Market & Economic Summary for the Week Ended January 10, 2025

The S&P 500 index closed almost two percent lower after a fairly volatile, shortened trading week as investors grapple with uncertainty regarding future monetary policy and economic conditions. The NASDAQ index shed 2.2% while the small capitalization stocks slid 3.4% on the week, giving up their prior week‘s strength.

The post-election market “bump” we saw has all but been dissipated as institutional distribution (selling) continued this week, raising concerns of a more extended market correction.

Friday’s Employment Situation Summary (AKA the monthly jobs report) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for December surprised forecasts, coming in with 256K new jobs while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. Employment increases were seen in health care, retail, government, and social assistance. While a positive development, all but retail are non-cyclical sectors that are less sensitive to economic fluctuations. Stocks sold off and interest rates ticked up in response as the report reduces the possibility of additional rate cuts in 2025.

Job Openings from the BLS for November reported an increase to its highest level since May. Despite this, both the hiring and quits rate ticked down, suggesting that employers are hiring cautiously and that workers may feel less confident about finding new job opportunities.

The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Services Sector rose in December, signaling continued expansion. However, a dramatic increase in the Prices Paid subcomponent is concerning, indicating that inflation pressures are becoming more pervasive. Despite improvements in most components, bond yields jumped higher and stocks sold off, proving that good economic news can sometimes elicit a bad market reaction.

A deeper look beneath the surface reveals why the situation may not be as encouraging as it seems. Many survey respondents cited end-of-year seasonal factors that boosted demand (perhaps to front-run potential tariffs.) Indeed, the main focus was tied to concerns about potential tariffs. This implies that the services sector could be weaker in the coming months if new policies are introduced.

Since September, the Federal Reserve has implemented several short-term interest rate cuts in an attempt to support economic growth. However, despite these efforts, longer-term bond yields have actually continued to climb (pressuring bond prices.) This suggests that some investors may be rejecting the idea that inflation has been tamed, which would likely limit the Fed’s ability to reduce rates further in the near term.

Friday’s preliminary January reading of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan saw a fractional decrease from last month. However, the Current Conditions component improved while the Consumer Expectations component fell, reflecting concerns over future economic growth. Inflation uncertainty has climbed considerably over the past twelve months and year-ahead expectations soared in January, its highest reading since May 2024.

Sam H. Fawaz is the President of YDream Financial Services, Inc., a fee-only investment advisory and financial planning firm serving the entire United States. If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other tax or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first with no products to sell. If you are not a client, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client and their financial plan and investment objectives are different.

Source: InvesTech Research

Market & Economic Summary for the Week Ended January 3, 2025

In another volatile holiday-shortened week, the S&P 500 index closed 0.5% lower as the euphoric end-of-year rally lost all momentum. The NASDAQ index closed down 0.75%, while the small capitalization stocks finally showed some strength and closed up 0.9%. The traditional year-end Santa Claus rally was MIA as more signs of institutional distribution (selling) emerged.

The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Purchasing Managers (PMI) Index (1) for Manufacturing came in at 49.3%, just 0.9 percentage points higher than November’s reading but still in contraction. While manufacturing is still in contraction overall, it is moving slower. Additionally, the New Orders Index improved in December.

However, the report also showed that the Employment Index decreased and fell deeper into contraction while the Prices Index rose and grew faster. If manufacturing employment continues to decline while prices climb and overall contraction persists, even an increase in new orders may not keep the manufacturing sector afloat.

Pending Home Sales (2) from the National Association of Realtors increased by 2.2%, suggesting buyers may no longer be willing to wait for lower mortgage rates. The 30-year fixed rate is still increasing and nearing 7%.

The 20-City Adjusted Case-Shiller Home Price Index for October was up 0.3% versus September (4.2% year over year), slightly higher than expected.

Monitoring additional housing metrics in the coming weeks will be essential to gauge the housing market’s health in 2025.

Weekly jobless claims came in at 211,000, lower than expectations for 225,000, showing continued stability. This data tends to be volatile around the holidays.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its monthly jobs report for December on Friday, January 10.

YDream Financial Services is an investment advisory and financial planning firm serving the entire United States. If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first. If you are not a client, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client and your financial plan and investment objectives are different.

(1) The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released on the first business day of each month for the previous month, surveys purchasing and supply executives around the country on new orders, production, employment, and much more. Manufacturing supply executives are polled on their view of the current economic climate concerning their respective businesses. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index – “they have properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change.” A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, while a reading below 50 percent indicates that it is typically declining. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is considered a highly reliable gauge of current business conditions for the manufacturing sector.

(2) The Pending Home Sales Index from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) is a leading indicator for the housing sector based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is pending if a contract has been signed but has not yet closed. Typically, these sales close within two months of a contract signing.

Source: InvesTech Research

Markets & Macroeconomic Summary for the Week Ended December 27, 2024

The S&P 500 index closed 0.65% higher in a volatile, shortened holiday trading week. The NASDAQ index gained 0.75%, while the small caps were slightly positive, up 0.21%. The Microcap index outperformed for the week, bouncing up 1.3%. Additional signs of bearish distribution appeared this week.

Another holiday-shortened trading week is ahead, with the stock markets closed on New Year’s Day. Whether Santa can right his sleigh and deliver further gains in his traditional year-end rally remains to be seen.

Durable Goods, a volatile data series, was better than expected. It showed that new orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods surged in November, up 0.7%, amid strong demand for machinery. However, new orders were down 1.1% month-over-month, missing expectations.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading was down from last month’s reading and notably lower than forecast. The Present Situation and Expectations Indexes fell, with the Expectations Index just slightly above the Conference Board’s 80.0 “recession threshold.” This was surprising given the renewed post-election euphoria and optimism expected to continue.

While only a single monthly data point, it is surprising that the post-election rebound in Consumer Confidence was not sustained. If consumer attitudes continue to sour and spending slows dramatically, it can significantly impact the stock market and economy in 2025.

New Home Sales from the Census Bureau were up 5.9% in November. Sales rose despite decades-high mortgage rates, mainly due to a drop in the median sales price, which saw its lowest price tag since February 2022. New home inventory was down slightly and represents a supply of 8.9 months at current prices.

Key housing-related stocks have continued to suffer due to rising interest rates. The 30-year mortgage rate from Freddie Mac rose to 6.9% this week, notably higher than its interim low of 6.1% in late September. Continued housing weakness could also indicate impending economic and stock market weakness.

Source: InvesTech Research

Understanding Beneficial Ownership Information (BOI) Reporting Requirements

Starting January 1, 2024, many businesses and non-business entities must comply with the Corporate Transparency Act (CTA). The CTA was enacted into law as part of the National Defense Act for Fiscal Year 2021. The CTA requires disclosing the beneficial ownership information (BOI) of certain entities from people who own or control a company.

It is anticipated that 32.6 million businesses will be required to comply with this reporting requirement. The intent of the BOI reporting requirement is to help U.S. law enforcement combat money laundering and the financing of terrorism and other illicit activity.

The CTA is not part of the tax code. Instead, it is part of the Bank Secrecy Act, a set of federal laws that require record-keeping and report filing on certain types of financial transactions. Under the CTA, BOI reports will not be filed with the IRS but with the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), another agency of the Department of the Treasury.

Below is some preliminary information for you to consider as you approach the implementation period for this new reporting requirement. This information is meant to be general in nature. It should not be applied to your specific facts and circumstances without consultation with competent legal counsel or other retained professional adviser.

What entities are required to comply with the CTA’s BOI reporting requirement?

Entities organized both in the U.S. and outside the U.S. may be subject to the CTA’s reporting requirements. Domestic companies required to report include corporations, limited liability companies (LLCs), or any similar entity created by filing a document with a secretary of state or any similar office under the law of a state or Indian tribe. This may even include seemingly innocuous entities like the homeowner’s associations (HOA) and HOA board members.

Domestic entities not created by filing a document with a secretary of state or similar office are not required to report under the CTA.

Foreign companies required to report under the CTA include corporations, LLCs, or any similar entity formed under the law of a foreign country and registered to do business in any state or tribal jurisdiction by filing a document with a secretary of state or similar office.

Are there any exemptions from the filing requirements?

There are 23 categories of exemptions. Among the exemptions are publicly traded companies, banks and credit unions, securities brokers/dealers, public accounting firms, tax-exempt entities, and certain inactive entities. Please note that these are not blanket exemptions, and many of these entities are already heavily regulated by the government and thus already disclose their BOI to a government authority.

In addition, certain “large operating entities” are exempt from filing. To qualify for this exemption, the company must:

  1. Employ more than 20 people in the U.S.;
  2. Have reported gross revenue (or sales) of over $5M on the prior year’s tax return; and
  3. Be physically present in the U.S.

Who is a beneficial owner?

Any individual who, directly or indirectly, either:

  • Exercises “substantial control” over a reporting company, or
  • Owns or controls at least 25 percent of the ownership interests of a reporting company

An individual has substantial control of a reporting company if they direct, determine, or exercise substantial influence over its important decisions. This includes any senior officers of the reporting company, regardless of formal title or if they have no ownership interest in the reporting company.

The detailed CTA regulations define “substantial control” and “ownership interest” further.

When must companies file?

Different filing timeframes apply depending on when an entity is registered/formed or if the beneficial owner’s information changes.

  • New entities (created/registered in 2024) — must file within 90 days of creation/registration
  • New entities (created/registered after 12/31/2024) — must file within 30 days
  • Existing entities (created/registered before 1/1/24) — must file by 1/1/25
  • Reporting companies that have changes to previously reported information or discover inaccuracies in previously filed reports — must file within 30 days

Entities dissolved or terminated during 2024 may still be obligated to file a BOI.

To date, FinCEN has issued five notices extending the filing deadlines for certain reporting companies to submit BOI reports in response to Hurricanes Milton, Helene, Debby, Beryl, and Francine.

What sort of information is required to be reported?

Companies must report the following information:

  1. The full name of the reporting company
  2. Any trade name or doing business as (DBA) name
  3. Business address, state or Tribal jurisdiction of formation
  4. IRS taxpayer identification number (TIN).

Additionally, information on the entity’s beneficial owners and, for newly created entities, the company applicants is required. This information includes the name, birth date, address, and unique identifying number and issuing jurisdiction from an acceptable identification document (e.g., a driver’s license or passport) and an image of such document.

What is the Cost of Filing and Risk of Non-compliance

There is no fee for filing the BOI report, which can only be filed online.

Penalties for willfully not complying with the BOI reporting requirement can result in criminal and civil penalties of $591 per day and up to $10,000 with up to two years of jail time. For more information about the CTA, visit Beneficial Ownership Information.

Beware of BOI Fraudulent Scams

FinCEN has learned of fraudulent attempts to solicit information from individuals and entities who may be subject to reporting requirements under the CTA.

These fraudulent scams may include:

  • Correspondence referencing a “Form 4022” or “Form 5102” is fraudulent. FinCEN does not have a “Form 4022” or a “Form 5102.” Do not send BOI to anyone by completing these forms.
  • Correspondence or other documents referencing a “US Business Regulations Dept.” This correspondence is fraudulent; there is no government entity by this name.

Please be on the lookout for anything that may indicate that the correspondence you receive is fraudulent. For example, be cautious of any of the following:

  • Correspondence requesting payment. There is NO fee to file BOI directly with FinCEN. FinCEN does NOT send correspondence requesting payment to file BOI. Do not send money in response to any mailing regarding filing your beneficial ownership information report that claims to be from FinCEN or another government agency.
  • Correspondence that asks the recipient to click on a suspicious URL or to scan a suspicious QR code. Those e-mails or letters could be fraudulent. Do not click suspicious links or attachments or scan any suspicious QR codes.
  • Correspondence regarding penalties. FinCEN does NOT send initial correspondence regarding CTA penalties via e-mail or phone. Do not submit payments via phone, mail, or websites, as requests/directions are fraudulent.

Use caution when you receive correspondence from an unknown party. Verify the sender. Never give anyone personal information, including beneficial ownership, unless you know and trust the other party.

For more information, FinCEN has prepared Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) in response to inquiries about the Beneficial Ownership Information Reporting Rule and Beneficial Ownership Information Access and Safeguards Rule.