free treatment of QCDs equates to an immediate 100% federal income tax deduction without having to worry about restrictions that can delay itemized charitable write-offs. QCDs have other tax advantages, too. Contact us if you want to hear about them.

Be careful—to qualify for this special tax break, the funds must be transferred directly from your IRA to the charity. Also, this favorable provision will expire at the end of this year unless Congress extends it. So, this could be your last chance.

Take Your Required Retirement Distributions. The tax laws generally require individuals with retirement accounts to take withdrawals based on the size of their account and their age every year after they reach age 701/2. Failure to take a required withdrawal can result in a penalty of 50% of the amount not withdrawn. There’s good news for 2013 though—QCDs discussed above count as payouts for purposes of the required distribution rules. This means, you can donate all or part of your 2013 required distribution amount (up to the $100,000 limit on QCDs) and convert taxable required distributions into tax-free QCDs.

Also, if you turned age 701/2 in 2013, you can delay your 2013 required distribution to 2014, if you choose. However, waiting until 2014 will result in two distributions in 2014—the amount required for 2013 plus the amount required for 2014. While deferring income is normally a sound tax strategy, here it results in bunching income into 2014. Thus, think twice before delaying your 2013 distribution to 2014—bunching income into 2014 might throw you into a higher tax bracket or have a detrimental impact on your other tax deductions in 2014.

Ideas for the Office

Maximize Contributions to 401(k) Plans. If you have a 401(k) plan at work, it’s just about time to tell your company how much you want to set aside on a tax-free basis for next year. Contribute as much as you can stand, especially if your employer makes matching contributions. You give up “free money” when you fail to participate to the max for the match.

Take Advantage of Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs). If your company has a healthcare and/or dependent care FSA, before year-end you must specify how much of your 2014 salary to convert into tax-free contributions to the plan. You can then take tax-free withdrawals next year to reimburse yourself for out-of-pocket medical and dental expenses and qualifying dependent care costs. Watch out, though, FSAs are “use-it-or-lose-it” accounts—you don’t want to set aside more than what you’ll likely have in qualifying expenses for the year.

Married couples who both have access to FSAs will also need to decide whose FSA to use. If one spouse’s salary is likely to be higher than what’s known as the FICA wage limit (which is $113,700 for this year and will likely be somewhat higher next year) and the other spouse’s will be less, the one with the smaller salary should fund as much of the couple’s FSA needs as possible. The reason is that the 6.2% social security tax levy for 2014 is set to stop at the FICA wage limit (and doesn’t apply at all to money put into an FSA). Thus, for example, if one spouse earns $120,000 and the other $40,000 and they want to collectively set aside $5,000 in their FSAs, they can save $310 (6.2% of $5,000) by having the full amount taken from the lower-paid spouse’s salary versus having 100% taken from the other one’s wages. Of course, either way, the couple will also save approximately $1,400 in income and Medicare taxes because of the FSAs.

If you currently have a healthcare FSA, make sure you drain it by incurring eligible expenses before the deadline for this year. Otherwise, you’ll lose the remaining balance. It’s not that hard to drum some things up: new glasses or contacts, dental work you’ve been putting off, or prescriptions that can be filled early.

Adjust Your Federal Income Tax Withholding. As stated at the beginning of this article, higher-income individuals will likely see their taxes go up this year. This makes it more important than ever to do the calculations to see where you stand before the end of the year. If it looks like you are going to owe income taxes for 2013, consider bumping up the federal income taxes withheld from your paychecks now through the end of the year. When you file your return, you will still have to pay any taxes due less the amount paid in. However, as long as your total tax payments (estimated payments plus withholdings) equal at least 90% of your 2013 liability or, if smaller, 100% of your 2012 liability (110% if your 2012 adjusted gross income exceeded $150,000; $75,000 for married individuals who filed separate returns), penalties will be minimized, if not eliminated.

Watch Out for the Alternative Minimum Tax

Recent legislation slightly reduced the odds that you’ll owe the alternative minimum tax (AMT). Even so, it’s still critical to evaluate all tax planning strategies in light of the AMT rules before actually making any moves. Because the AMT rules are complicated, you may want our assistance.

Don’t Overlook Estate Planning

For 2013, the unified federal gift and estate tax exemption is a historically generous $5.25 million, and the federal estate tax rate is a historically reasonable 40%. Even if you already have an estate plan, it may need updating to reflect the current estate and gift tax rules. Also, you may need to make some changes for reasons that have nothing to do with taxes.

Ideas for Your Business

Take Advantage of Tax Breaks for Purchasing Equipment, Software, and Certain Real Property. If you have plans to buy a business computer, office furniture, equipment, vehicle, or other tangible business property or to make certain improvements to real property, you might consider doing so before year-end to capitalize on the following generous, but temporary tax breaks:

  • Bigger Section 179 Deduction. Your business may be able to take advantage of the temporarily increased Section 179 deduction. Under the Section 179 deduction privilege, an eligible business can often claim first-year depreciation write-offs for the entire cost of new and used equipment and software additions. (However, limits apply to the amount that can be deducted for most vehicles.) For tax years beginning in 2013, the maximum Section 179 deduction is $500,000. For tax years beginning in 2014, however, the maximum deduction is scheduled to drop to $25,000.
  • Section 179 Deduction for Real Estate. Real property costs are generally ineligible for the Section 179 deduction privilege. However, an exception applies to tax years beginning in 2013. Under the exception, your business can immediately deduct up to $250,000 of qualified costs for restaurant buildings and improvements to interiors of retail and leased nonresidential buildings. The $250,000 Section 179 allowance for these real estate expenditures is part of the overall $500,000 allowance. This temporary real estate break will not be available for tax years beginning after 2013 unless Congress extends it.

Note: Watch out if your business is already expected to have a tax loss for the year (or be close) before considering any Section 179 deduction, as you cannot claim a Section 179 write-off that would create or increase an overall business tax loss. Please contact us if you think this might be an issue for your operation.

  • 50% First-year Bonus Depreciation. Above and beyond the bumped-up Section 179 deduction, your business can also claim first-year bonus depreciation equal to 50% of the cost of most new (not used) equipment and software placed in service by December 31 of this year. For a new passenger auto or light truck that’s used for business and is subject to the luxury auto depreciation limitations, the 50% bonus depreciation break increases the maximum first-year depreciation deduction by $8,000 for vehicles placed in service this year. The 50% bonus depreciation break will expire at year-end unless Congress extends it.

Note:First-year bonus depreciation deductions can create or increase a Net Operating Loss (NOL) for your business’s 2013 tax year. You can then carry back a 2013 NOL to 2011 and 2012 and collect a refund of taxes paid in those years. Please contact us for details on the interaction between asset additions and NOLs.

Evaluate Inventory for Damaged or Obsolete Items. Inventory is normally valued for tax purposes at cost or the lower of cost or market value. Regardless of which of these methods is used, the end-of-the-year inventory should be reviewed to detect obsolete or damaged items. The carrying cost of any such items may be written down to their probable selling price (net of selling expenses). [This rule does not apply to businesses that use the Last in, First out (LIFO) method because LIFO does not distinguish between goods that have been written down and those that have not].

To claim a deduction for a write-down of obsolete inventory, you are not required to scrap the item. However, in a period ending not later than 30 days after the inventory date, the item must be actually offered for sale at the price to which the inventory is reduced.

Employ Your Child. If you are self-employed, don’t miss one last opportunity to employ your child before the end of the year. Doing so has tax benefits in that it shifts income (which is not subject to the Kiddie tax) from you to your child, who normally is in a lower tax bracket or may avoid tax entirely due to the standard deduction. There can also be payroll tax savings since wages paid by sole proprietors to their children age 17 and younger are exempt from both social security and unemployment taxes. Employing your children has the added benefit of providing them with earned income, which enables them to contribute to an IRA. Children with IRAs, particularly Roth IRAs, have a great start on retirement savings since the compounded growth of the funds can be significant.

Remember a couple of things when employing your child. First, the wages paid must be reasonable given the child’s age and work skills. Second, if the child is in college, or is entering soon, having too much earned income can have a detrimental impact on the student’s need-based financial aid eligibility.

Conclusion

Through careful planning, it’s possible your 2013 tax liability can still be significantly reduced, but don’t delay. The longer you wait, the less likely it is that you’ll be able to achieve a meaningful reduction. The ideas discussed in this article are a good way to get you started with year-end planning, but they’re no substitute for personalized professional assistance. Please don’t hesitate to contact us with questions or for additional strategies on reducing your tax bill. We’d be glad to set up a planning meeting or assist you in any other way that we can. You can find us at http://ydfs.com

Possible Consequences of the Government Shutdown & Default

It’s possible that you’ve heard a news report or two about the government shutdown  that started October 1, and now a dispute over raising the U.S. debt ceiling and possibly defaulting on the government’s debt obligations as soon asOctober 17.  The question for an increasingly nervous investing public is: how will this affect the U.S. economy and (not to be too selfish here) my retirement portfolio?
 
Interestingly, it is starting to look like the government shutdown, if it runs for weeks instead of months, might have almost no effect on the economy at all.  Why?  The economic impact that had economists worried was the loss of income suffered by tens of thousands of federal employees.  But the Defense Department has continued paying all of its civilian personnel, simply by declaring all of them “essential employees.”  Not only were the leaders of the House of Representatives not inclined to argue; they have quietly passed legislation that would give back-pay to all federal workers who have been furloughed, just as soon as the stalemate ends.  The Senate and the President are likely to go along, giving the country the worst of all worlds: paying most government employees for staying home and not providing a wide variety of services to the public.
 
Ironically, the way the politics are working, one can almost guarantee that there will continue to be a stock market selloff before the shutdown ends.  For the Republican leaders in the House, there is little cost to holding their ground so long as there is not a public outcry and loss of voter confidence.  One of the sources of that pain would be a big drop on Wall Street.  Indeed, if you listen closely to the speeches by President Obama and the Democratic leadership, you hear dire warnings of a market drop as a result of the shutdown–which is their way of focusing the public’s attention on who to blame as it happens. 
 
What is interesting about that is that the markets often deliver corrections after long, accelerating uptrends like what we have experienced in the U.S. since March of 2009, and with the 20+% returns that Wall Street has delivered so far this year.  It wouldn’t have surprised anyone to see some kind of a quick downturn this Fall regardless of whether the government was operating at full capacity or at a standstill.  A week of small leaks in stock prices could lead to something larger as people realize they are sitting on nice gains and have no idea what Congress will or won’t do next.  The last time the government was shut down, stocks dropped almost 20%, the Republican leadership realized it wasn’t winning any popularity contests and the stalemate ended.  We’ve seen this script before.
 
A more consequential issue is the debt ceiling.  Congress must raise the total amount that the U.S. government can borrow (by selling Treasury bonds) to pay its various obligations, including, of course, interest on its current Treasury bonds.  Contrary to popular belief, raising the debt ceiling does not increase the federal debt; that debt exists whether or not Congress authorizes additional borrowing.
 
Failure to authorize the government to pay its legal obligations would create a self-induced fiscal crisis–ironic for a country whose representatives claim that they never want to become another Greece, and then talk about voluntarily defaulting on the nation’s debt obligations, which even Greece has avoided. 
 
One recent article suggested that a default on Treasuries would ripple through the global economy, among other things, causing anxious investors to demand higher interest rates and dramatically raise U.S. borrowing costs.  That, in turn, would raise rates on mortgages, credit cards and student loans, pushing the U.S. toward or into recession, and putting pressure on the stock market.  One report suggests that if the U.S. misses just one interest payment, the downward impact on stock prices would be greater than the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy.  In THAT aftermath, the stock market lost more than half its value.
 
Bigger picture, a default would undermine the role of the U.S. in the world economy.
 
As I previously wrote, the irony of the debt ceiling debate is that the gap between government spending and tax revenues has been closing rapidly on its own.  In July, the Congressional Budget Office reported that the deficit had fallen by 37.6%, the result of tax increases and sequester-related cuts in spending.  As a percentage of America’s GDP, the deficit has fallen from more than 10% at the end of 2009 to somewhere around of 4% currently.  Last June, the government actually posted a surplus of $117 billion, paying down the overall deficit, and the Congressional Budget Office has projected that September will also bring government surpluses.
 
Most observers seem to think that all of this will get worked out.  After all, what rational person–in Congress or elsewhere–wants to self-impose these problems when we have plenty of economic challenges already?  The stock market’s relatively calm trading days tell us that investors expect a compromise on the government shutdown in the near future.  Nonetheless, it may take a sharp day of selling to prod Congress off the dime.  Foreign investors are still lending to the U.S. government at astonishingly low interest rates (despite modest increases over the past week), which tells us they aren’t worried about a default.
 
The previous times we went through events similar to this, the stock market plunges proved to be buying opportunities for investors.  One of the great things about uncertainty and volatility is that it causes investments to periodically go on sale, and creates such anxiety that only disciplined (and perhaps brave) investors are able to take advantage.  There’s no reason to think this won’t be more of the same.

Sources:
 
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/10/06/maybe-the-government-shutdown-wont-clobber-the-economy-after-all/
 
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57606253/debt-ceiling-understanding-whats-at-stake/
 
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/08/13/what-people-dont-know-about-the-deficit/
 
http://www.moneynews.com/newswidget/default-Catastrophe-lehman-demise/2013/10/07/id/529564?promo_code=125A8-1&utm_source=125A8Moneynews_Home&utm_medium=nmwidget&utm_campaign=widgetphase1

 

 

My thanks to Bob Veres of Inside Information for his help with this post

Scary Headlines, Remarkable Returns-3rd 2013 Quarterly Financial Review

The threat of a government shutdown virtually guaranteed that the investment markets would close out the third quarter with a whimper rather than a bang.  The S&P 500 index lost 1.1% of its value in the final week of the quarter as the U.S. Congress seemed to be lurching toward a political standstill that would shut down the U.S. government.  All the uncertainty has tended to obscure the fact that most U.S. stock market investors have experienced significant gains so far this year.
 
And the recent quarter was no exception.  Despite the rocky final week, the Wilshire 5000–the broadest measure of U.S. stocks and bonds–rose 6.60% for the third quarter–and now stands at a 22.31% gain for the first nine months of the year.  The comparable Russell 3000 index gained 6.35% in the most recent three months, posting a 21.30% gain as we head into the final stretch of 2013.
 
Other U.S. market sectors experienced comparable gains.  Large cap stocks, represented by the Wilshire U.S. Large Cap index, gained 6.24% in the second quarter, and are up 20.77% so far for the year.  The Russell 1000 large-cap index returned 6.02% for the quarter, up 20.76% for the year, while the widely-quoted S&P 500 index of large company stocks gained 5.32% for the quarter and is up 18.62% since January 1.
 
The Wilshire U.S. Mid-Cap index index rose 9.02% in the latest three months of the year, and is up 26.19% as we enter the final quarter.  The Russell midcap index was up 7.70% for the third quarter, and now stands at a 24.34% gain so far this year.
 
Small company stocks, as measured by the Wilshire U.S. Small-Cap, gained 9.68% in the third quarter; the index is up 27.53% so far this year.  The comparable Russell 2000 small-cap index was up 10.21% in the second three months of the year, posting a 27.69% gain in the year’s first nine months.  The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index was up 11.16% for the quarter, and has gained 25.24% for its investors so far this year.

Keep in mind that while a diversified portfolio of cash, stocks, bonds, real estate and other asset classes may not provide you with the full returns shown above, you are also not taking on the risk of a 100% equity portfolio. That’s just smart money and risk management.
 
In the first half of the year, any diversification into investments other than U.S. stocks were dragging down returns.  That was no longer the case in the 3rd quarter.  The broad-based EAFE index of larger foreign companies in developed economies rose 10.94% in dollar terms during the third quarter of the year, and is up 13.36% so far this year.  The biggest surprise is Europe: a basket of European stocks rose 13.16% over the past three months, which accounts for virtually all of their returns this year; the index is now up 13.17% for the year. 
 
Emerging markets stocks are climbing out of a deep hole that they fell into earlier in the year, returning 5.01% in the past three months, even though the EAFE Emerging Markets index is still down 6.42% for the year. 
 
Other investment categories are not faring so well.  Real estate, as measured by the Wilshire REIT index, fell 1.98% for the quarter, though it is still standing at a 3.84% gain for the year.  Commodities, as measured by the S&P GSCI index, reversed their recent slide and rose 5.44% this past quarter, taking them to nearly even, just down 0.27% so far in 2013.  Gold prices perked up on the uncertainty over the government shutdown, gaining 9.26% in the recent quarter, though gold investors have lost 20.48% on their holdings so far this year. 
 
Bonds have continued to provide disappointing returns both in terms of yield and total return.  The Barclay’s Global Aggregate bond index is down 2.24% so far this year, and the U.S. Aggregate index has lost 1.87% of its value in the same time period. 
 
In the Treasury markets, the year has seen a bifurcated market; declining yields in bonds with 12 month or lower maturities, while longer-term bonds have experienced rising yields and a corresponding decline in the value of the bonds held by investors.  In the past year, the yield on 10-year Treasuries have risen almost a percentage point, to 2.65%, and 30-year bonds are now yielding 3.73%, up 86 basis points over the past 12 months.    
 
Municipal bonds have seen comparable rate rises; a basket of state and local bonds with 30-year maturities are now yielding 4.32% a year; 10-year munis are returning an average of 2.56% a year.  The rises, of course, have caused losses in muni portfolios.
 
Perhaps the most interesting thing to notice about America’s 20+% stock market returns so far this year–extraordinary by any measure–is that they were accomplished at a time when investors seemed to be constantly skittish.  Just a few weeks ago, everybody seemed to be worried that the Federal Reserve would end its QE3 program and let interest rates find their natural balance in the economy.  One might wonder why this would be such a scary event, since it is the Fed’s economists way of telling us that the U.S. economy is finally getting back on its feet.
 
All eyes are still on Washington, but now they’ve moved from the Fed to the Capitol Building.  The question everybody has been asking in the final days of the quarter is: what would be the investment and economic impact of a government shutdown?  This question might be one to consider going forward, since the two parties seem to have a lot of fundamental disagreements over spending priorities, and budget battles could become quarterly events.
 
An article in the Los Angeles Times says that most economists and analysts seem to expect a partial two-week government shutdown.  The lost pay for hundreds of thousands of furloughed federal workers would cut 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points off of fourth quarter growth–the difference between weak 2% growth annual growth that the economy is currently experiencing and an anemic 1.6% growth rate that would be flirting with recession.  An estimate by Goldman Sachs puts the potential lost GDP at 0.9%.
 
A longer shutdown could cause disruptions in private-sector production and investments, and would almost certainly lead to stock market declines.  The L.A. Times article notes that stocks lost about 4% of their value during the December 1995-January 1996 shutdown.  Job growth stalled, and the GDP gained just 2.7% in that first quarter. Interestingly, in all cases of past government shutdowns, the stock market recovered all of the losses and then some. That could be why the market is holding up well right now, but a protracted shutdown creates uncertainty and the markets hate uncertainty.
 
Interestingly, Congress has quietly moved away from the issue that has triggered the last few budget stalemates, focusing this time on whether or not to fully fund President Obama’s health care legislation.  In the past, the issue was budget deficits, but it turns out that the budget deficit has come down dramatically over the past 12 months.  The U.S. government posted a $117 billion surplus in June, and the Congressional Budget Office expects to run a surplus again in September–the result of revenue gains as a result of tax hikes plus the growing economy, coupled with a 10% reduction in spending. 
 
What does all this mean for your investments in the final 2013 quarter?  Who knows?  Nobody could have predicted, at the start of the year, with all the hand-wringing over the fiscal cliff and new tax legislation, that we would be standing nine months into 2013 with significant investment gains in the U.S. markets and a resurgence in global investments led by, of all places, Europe.
 
This much we can predict: the recent uncertainties–the paralysis in Congress, worries about the direction of interest rates and whether the Fed is going to stop intervening in the markets–will give way to new worries, new uncertainties, which will make all of us feel in our guts like the world is going to hell in a handbasket. With that said, the bull market that started in March 2009 is getting long in the tooth and is overdue for a longer period of rest (10% or more correction, or even a bear market)
 
Nonetheless, the headlines obscure the fact that investment returns are created the hard way, by millions of people getting up in the morning and going to work and spending their day finding ways to improve American businesses, generate profits, create new products and new markets, day after day after day. 
 
Whatever ups and downs you experience–and you WILL experience them, perhaps in the next quarter or the next year–that underlying driver of business enterprises and stock value is constantly working on your behalf.  That will be true no matter what the headlines say, no matter how spooked you feel about whatever scary thing is going on in the world.  Nobody enjoys the investment ride the way children enjoy the thrills of a roller coaster, but both seem to ultimately deliver their riders to a semblance of safety in the end.

I hope you’re having a great week and I welcome your questions, feedback and comments. If you or someone you know is looking for a fee-only fiduciary advisor or money manager who puts your interests first, please don’t hesitate to get in touch with me.

 

Sources:
 
Wilshire index data: http://www.wilshire.com/Indexes/calculator/
 
Russell index data: http://www.russell.com/indexes/data/daily_total_returns_us.asp
 
S&P index data: http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-500/en/us/?indexId=spusa-500-usduf–p-us-l–
 
Nasdaq index data: http://quicktake.morningstar.com/Index/IndexCharts.aspx?Symbol=COMP
 
International indices:http://www.mscibarra.com/products/indices/international_equity_indices/performance.html
 
Commodities index data: http://us.spindices.com/index-family/commodities/sp-gsci
 
Treasury market rates: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us/
 
Aggregate corporate bond rates: http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds/composite_bond_rates
 
Government shutdown impact:  http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-shutdown-economy-20131001,0,155302.story
 
Budget surpluses:  http://www.cnbc.com/id/100880536
 
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101030631
 
 
My thanks to Bob Veres, publisher of Inside Information for his help with this article.
 
 

Handle Asset Location With Care

An old question has become new again.  You have tax-deferred accounts like IRAs and Roth IRAs, and you have accounts that pay taxes every year on the income they receive.  Where do you put different types of assets? 

The answer is that you want to put the most tax-inefficient investments inside the tax-deferred accounts.  The most notoriously tax-inefficient investments, historically, have been bond funds, commodities futures funds and real estate investment trusts (REITs), which all generate ordinary income that can be taxed at 39.6% plus the 3.8% Medicare tax for higher-income taxpayers.  The Roth IRA, which shelters all future returns from taxes of any sort, can be a great place for mutual funds that invest in small cap stocks, since they tend to have high turnover and historically have provided the highest gains.  

In taxable accounts, you might put growth stocks which, if you hold them for more than a year, will have their price appreciation taxed at a maximum rate of 20% (or 23.8% with the Medicare surtax).  Of course, you can choose to hold individual securities for much longer periods, which gives you tax deferral on its own–and, if the stocks are held until death, the heirs get a step-up in basis, which basically means any rise in value is never taxed.  Municipal bonds which qualify for an exemption from federal taxes are also good candidates for the taxable portion of your investment accounts. 

What makes this debate new again?   Higher ordinary income tax rates, and potentially higher capital gains tax rates (up from 15% to 23.8% for tax filers who have to pay the new Medicare surtax) have introduced some gray areas, as have the historically low rates on bonds.  When bonds were delivering upwards of 10% on the investment dollar, putting them in an IRA was a no-brainer.  But what if you’re cautious about rising rates, and you’ve shortened maturities in a yield-starved market, so your return is closer to 1%?   Suddenly, these funds are no longer a huge tax concern. 

At the same time, REITs offer tax benefits like depreciation, which becomes more valuable at higher ordinary income rates.  And persons in retirement may see their tax rates fall from above 39% down to 15%, which decreases the benefits of astute asset location, and might raise the value of rebalancing each year across all accounts. 

Another consideration for retirees is the mandatory withdrawals they have to take from their IRA account after they reach age 70 1/2.  If the IRA is holding all the income-generating investments, then systematically liquidating those holdings means creating a higher exposure to stocks and a generally more volatile portfolio as you age–which may be the opposite of what is desired.

Saving taxes through asset location strategies is one of those rare opportunities to get additional dollars without taking additional risk–but a mindless focus on taxes without looking at the bigger picture can result in unintended consequences.  The rules of thumb need to be informed by your tax bracket and other aspects of your individual circumstances–with an eye on the ever-changing tax and interest rates that Congress and the markets throw at us. 

Source:

http://www.financial-planning.com/fp_issues/43_8/asset-allocation-rules-2685905-1.html?zkPrintable=1&nopagination=1

 

 

 Many thanks to Bob Veres, publisher of Inside Information for his help writing this blog post.

 

What’s Going on in the Markets – Tuesday June 21 2011

As communicated in my post last week, the stock markets were overdue for a rally.  And as expected, we rallied for the fourth day in a row today.  What distinguishes today’s rally from the previous three days is that the market has now switched from a downtrend to a new confirmed uptrend.  The real tell was the amount of volume traded on the stock exchanges and it was much higher today than the previous three rally days.  Thus, today we got what is known as a “follow-through day” in the markets. 

Expectations of a Greek bailout, an upcoming great 2nd quarter corporate earnings season (beginning in July) along with lower oil prices have helped improve investor and institutional optimism.  Institutions are also facing quarter-end, so they help buy up the market in the last couple of weeks to make their results look better.  As you know, we closed out our hedges (profitably) in the middle of last week in anticipation of this rally.

With any follow-through day, there are risks that the rally fails and the downtrend reasserts itself.  This is why a follow-through day comes on the fourth day of a rally attempt and no earlier.  Unfortunately, it sometimes takes two or more failed attempts before the rally succeeds. In fact, a failed follow-through day occurred most recently on May 31 when institutions sold into the rally the day after the uptrend was confirmed.  So while all signals point to a rally in the short term (my guess is that it lasts perhaps 1-3 weeks), we have to be cognizant that markets are on edge these days as we digest the news of a global economic slowdown, the prospect of more European debt woes and the prospect of a delayed extension of the national debt ceiling in Congress. 
A new rally is most vulnerable in its first few days and, once those have passed, the chances of succeeding increase dramatically.  In any case, volatility and low volume, as I’ve mentioned before, are characteristics of summertime stock markets.  So markets are more easily pushed around in this environment.

What this means for client portfolios is that new investments of cash are safer during a confirmed uptrend, which is what I started doing today.  But in the current environment, just like with hedges, new investments could turn into short-term trades if the market decides not to cooperate.  So even though we are investing for the long term with the majority of the portfolios, a small percentage of each portfolio is invested on a short-term (or very short-term) basis to take advantage of market swings and volatility.  This could be hours, days or weeks depending on how the markets behave.  In my opinion, proper diversification of portfolios includes both long-term investments and short-term ones as well.

I hope this helps you understand a little better how I’m approaching this market and trying to help manage portfolios.  As usual, please don’t rely on my prognostications as a basis for any investment or trading decisions; consult with your advisor or us if you have any questions about how to invest in these markets.  My crystal ball remains in the shop, so I’m no better at predicting the future than the next fortune teller.  What I do best is act as your risk manager and thereby mitigate the risk of bad things happening to portfolios while enhancing portfolio returns.

I welcome your questions and appreciate your referrals.  Happy first day of summer 2011!

What’s Going on in the Markets – Thursday June 16 2011

The past several weeks in the stock markets have been quite trying for anyone paying close attention to what’s been going on.  As of today (Thursday June 16), we are working on a possible seventh down week in a row in the stock markets.  Since 1933, this has only happened three times, while the markets being down six weeks in a row has occurred seventeen times. Tomorrow is our last hope of an upside rally that takes the markets positive for the week and avoids making history by being the fourth time we see seven down weeks in a row.  Despite how bad this may sound, the selling has not been so intense to be considered anything more than a normal stock market correction within this bull market.
 
Why are the markets so intent on going down? Well, as I described in my last couple of writings, the end of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve (buying treasury bonds), an apparent slowing in the economy, continued debt woes in Europe (Greece is in the forefront this week), and the failure of Congress to pass an increase in the debt ceiling.  Employers remain reluctant to hire new employees due to uncertainty surrounding health care and other financial legislation (e.g., the burdensome health care costs involved with hiring a 25th employee).
 
Of course, with several weeks down in the markets, every doom and gloom scenario and “Johnnie’s come lately” hawking another “End of the World” book come out of the woodwork, make the talk and news show circuits and call for Dow 5,000 and S&P 300 (they’re around 12,000 and 1,268 right now.)  Just yesterday, noted economist and academician Robert Shiller declared that we are definitely headed for another recession (of course we are, but it won’t be this year and probably not next year!)  Am I concerned that the economy may be slowing? Of course I am.  But to date the weight of evidence is that we are slowing, not stopping or switching to negative growth.  We endured a similar “soft patch” last spring and summer and the markets have made new highs since then. I continue to believe (guess?) that the disruption in the global supply chain caused by the Japan earthquake tragedy has thrown a wrench into the worldwide economic recovery story and that the second half of 2011 will see growth re-accelerate. Those who state otherwise are also guessing.
 
I stated in my last “What’s Going on with the Markets” newsletter that I believe that we are probably headed to test the 1,257 (the Japan earthquake low) or 1,250 level on the S&P 500 stock market index. Today we hit 1,258 before settling up at around 1,268. Was today the bottom? I really don’t know (neither does anyone else).  But all the signs and indicators that I pay attention to would indicate that today’s successful test of the Japan low might be sufficient to give the market a bit of a lift, at least temporarily.
 
So what do we do in the case of a market correction like this? If the decline is more than modest or is expected to be more than modest, we hedge client portfolios with leveraged inverse funds or options. This helps us keep our investment positions in place while hedging the risk a bit.  While this doesn’t totally protect the downside, it does allow us to mitigate (and perhaps profit) from the downside in the markets.  When we hedge portfolios in this manner, we take a portion or all available cash and buy the inverse funds on a temporary or “rental” basis. We may be in these inverse funds for a few hours, days, weeks or months depending on the market action. 
 
By definition, a hedge may be a drag on overall returns while it is on, but it can also be profitable if you manage it properly and the markets are not too volatile.  When market indexes give signals that the downturn may be over and a new uptrend may be afoot, we take off the hedges to fully benefit from the uptrend.  While no one person (including me) can perfectly time the market top or bottom, you can learn the rhythms, signals and technical indicators of the market and protect portfolios.  While some may be concerned with trading costs of hedging a portfolio, keep in mind that commissions are relatively cheap (and quite cheap compared to the protection the hedges provide).
 
I expect that we will bounce back a bit tomorrow and perhaps rally over the next week or so because the market is quite a bit “oversold”.  As a result, I removed our portfolio hedges today (at a small profit) to take advantage of such a rally.  Summer markets tend to be low volume and volatile, so I’m not sure that any rally will be sustained throughout the summer, but I don’t see us selling off in a big way.  When a new confirmed market uptrend asserts itself, I will be the first to deploy new cash into the market.  I will however reiterate, as I have in the past, that no one should trade or invest based on my prognostications. While I continue to be positive on the market, you should consult with your own advisor (or us) before making any investment decisions based on my comments. 
 
We are happy to speak with anyone who might be interested in discussing financial planning or money management.  As usual, there is no obligation, pressure or cost for speaking with us. If you have any questions about this market update or any other financial matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us.

What’s Going on in the Markets – Monday June 6 2011

Today marked the fourth day in a row of intense selling in the stock markets immediately after the markets gave a technical “buy” signal last Tuesday.  Last Wednesday, the markets staged a hard reversal to the downside and have not yet recovered.

Economic indicators of late have been coming in worse than expected with recent slowdowns in manufacturing and hiring and higher unemployment claims. Last Friday the labor department reported the creation of 54,000 new jobs during the month of May while analysts were projecting 150,000-175,000 new jobs created.  Needless to say, the markets were disappointed and continued the sell-off that started last Wednesday.

While there are many possible reasons discussed for the market’s indigestion (e.g., the end of the Federal Reserve’s bond buying program in June, the earthquake in Japan, continued sovereign debt woes in Europe, lack of agreement in Congress on extending the debt ceiling, lower consumer confidence, high joblessness), no one really knows the exact reason why the markets sell off on any particular day.  As I indicated in a previous message, institutions take profits periodically on positions to help reset prices and make the market more enticing for those standing on the sidelines waiting to buy at lower prices.  While the institutions (who make up the bulk of buying and selling in the markets) may view slower growth as reasons to sell, they have not been selling with wild abandon by any means.  So one could say that the correction has been somewhat orderly (but any declines in prices are never pleasant).  In other words, institutions don’t appear to be positioning for a bear market or a recession in the near future.

My intermediate and longer term indicators are still bullish even as this 5% correction (so far) may get to 10%.  As a reference point, the markets corrected 13-15% last summer and that set us up for much higher stock prices.  While the gains we’ve seen so far will likely not be repeated, I still expect a respectable finish for the year with a positive return in the stock markets (though my crystal ball is in the shop, so please don’t make any investing decisions based on this prognostication.) The summer months tend to be volatile and of low volume, so market swings are frequent and sometimes abrupt.  I believe that corporate earnings (which ultimately drive stock prices) will continue to surprise to the upside (if they’re not hiring, then costs stay low).  The effects of the tragic Japanese earthquake, which caused a hiccup in the markets this quarter, will begin to wane and offer opportunities for companies to help with the rebuilding, and thereby also help with future corporate earnings.  Finally, the costs of oil and other commodities overall have come down and will ultimately reduce inflation pressure.

How should you handle this correction? For most, doing nothing may be the right answer and simply “ride out” this correction.  For my clients, I have once again begun hedging portfolios in case the correction proves to be more protracted than expected.  I have already become more defensive by reducing more risky types of positions and adding more defensive ones.  But in an overall stock market correction, ultimately 3 out of 4 stocks will follow the market down, so there’s no good place to really hide. As this correction plays out and support wanes for certain sectors, I will slowly scale out of those positions and wait to buy them back at lower prices as appropriate.  If necessary, I will add more to our hedges to reduce our overall equity exposure and risk.  New positions are on hold until a new uptrend is confirmed.  This is by no means a recommendation of what you should do with your portfolio if you’re a “do-it-yourselfer”, so please consult with a professional (like me!) if you’d like to protect your portfolio or figure out what you should do.  Every investor and his or her goals are different, and that’s how we handle each client–individually.  In any case, the correction may take us down to the 1250 level in the S&P 500 index (the March 2011 Japan earthquake low) or down to 1200 (less likely in my opinion).

With four down days in a row, we might see a bit of a relief rally tomorrow (Tuesday), but I’m not expecting any type of big reversal.  With the amount of selling that has been going on lately, I just don’t expect the markets to turn around that quickly and “rip” to the upside without a catalyst. Ultimately, corrections are healthy for the markets and they will recover in time. It’s just never fun to watch the markets (and our portfolios) go down, but if you’re a long term investor, this is merely a bump in the road.  If I see that circumstances have changed and my technical indicators flash warning signs, you can bet that you’ll hear from me again and I’ll be taking appropriate action.

I welcome your questions and feedback. If you’re not yet a client, keep in mind that your first consultation is complimentary and comes with no pressure and no obligation whatsoever.  As a fee-only advisor, I put your interests first and work as your fiduciary. Not all advisors can make this statement.

What’s Going on With the Markets-March 10, 2011

Since the beginning of last September, the stock markets have enjoyed a nearly uninterrupted bull uptrend which has been unprecedented in market history.  Fueled by improving economics and Federal Reserve actions, the uptrend has withstood many geopolitical, fiscal and news driven setbacks.  But today the political unrest in the Middle East, issues with Spanish debt repayment and a higher than expected weekly first-time unemployment claim number (497,000) were the 1-2-3 punch that the markets could not recover from and therefore we suffered a 1.5-2.5% setback.  Be it stocks, gold, silver or oil today, they were all down today.

Normally, up-trending bull markets such as the one we’re in take rest periods, or “corrections” as they’re called, every couple of months while individuals and institutions take profits on stock positions and reset stock prices back to normal levels. Corrections (usually 10-20% of an index value such as the S&P 500) are healthy for the market and while uncomfortable if you watch them unfold from day to day, allow the markets to set up for the next leg up.  Two years to the day yesterday into this bull run have seen us move up about 100% from the March 9, 2009 lows on the S&P 500 index. Without a doubt, this has been an incredible run and I hope you’ve been participating.

As I’ve discussed with clients and prospects recently, a correction in the market has been long overdue and anticipated.  While today was the first big down day where we really tested key levels in the indexes, there have been several signs of exhaustion in the market. Despite this, I cannot say with certainty whether we’ve definitively entered into a correction period (technically we have, but it needs to be confirmed with follow-through on Friday and next week.)  If the bulls get their act together tomorrow and “rescue” the market by pushing it back up through heavy volume buying, then this decline may be “all she wrote.”  If not, we could head down to test the 1275 level of the S&P 500 index (we closed at 1295 today).  A failure to hold the 1275 level means that large institutions have decided to continue selling and a drop to 1240 may need to exhaust sellers.

With the “Day of Rage” demonstrations scheduled for Friday in Saudi Arabia, rocketing oil prices and sovereign debt issues, the odds of avoiding a deeper correction are not very high.  Besides, this correction is long overdue and may occur regardless of how peacefully the Middle East situation is resolved or even if oil prices come back down to earth.

What do I think? As I’ve mentioned before, the Federal Reserve has made investing in anything but the stock market earn near zero returns. That is, the government wants us to buy equities, push the stock market (and IRA’s and 401(k)’s) higher, to make us feel richer and more confident and therefore spend more.  Spending more creates demand which in turn creates jobs and so on.  So I believe that the gentle (if somewhat invisible) hand will come in to help support the market and avoid a protracted decline that might scare off the latest entrants into the market. While my crystal ball is still in the shop, I believe that a decline beyond 1275 in the S&P 500 (another 1.5%) is a stretch.  While that would make it a very shallow correction, it may be enough to breathe new life into the stock market and help resume the uptrend.

So what should you do now in light of a possible correction?  Basically, you shouldn’t do much if anything since nothing is confirmed.  If you’re investing on your own, trying to time your “in’s and out’s” of the markets is nearly impossible and not recommended unless you’re an experienced trader.  If you have a profitable position and worry about it turning into a loss, you may decide to sell a portion or all of it.  More savvy investors may be able to hedge their positions with options or inverse ETF’s if the decline proves to be protracted.  From our end for our clients, I’m watching the market technical levels on a daily basis like a hawk and already have begun to harvest some profits and protect some positions. If a protracted downturn does materialize, I may also hedge portfolios with inverse ETF’s and selectively liquidate partial positions.  But we’re not there yet and I’m not making any recommendations.  And by no means do I think we’re entering another bear market (by definition, a bear market begins when we decline 20% from the last peak in a major index).  Non-clients should consult their current advisor (or me) if you’re unsure what to do in the event of a protracted decline and should not treat this as a recommendation to buy or sell anything (see disclaimer below).

Last year we declined nearly 15% from May through August amid sovereign debt worries and economic uncertainty and then proceeded to push up nearly 25% over the next six months. I still believe that we will end 2011 with double-digit gains in the markets as this economy matures from recovery to expansion.  All economic indicators point positively and last month we even added nearly 200,000 new jobs.  We may even see housing perk up a bit later this year.  Without a doubt, sustained oil prices above $125 per barrel and $4 gasoline for an extended period (6 months or more), will put a crimp into the expansion, but I don’t believe we’re heading for a long term spike in oil prices.  Let’s just say that the oil producing countries learned what supply constraints and speculation did to oil demand the last time oil spiked to $145 a barrel. More electric and hybrid cars is just one example of how we are learning to live with less demand for foreign oil.

I hope this message helps alleviate any anxiety over the recent down days in the market.  Remember that the media loves good negative stories to help sell newspapers and advertising. Avoid the noise and try to keep your sanity during the days when it seems like there’s always something bad going on in the world.  Middle Eastern concerns have been a worry for decades, if not centuries now, and likely won’t be resolved during our lifetimes.  Like every other world incident, the markets get back to normal and we get through them.

Enjoy the upcoming weekend and don’t hesitate to contact me if I can be of any help.  If you’re not a client, your consultation with me is complimentary, no-pressure and with no obligation.  I’d love to talk to you whether or not you’re considering hiring a financial planner or money manager.

Sam H. Fawaz CFP®, CPA is president of YDream Financial Services, Inc., a registered investment advisor. Sam is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP®), Certified Public Accountant and registered member of the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors (NAPFA) fee-only financial planner group.  Sam has expertise in many areas of personal finance and wealth management and has always been fascinated with the role of money in society.  Helping others prosper and succeed has been Sam’s mission since he decided to dedicate his life to financial planning.  He specializes in entrepreneurs, professionals, company executives and their families.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable, but we cannot attest to its accuracy.  Investment recommendations may change and readers are urged to check with their investment advisors before making any investment decisions.  Opinions expressed in this writing by Sam H. Fawaz are his own, may change without prior notice and should not be relied upon as a basis for making investment or planning decisions.  No person can accurately forecast or call a market top or bottom, so forward looking statements should be discounted and not relied upon as a basis for investing or trading decisions. This message was authored by Sam H. Fawaz CPA, CFP and is provided by YDream Financial Services, Inc.

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