Stock Market and Economic Update August 21, 2011

August 21, 2011 — Sam H. Fawaz

The past week hasn’t been particularly kind in the stock markets as we saw little follow-through on the previous week’s rally. My upside target of 1230-1260 in the S&P 500 index was not even approached before selling resumed at around 1208.
 
A few economic reports from last week have me a bit more concerned about the possibility of a recession within the next twelve months.  Although the economic leading indicators that I’ve come to rely on from the Economic Cycle Research Institute turned up again this past week, the only components to rise were financial ones, namely the money supply (with the stock market selling being a contributing factor) and the steep yield curve (ultralow interest rates on short duration debt versus higher rates on longer duration debt made possible by the Federal Reserve’s low interest rate policy). Without these two components, the index would have been down 0.5%, which is down three of the last four months.  Weekly unemployment claims came in at 408,000 whereas they were starting to trend below 400,000 in the last few weeks.
 
So the volatility in the market right now is at least partially attributable to concerns about whether a recession is on the horizon or not. If one is not, then the market is undervalued. If one is, then the market is overvalued. So far, the weight of evidence of a recession is still inconclusive, but it appears that institutional buyers are starting to “discount” that possibility as they demonstrate through selling in the markets.  The research I read is split about 50/50 about whether a recession is coming, with convincing cases made on both sides.  My feeling is that we have a bit further to go on the downside if economic factors or confidence measures don’t start pointing up real soon.
 
Accordingly, I am becoming increasingly concerned about the behavior of the markets and the economic numbers coming out lately since they haven’t been particularly encouraging. Accordingly, this past week I increased my clients’ hedges and continued to slightly reduce exposure to equities just to be on the safe side. 
 
This week will be critical since the Federal Reserve Chairman (Ben Bernanke) will be speaking on Friday and will reveal any further measures they may take to ease recession concerns and restore confidence to the markets.  More information about how the Eurozone will handle its debt crisis should help calm the markets.  But based on the market action on Thursday and Friday, it seems that many institutional and retail investors are not waiting to hear what the Chairman has to say or what solution the Eurozone might propose to avoid a deepening debt crisis.  They have therefore been selling and may continue doing so into this week.
 
I will continue to monitor the markets day to day and make further adjustments to portfolios and increase hedges as conditions warrant. Since the market is heavily oversold, we should expect some level of a bounce this week, if only for folks to prepare for any surprise announcement the Federal Reserve Chairman might offer to help propel markets higher.

Bottom line, it’s too early to reach conclusions about whether or not the April high was an important top in the market. If it was, it was unlike any market top of the past 50 years, with both the LEI and market breadth still hitting new highs after the top. When panic selling spreads across the board – good quality companies go down along with the overvalued speculative stocks.  I can say that barring some type of financial Armageddon, I believe the downside valuation risk in this market is far less than in 2007-08. 

My major equity allocation decision is to give this market more time before making any major adjustments. What is needed –more than anything else– is stability and confidence. Only time and stability can calm the emotional extremes and fears, which still come out of the woodwork on a daily basis. But as I’ve said, if the retest (of the S&P 500 index lows of 1100) is able to hold above the lows of last week, then it could provide a strong market base if evidence of a recession does not increase in coming weeks.

Again, please do not take this message as advice to buy or sell any securities; please consult with your investment advisor (or us!) This message is not intended to forecast what will happen in the market since no one (including me) can do that. My objective is to share what I’ve been hearing, reading and researching, the end result of which is one of cautious optimism.
 
Please don’t hesitate to contact me if you need any help with your personal financial situation or investments.  I welcome your feedback and questions always.

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Why I Don’t Trust This Rally

August 15, 2011 — Sam H. Fawaz

We finally strung together three up days in a row in the stock markets today and that’s a good thing. Volatility is ratcheting down and folks are stepping in to scoop up bargains.  Unfortunately, for the first time since we bottomed back in March 2009, I don’t trust this rally and believe that we are headed back to test last week’s low of 1,101 on the S&P 500 index in the short term.  If the market doesn’t hold at that level, our next stop is likely 1060. Let me explain why this rally has a lot to prove before I believe that this correction is over:
 
1.  Other than relieving an oversold condition, not much has changed fundamentally between last week and today. Uncertainties are abound about the possibility of a recession starting or already started (which I don’t believe), how we’re going to deal with raging federal deficits, and the Eurozone debt crisis. A meeting between German and French officials tomorrow will shed some light on how they will deal with the debt crisis in Europe.
2.  The three day rally that began last Thursday has occurred on light volume, reflecting very little institutional participation.  Institutions often wait for retail investors to bid up the market after a severe selloff to set it up for more selling.  The selling has been coming in on very heavy volume while buying is coming in on light volume, a bearish sign.
3.  Consumer confidence, as measured by the University of Michigan survey released last Friday, was at a record low.  These levels have not been seen since the great recession (but do reflect the recent anxiety over the recent U.S. debt ceiling debacle and stock market sell-off last week).
4.  The main stock market sentiment indicators showed an increase in bullish sentiment last week. This is considered a “contra” indicator. After the recent stock market beating, there seems to be more complacency than fear in the markets. Folks are still in “buy the dip” mode. They might have buyer’s remorse if they’re short-term holders.
5.  The kind of technical damage to the markets caused by last week’s sell-off takes weeks, if not months, to repair.  After-shocks and re-tests of lows are the norm after such a severe sell-off.
The positives that point to a better economic environment and stock market include a better than expected weekly jobs report last week, improved July retail sales figures, good corporate insider buying, and more big corporate mergers announced today.
 
While I believe that the markets could bounce for a few more days, unfortunately, I feel that we are headed lower over the short-term. The S&P 500 index closed at 1204 today, and we may even climb as high as 1240-1260 before the markets “roll over”.  That is 3-4% from here, and it’s only an educated guess on my part since 1250 is approximately where the markets fell apart.  I’d like to take advantage of this short-term rise, but only if more volume confirms the move higher.  Otherwise, it’s easy to get whip-sawed in this low volume environment. 
 
This is why I continue to hold onto hedges and have refrained from putting available cash to work at this point.  I’ve continued to selectively cull positions and rebalance accounts to take advantage of the recent strength in the market. Nonetheless, we remain heavily weighted long in the equity and bond markets despite our cash and hedges.  If the S&P 500 index closes above 1290 convincingly, then I’ll re-evaluate my stance, consider pulling in my hedges and invest more cash.
 
But aren’t we investing for the long term? Why should short-term market dynamics control our investing decisions? While we do invest for the long term, it’s prudent to protect capital when the market is in a well-defined downtrend, especially when a near-term recession is a possibility, albeit a remote one.  Markets around the world are factoring in a global slowdown, and the U.S. won’t be immune.  Sure central banks may pull a rabbit out of their hat and stimulate the economy and markets once again, and I’ll be ready for that.  But for right now, unless I see some institutional “power” behind this rally, I just don’t trust it.  As I’ve mentioned before, I expect near-term market weakness until sometime in October.
 
No part of this message should be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any securities, and you should not act on this without consultation with your financial planner or money manager (better yet, talk to us!)  My position will change if the facts change, so I am not married to this position. That could be tomorrow, next week or next month. I don’t have a crystal ball, so my prognostication should not be taken as true fact (I could change my mind or worse, be wrong!)
 
Please let me know if you have any questions, concerns or feedback. I’d love to hear what you’re thinking.

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What’s Going on in the Markets-August 4, 2011

August 4, 2011 — Sam H. Fawaz

I probably don’t have to re-hash for you what’s been happening in the markets over the past couple of weeks as we’ve suffered what feels like the worst decline in the markets since they recovered in March 2009. The media does a pretty good job of instilling fear and I don’t expect the newspaper headlines to be happy ones on Friday morning. So let me give you my take on what’s going on and what I’m expecting.

Coming into this week amid the uncertainty over the passage of the debt ceiling vote in Congress, we had already endured about seven days of selling in the markets that seemed to pick up steam on Monday. The euphoria on Sunday evening over a possible debt deal in Congress was over within minutes of Monday’s market open and the selling began in earnest. So what gives? If a deal was such a good thing, why did the markets sell off on the news and passage of the increase in the debt ceiling?

In reality, the significance of the debt ceiling vote was elevated by the media, and while it added to market anxiety, many were actually more concerned about the signs of slowing in the economy. The usual concerns over jobs, housing, spending and overall goverment regulation of business have been weighing on consumer and business confidence for a few months now. Downward revisions in the gross domestic product for past and future quarters haven’t help encourage companies to hire or spend on capital improvements. Once the focus was taken off the debt ceiling issue, the economic concerns were brought to the forefront.

Another Recession Already?
You’ll hear talk in the media about whether we’re heading for another recession this year, whether we’re already in a new recession or whether the recession never ended. As for the last two assertions, the economic statistics simply don’t support the notion that we’re in a recession. As for whether we’re heading for another recession in 2011, so far, the economic statistics don’t support that either (though some unfortunate members of the unemployed or those under water on their mortgages may not agree.) While we’re seeing a slowing of economic output, hiring and capital spending, we have not seen any evidence of negative or no growth. Could we see one in 2012? Anything’s possible, but no one can predict this; not even me.

My take on all this is that while the recovery has been anemic, I don’t believe that we’re heading for a recession this year. While I’m no economist, the Japan earthquake, Eurorpean and U.S. debt “crises” and other weather related factors have really thrown 2011 for an economic loop. When you consider that fiscal stimulus takes 18-24 months to make it out of the capital markets into capital spending, we may just be experiencing a temporary slowdown in growth.

As an example, commercial traders of lumber futures deny a slowdown in demand, and that usually doesn’t happen if a recession is around the corner. Corporate profits are at record highs (thanks to a dearth of hiring) and many are raising estimates of earnings for the next quarter. Credit is cheap and readily available, and companies are buying other companies and their own stock back at record levels. With the Federal Reserve on the side of the consumer, you’d be hard pressed to bed against them. So I believe that reports of an impending recession may be a bit exaggerated.

So What Happened Today?
To be honest, I came into my office today fully expecting an “up” day in the markets since we finally “bounced” yesterday. All technical indicators pointed to a severely “oversold” market (a market where selling is exhausted in the short term) that we were ready to bounce higher. In fact, I had prepared and positioned for it.

But overnight, Japan intervened in the capital markets to stem the seemingly unstoppable rise in the value of the Yen (which adversely affects their exports) right after Switzerland lowered their short-term interest rates to near zero yesterday (just like the United States). In addition, brewing concerns over Italian and other European debt problems were not helped by ambiguous comments made by the head of the European Central Bank on how they are dealing with their crisis. Suffice to say, with a 400,000 print in the weekly unemployment figures reported today, we were down from the start and never looked back.

As so often happens on a day when everyone starts to sell, the selling feeds upon itself and others join in. While we didn’t see any moments of panic, the selling was steady and relentless all day. What started out with gold and silver making highs in the morning ended the day with both at their lows.

Why? I believe it was because of forced selling and margin calls. When margin account balances need to be replenished, the most liquid of assets (like gold, silver and even Apple Stock) get sold off to cover the margin. So while there is nothing fundamentally wrong with many stocks and funds, they get sold along with everything else to raise cash for margin calls and for mutual fund shareholder requests for liquidations.

So Now What?
Despite the intense selling over the past couple of weeks, the S&P 500 is only 10% from the highs this year, just right in correction territory. You may recall that the markets corrected 16% last summer, and that’s never fun. Many then were predicting a double-dip recession around the corner and a return to a bear market. Neither of those happened; instead we moved up 30% to new highs in May. While past performance is no guaranteee of future results, I still don’t see any impending techincal signs that we are entering into a new bear market phase right now. If I did, I would be taking appropriate action. However, though this could change on any particular day, I believe this bull market still deserves the benefit of the doubt.

At the moment, as alluded to above, the market is extremely oversold and should bounce over the next few days. After that, it’s anyone’s guess what might happen, but I suspect that the remainder of the summer and into early fall will remain choppy, volatile and “lean” with a negative bias. While I expect more short-term downside, I don’t think panic selling is the right response now. While you may choose to cull some profitable positions, it may already be too late to sell most. As always, you should check with your financial advisor (or us) about the right course of action for your portfolio. Remember, no one can guess how high or low a market can go.

To be certain, I was not expecting the kind of response that we got from the market this week. But I could not foresee the actions and responses from central banks around the world either.

For our client portfolios, I’ve been keeping a good portion of investable funds in cash and had liquidated some positions ahead of this decline. Of course, I wish I had liquidated more, but alas, my crystal ball is still in the shop.

I’ve been wanting to put on some hedges via inverse ETF’s for some time now. But those funds are “too hot to handle” right now and with an oversold bounce overdue, they would only compound losses in the short term. Other hedges are also way too expensive right now as volatility is at 52 week highs. I usually like to wait for a bounce in the markets before putting on hedges, but the only bounce we got yesterday was a bit tepid and shorter than expected. I will look to put them on as soon as market conditions allow. If the selling continues in the short term as I expect, then I’ll look to lighten up other positions as appropriate as well.

On Friday, we’ll get the monthly jobs report for July, which is widely expected to be lousy and show a continued unemployment rate of 9.2%. Any selling that transpires in the morning will more likely result from margin call covering rather than a reaction the jobs number (or if we get more bad news overnight from Europe).

Please be sure to contact me if you have any questions or concerns about the markets. I’ll be happy to help, but please don’t take action based on the contents of this message. It’s not my intent to render actionable financial advice to anyone pursuant to investment advisor restrictions and regulations.

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What’s Going on in the Markets – Tuesday June 21 2011

June 22, 2011 — Sam H. Fawaz

As communicated in my post last week, the stock markets were overdue for a rally.  And as expected, we rallied for the fourth day in a row today.  What distinguishes today’s rally from the previous three days is that the market has now switched from a downtrend to a new confirmed uptrend.  The real tell was the amount of volume traded on the stock exchanges and it was much higher today than the previous three rally days.  Thus, today we got what is known as a “follow-through day” in the markets. 

Expectations of a Greek bailout, an upcoming great 2nd quarter corporate earnings season (beginning in July) along with lower oil prices have helped improve investor and institutional optimism.  Institutions are also facing quarter-end, so they help buy up the market in the last couple of weeks to make their results look better.  As you know, we closed out our hedges (profitably) in the middle of last week in anticipation of this rally.

With any follow-through day, there are risks that the rally fails and the downtrend reasserts itself.  This is why a follow-through day comes on the fourth day of a rally attempt and no earlier.  Unfortunately, it sometimes takes two or more failed attempts before the rally succeeds. In fact, a failed follow-through day occurred most recently on May 31 when institutions sold into the rally the day after the uptrend was confirmed.  So while all signals point to a rally in the short term (my guess is that it lasts perhaps 1-3 weeks), we have to be cognizant that markets are on edge these days as we digest the news of a global economic slowdown, the prospect of more European debt woes and the prospect of a delayed extension of the national debt ceiling in Congress. 
A new rally is most vulnerable in its first few days and, once those have passed, the chances of succeeding increase dramatically.  In any case, volatility and low volume, as I’ve mentioned before, are characteristics of summertime stock markets.  So markets are more easily pushed around in this environment.

What this means for client portfolios is that new investments of cash are safer during a confirmed uptrend, which is what I started doing today.  But in the current environment, just like with hedges, new investments could turn into short-term trades if the market decides not to cooperate.  So even though we are investing for the long term with the majority of the portfolios, a small percentage of each portfolio is invested on a short-term (or very short-term) basis to take advantage of market swings and volatility.  This could be hours, days or weeks depending on how the markets behave.  In my opinion, proper diversification of portfolios includes both long-term investments and short-term ones as well.

I hope this helps you understand a little better how I’m approaching this market and trying to help manage portfolios.  As usual, please don’t rely on my prognostications as a basis for any investment or trading decisions; consult with your advisor or us if you have any questions about how to invest in these markets.  My crystal ball remains in the shop, so I’m no better at predicting the future than the next fortune teller.  What I do best is act as your risk manager and thereby mitigate the risk of bad things happening to portfolios while enhancing portfolio returns.

I welcome your questions and appreciate your referrals.  Happy first day of summer 2011!

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What’s Going on in the Markets – Thursday June 16 2011

June 22, 2011 — Sam H. Fawaz

The past several weeks in the stock markets have been quite trying for anyone paying close attention to what’s been going on.  As of today (Thursday June 16), we are working on a possible seventh down week in a row in the stock markets.  Since 1933, this has only happened three times, while the markets being down six weeks in a row has occurred seventeen times. Tomorrow is our last hope of an upside rally that takes the markets positive for the week and avoids making history by being the fourth time we see seven down weeks in a row.  Despite how bad this may sound, the selling has not been so intense to be considered anything more than a normal stock market correction within this bull market.
 
Why are the markets so intent on going down? Well, as I described in my last couple of writings, the end of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve (buying treasury bonds), an apparent slowing in the economy, continued debt woes in Europe (Greece is in the forefront this week), and the failure of Congress to pass an increase in the debt ceiling.  Employers remain reluctant to hire new employees due to uncertainty surrounding health care and other financial legislation (e.g., the burdensome health care costs involved with hiring a 25th employee).
 
Of course, with several weeks down in the markets, every doom and gloom scenario and “Johnnie’s come lately” hawking another “End of the World” book come out of the woodwork, make the talk and news show circuits and call for Dow 5,000 and S&P 300 (they’re around 12,000 and 1,268 right now.)  Just yesterday, noted economist and academician Robert Shiller declared that we are definitely headed for another recession (of course we are, but it won’t be this year and probably not next year!)  Am I concerned that the economy may be slowing? Of course I am.  But to date the weight of evidence is that we are slowing, not stopping or switching to negative growth.  We endured a similar “soft patch” last spring and summer and the markets have made new highs since then. I continue to believe (guess?) that the disruption in the global supply chain caused by the Japan earthquake tragedy has thrown a wrench into the worldwide economic recovery story and that the second half of 2011 will see growth re-accelerate. Those who state otherwise are also guessing.
 
I stated in my last “What’s Going on with the Markets” newsletter that I believe that we are probably headed to test the 1,257 (the Japan earthquake low) or 1,250 level on the S&P 500 stock market index. Today we hit 1,258 before settling up at around 1,268. Was today the bottom? I really don’t know (neither does anyone else).  But all the signs and indicators that I pay attention to would indicate that today’s successful test of the Japan low might be sufficient to give the market a bit of a lift, at least temporarily.
 
So what do we do in the case of a market correction like this? If the decline is more than modest or is expected to be more than modest, we hedge client portfolios with leveraged inverse funds or options. This helps us keep our investment positions in place while hedging the risk a bit.  While this doesn’t totally protect the downside, it does allow us to mitigate (and perhaps profit) from the downside in the markets.  When we hedge portfolios in this manner, we take a portion or all available cash and buy the inverse funds on a temporary or “rental” basis. We may be in these inverse funds for a few hours, days, weeks or months depending on the market action. 
 
By definition, a hedge may be a drag on overall returns while it is on, but it can also be profitable if you manage it properly and the markets are not too volatile.  When market indexes give signals that the downturn may be over and a new uptrend may be afoot, we take off the hedges to fully benefit from the uptrend.  While no one person (including me) can perfectly time the market top or bottom, you can learn the rhythms, signals and technical indicators of the market and protect portfolios.  While some may be concerned with trading costs of hedging a portfolio, keep in mind that commissions are relatively cheap (and quite cheap compared to the protection the hedges provide).
 
I expect that we will bounce back a bit tomorrow and perhaps rally over the next week or so because the market is quite a bit “oversold”.  As a result, I removed our portfolio hedges today (at a small profit) to take advantage of such a rally.  Summer markets tend to be low volume and volatile, so I’m not sure that any rally will be sustained throughout the summer, but I don’t see us selling off in a big way.  When a new confirmed market uptrend asserts itself, I will be the first to deploy new cash into the market.  I will however reiterate, as I have in the past, that no one should trade or invest based on my prognostications. While I continue to be positive on the market, you should consult with your own advisor (or us) before making any investment decisions based on my comments. 
 
We are happy to speak with anyone who might be interested in discussing financial planning or money management.  As usual, there is no obligation, pressure or cost for speaking with us. If you have any questions about this market update or any other financial matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us.

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What’s Going on in the Markets – Monday June 6 2011

June 22, 2011 — Sam H. Fawaz

Today marked the fourth day in a row of intense selling in the stock markets immediately after the markets gave a technical “buy” signal last Tuesday.  Last Wednesday, the markets staged a hard reversal to the downside and have not yet recovered.

Economic indicators of late have been coming in worse than expected with recent slowdowns in manufacturing and hiring and higher unemployment claims. Last Friday the labor department reported the creation of 54,000 new jobs during the month of May while analysts were projecting 150,000-175,000 new jobs created.  Needless to say, the markets were disappointed and continued the sell-off that started last Wednesday.

While there are many possible reasons discussed for the market’s indigestion (e.g., the end of the Federal Reserve’s bond buying program in June, the earthquake in Japan, continued sovereign debt woes in Europe, lack of agreement in Congress on extending the debt ceiling, lower consumer confidence, high joblessness), no one really knows the exact reason why the markets sell off on any particular day.  As I indicated in a previous message, institutions take profits periodically on positions to help reset prices and make the market more enticing for those standing on the sidelines waiting to buy at lower prices.  While the institutions (who make up the bulk of buying and selling in the markets) may view slower growth as reasons to sell, they have not been selling with wild abandon by any means.  So one could say that the correction has been somewhat orderly (but any declines in prices are never pleasant).  In other words, institutions don’t appear to be positioning for a bear market or a recession in the near future.

My intermediate and longer term indicators are still bullish even as this 5% correction (so far) may get to 10%.  As a reference point, the markets corrected 13-15% last summer and that set us up for much higher stock prices.  While the gains we’ve seen so far will likely not be repeated, I still expect a respectable finish for the year with a positive return in the stock markets (though my crystal ball is in the shop, so please don’t make any investing decisions based on this prognostication.) The summer months tend to be volatile and of low volume, so market swings are frequent and sometimes abrupt.  I believe that corporate earnings (which ultimately drive stock prices) will continue to surprise to the upside (if they’re not hiring, then costs stay low).  The effects of the tragic Japanese earthquake, which caused a hiccup in the markets this quarter, will begin to wane and offer opportunities for companies to help with the rebuilding, and thereby also help with future corporate earnings.  Finally, the costs of oil and other commodities overall have come down and will ultimately reduce inflation pressure.

How should you handle this correction? For most, doing nothing may be the right answer and simply “ride out” this correction.  For my clients, I have once again begun hedging portfolios in case the correction proves to be more protracted than expected.  I have already become more defensive by reducing more risky types of positions and adding more defensive ones.  But in an overall stock market correction, ultimately 3 out of 4 stocks will follow the market down, so there’s no good place to really hide. As this correction plays out and support wanes for certain sectors, I will slowly scale out of those positions and wait to buy them back at lower prices as appropriate.  If necessary, I will add more to our hedges to reduce our overall equity exposure and risk.  New positions are on hold until a new uptrend is confirmed.  This is by no means a recommendation of what you should do with your portfolio if you’re a “do-it-yourselfer”, so please consult with a professional (like me!) if you’d like to protect your portfolio or figure out what you should do.  Every investor and his or her goals are different, and that’s how we handle each client–individually.  In any case, the correction may take us down to the 1250 level in the S&P 500 index (the March 2011 Japan earthquake low) or down to 1200 (less likely in my opinion).

With four down days in a row, we might see a bit of a relief rally tomorrow (Tuesday), but I’m not expecting any type of big reversal.  With the amount of selling that has been going on lately, I just don’t expect the markets to turn around that quickly and “rip” to the upside without a catalyst. Ultimately, corrections are healthy for the markets and they will recover in time. It’s just never fun to watch the markets (and our portfolios) go down, but if you’re a long term investor, this is merely a bump in the road.  If I see that circumstances have changed and my technical indicators flash warning signs, you can bet that you’ll hear from me again and I’ll be taking appropriate action.

I welcome your questions and feedback. If you’re not yet a client, keep in mind that your first consultation is complimentary and comes with no pressure and no obligation whatsoever.  As a fee-only advisor, I put your interests first and work as your fiduciary. Not all advisors can make this statement.

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How to Choose a Financial Advisor

March 31, 2011 — Sam H. Fawaz

You know the importance of saving for retirement, but do you have the time and know-how to accomplish your financial goals? In an increasingly busy world, it’s possible that keeping close tabs on your investment accounts isn’t exactly realistic.

Seeking the help of financial professionals has become more important to investors according to a recent survey conducted by Harris Interactive on behalf of TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation, as nearly one quarter (22 percent) of investors report relying more on a professional investment advisor following the recession.

Even if you have a good handle on your investments, you may find that hiring a financial advisor — who can put the time and energy into making sure you and your family plan for a secure financial future — may be a worthwhile investment. By hiring an independent registered investment advisor — commonly referred to as an RIA — you can make sure your investments are managed on a full-time basis by a professional advisor, while still having control.

Of course deciding to put someone in charge of your hard-earned money is not a process to be taken lightly.  Our preferred custodian, TD Ameritrade,  and we offer these tips to consider as you choose an independent financial advisor or RIA:

* Just as it is wise to do research on the background of anyone who would take care of your children, you should investigate the person or company you enlist to handle your money. The Securities and Exchange Commission, Inc. (www.adviserinfo.sec.gov), Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (www.finra.org), Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards (www.cfp.net), National Association of Personal Financial Advisors (findanadvisor.napfa.org/Home.aspx), and Financial Planning Association (http://www.fpanet.org/PlannerSearch/PlannerSearch.aspx), as well as your own state securities agency all collect background information on financial professionals that can be accessed through their websites. Use these sites to make sure the advisors you are considering haven’t faced disciplinary action for dishonest practices and are in good standing with regulators.

* Know the difference between working with an independent RIA and a stock broker, or other financial services provider. Independent RIAs, for example, are bound by law to act in their clients’ best interest. Brokers, on the other hand, are held to a “suitability” standard, meaning the advice they give must be suitable to that client’s situation. If you are looking for objective, comprehensive money management, you might want to consider an RIA.

* While RIAs are required by law to act in your best interest, there are other ways that you can ensure they will do what is best for you. One is to ask how they are compensated. Fee-only compensation generally minimizes conflicts of interest and means that your advisor is paid only for the management services and advice he or she offers, and only by you, not by investment product providers. When an advisor is paid on commission, there’s a greater chance he or she will make choices with your money that serve not only your interests, but their own as well. That’s not to say that advisors do not work fairly under this model, but potential conflicts of interest are something to consider as you choose an advisor.

* When looking for referrals from friends or relatives, the most valuable referrals may come from those in similar situations. It’s also a good idea to ask potential advisors if they specialize in working with certain types of clients and choose one that fits your unique profile.

* A third party custodian should also handle all your deposits, to ensure checks and balances. An independent custodian like TD Ameritrade can help ensure the safety and security of your assets, and will provide you with a clear, concise statement every month. A duplicate monthly statement is also sent to your advisor. Make sure this is also a legitimate and upstanding business.

Working with a trusted independent fee-only RIA can help you realize your financial goals, while allowing you to spend less time worrying about and managing your investments. If you need help and would like to talk to a fee-only planner with no sales pressure, cost  or obligation, please visit our web site at http://www.ydfs.com or call YDream Financial Services, Inc. at (615) 395-2010 or (734) 447-5305.

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What’s Going on With the Markets-March 10, 2011

March 10, 2011 — Sam H. Fawaz

Since the beginning of last September, the stock markets have enjoyed a nearly uninterrupted bull uptrend which has been unprecedented in market history.  Fueled by improving economics and Federal Reserve actions, the uptrend has withstood many geopolitical, fiscal and news driven setbacks.  But today the political unrest in the Middle East, issues with Spanish debt repayment and a higher than expected weekly first-time unemployment claim number (497,000) were the 1-2-3 punch that the markets could not recover from and therefore we suffered a 1.5-2.5% setback.  Be it stocks, gold, silver or oil today, they were all down today.

Normally, up-trending bull markets such as the one we’re in take rest periods, or “corrections” as they’re called, every couple of months while individuals and institutions take profits on stock positions and reset stock prices back to normal levels. Corrections (usually 10-20% of an index value such as the S&P 500) are healthy for the market and while uncomfortable if you watch them unfold from day to day, allow the markets to set up for the next leg up.  Two years to the day yesterday into this bull run have seen us move up about 100% from the March 9, 2009 lows on the S&P 500 index. Without a doubt, this has been an incredible run and I hope you’ve been participating.

As I’ve discussed with clients and prospects recently, a correction in the market has been long overdue and anticipated.  While today was the first big down day where we really tested key levels in the indexes, there have been several signs of exhaustion in the market. Despite this, I cannot say with certainty whether we’ve definitively entered into a correction period (technically we have, but it needs to be confirmed with follow-through on Friday and next week.)  If the bulls get their act together tomorrow and “rescue” the market by pushing it back up through heavy volume buying, then this decline may be “all she wrote.”  If not, we could head down to test the 1275 level of the S&P 500 index (we closed at 1295 today).  A failure to hold the 1275 level means that large institutions have decided to continue selling and a drop to 1240 may need to exhaust sellers.

With the “Day of Rage” demonstrations scheduled for Friday in Saudi Arabia, rocketing oil prices and sovereign debt issues, the odds of avoiding a deeper correction are not very high.  Besides, this correction is long overdue and may occur regardless of how peacefully the Middle East situation is resolved or even if oil prices come back down to earth.

What do I think? As I’ve mentioned before, the Federal Reserve has made investing in anything but the stock market earn near zero returns. That is, the government wants us to buy equities, push the stock market (and IRA’s and 401(k)’s) higher, to make us feel richer and more confident and therefore spend more.  Spending more creates demand which in turn creates jobs and so on.  So I believe that the gentle (if somewhat invisible) hand will come in to help support the market and avoid a protracted decline that might scare off the latest entrants into the market. While my crystal ball is still in the shop, I believe that a decline beyond 1275 in the S&P 500 (another 1.5%) is a stretch.  While that would make it a very shallow correction, it may be enough to breathe new life into the stock market and help resume the uptrend.

So what should you do now in light of a possible correction?  Basically, you shouldn’t do much if anything since nothing is confirmed.  If you’re investing on your own, trying to time your “in’s and out’s” of the markets is nearly impossible and not recommended unless you’re an experienced trader.  If you have a profitable position and worry about it turning into a loss, you may decide to sell a portion or all of it.  More savvy investors may be able to hedge their positions with options or inverse ETF’s if the decline proves to be protracted.  From our end for our clients, I’m watching the market technical levels on a daily basis like a hawk and already have begun to harvest some profits and protect some positions. If a protracted downturn does materialize, I may also hedge portfolios with inverse ETF’s and selectively liquidate partial positions.  But we’re not there yet and I’m not making any recommendations.  And by no means do I think we’re entering another bear market (by definition, a bear market begins when we decline 20% from the last peak in a major index).  Non-clients should consult their current advisor (or me) if you’re unsure what to do in the event of a protracted decline and should not treat this as a recommendation to buy or sell anything (see disclaimer below).

Last year we declined nearly 15% from May through August amid sovereign debt worries and economic uncertainty and then proceeded to push up nearly 25% over the next six months. I still believe that we will end 2011 with double-digit gains in the markets as this economy matures from recovery to expansion.  All economic indicators point positively and last month we even added nearly 200,000 new jobs.  We may even see housing perk up a bit later this year.  Without a doubt, sustained oil prices above $125 per barrel and $4 gasoline for an extended period (6 months or more), will put a crimp into the expansion, but I don’t believe we’re heading for a long term spike in oil prices.  Let’s just say that the oil producing countries learned what supply constraints and speculation did to oil demand the last time oil spiked to $145 a barrel. More electric and hybrid cars is just one example of how we are learning to live with less demand for foreign oil.

I hope this message helps alleviate any anxiety over the recent down days in the market.  Remember that the media loves good negative stories to help sell newspapers and advertising. Avoid the noise and try to keep your sanity during the days when it seems like there’s always something bad going on in the world.  Middle Eastern concerns have been a worry for decades, if not centuries now, and likely won’t be resolved during our lifetimes.  Like every other world incident, the markets get back to normal and we get through them.

Enjoy the upcoming weekend and don’t hesitate to contact me if I can be of any help.  If you’re not a client, your consultation with me is complimentary, no-pressure and with no obligation.  I’d love to talk to you whether or not you’re considering hiring a financial planner or money manager.

Sam H. Fawaz CFP®, CPA is president of YDream Financial Services, Inc., a registered investment advisor. Sam is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP®), Certified Public Accountant and registered member of the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors (NAPFA) fee-only financial planner group.  Sam has expertise in many areas of personal finance and wealth management and has always been fascinated with the role of money in society.  Helping others prosper and succeed has been Sam’s mission since he decided to dedicate his life to financial planning.  He specializes in entrepreneurs, professionals, company executives and their families.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable, but we cannot attest to its accuracy.  Investment recommendations may change and readers are urged to check with their investment advisors before making any investment decisions.  Opinions expressed in this writing by Sam H. Fawaz are his own, may change without prior notice and should not be relied upon as a basis for making investment or planning decisions.  No person can accurately forecast or call a market top or bottom, so forward looking statements should be discounted and not relied upon as a basis for investing or trading decisions. This message was authored by Sam H. Fawaz CPA, CFP and is provided by YDream Financial Services, Inc.

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Highlights & Summary of the Tax Relief Act of 2010

December 17, 2010 — Sam H. Fawaz

I promised to keep you updated on the tax bill that was before congress which essentially extends the Bush era tax cuts for two years. Here are the highlights and full summary with more details to come in the next couple of weeks:

On Thursday December 16, 2010, Congress passed the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Re-authorization and Job Creation Act of 2010. President Obama just signed the bill this afternoon Friday December 17, 2010.  This legislation, negotiated by the White House and select members of the House and Senate, provides for a short-term extension of Bush era tax cuts made in 2001.  It also addresses the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) and Estate, Gift and Generation-skipping Transfer taxes.

The following summary will provide you with key information and highlights from the bill with help from the Financial Planning Association. If you have any additional questions, please do not hesitate to contact me at (734) 447-5305 or at hf@ydfs.com. I hope that you find this summary useful for your personal and business affairs.

HIGHLIGHTS

Two-year extension of all current tax rates through 2012

  • Rates remain 10, 25, 28, 33, and 35 percent
  • 2-year extension of reduced 0 or 15 percent rate for capital gains & dividends
  • 2-year continued repeal of Personal Exemption Phase-out (PEP) & itemized deduction limitation

Temporary modification of Estate, Gift and Generation-Skipping Transfer Tax for 2010, 2011, 2012

  • Reunification of estate and gift taxes
  • 35% top rate and $5 million exemption for estate, gift and GST
  • Alternatively, taxpayer may choose modified carryover basis for 2010
  • Unused exemption may be transferred to spouse
  • Exemption amount indexed for inflation in 2012

AMT Patch for 2010 and 2011

  • Increases the exemption amounts for 2010 to $47,450 ($72,450 married filing jointly) and for 2011 to $48,450 ($74,450 married filing jointly).  It also allows the nonrefundable personal credits against the AMT.

Extension of “tax extenders” for 2010 and 2011, including:

  • Tax-free distributions of up to $100,000 from individual retirement plans for charitable purposes
  • Above-the-line deduction for qualified tuition and related expenses
  • Expanded Coverdell Accounts and definition of education expenses
  • American Opportunity Tax Credit for tuition expenses of up to $2,500
  • Deduction of state and local general sales taxes
  • 30-percent credit for energy-efficiency improvements to the home
  • Exclusion of qualified small business capital gains

Temporary Employee Payroll Tax Cut

  • Provides a payroll tax holiday during 2011 of two percentage points. Employees will pay only 4.2 percent on wages and self-employed individuals will pay only 10.4 percent on self-employment income up to $106,800.

FULL SUMMARY

Reductions in Individual Income Tax Rates through 2012

  • Income brackets remain 10, 25, 28, 33, and 35 percent
  • Capital gains and dividend rates remain at 0 or 15 percent
  • Repeal of the Personal Exemption Phase-out (PEP)
  • Repeal of the itemized deduction limitation (Pease limitation)
  • Marriage penalty relief
  • Expanded dependent care credit
  • Child Tax Credit
  • Earned income tax credit

Education Incentives Extended Through 2012

  • Expanded Coverdell accounts and definition of education expenses
  • Expanded exclusion for employer-provided educational assistance of up to $5,250
  • Expanded student loan interest deduction
  • Exclusion from income of amounts received under certain scholarship programs
  • American Opportunity Tax Credit of up to $2,500 for tuition expenses

Extension of Certain Expiring Provision for Individuals through 2011

  • Above-the-line deduction for qualified tuition and related expenses
  • Tax-free distributions of up to $100,000 from individual retirement plans for charitable purposes.  Donors may treat donations made in January 2001 as if made in 2010.
  • 30-percent credit for energy-efficiency improvements to the home
  • Deduction of state and local general sales taxes
  • Parity for employer-provided mass transit benefits
  • Contributions of capital gain real property for conservation purposes
  • Deductibility of mortgage insurance premiums for qualified residence
  • Estate tax look-through of certain Regulated Investment Company (RIC) stock held by nonresidents for decedents dying before January 1, 2012
  • Above-the-line deduction for certain expenses of elementary and secondary school teachers

Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) Relief

  • The legislation increases the exemption amounts for 2010 to $47,450 (individuals) and $72,450 (married filing jointly) and for 2011 to $48,450 (individuals) and $74,450 (married filing jointly).  It also allows the nonrefundable personal credits against the AMT.

Temporary Estate Tax Relief and Modification of Gift and Generation-skipping Transfer Taxes

  • Higher exemption, lower rate. The legislation sets the exemption at $5 million per person and $10 million per couple and a top tax rate of 35 percent for the estate, gift, and generation skipping transfer taxes for two years, through 2012. The exemption amount is indexed beginning in 2012. The proposal is effective January 1, 2010, but allows an election to choose no estate tax and modified carryover basis for estates arising on or after January 1, 2010 and before January 1, 2011. The proposal sets a $5 million generation-skipping transfer tax exemption and zero percent rate for the 2010 year.
  • Portability of unused exemption. Under current law, couples have to do complicated estate planning to claim their entire exemption.  The proposal allows the executor of a deceased spouse’s estate to transfer any unused exemption to the surviving spouse without such planning. The proposal is effective for estates of decedents dying after December 31, 2010.
  • Reunification of estate and gift taxes. Prior to the 2001 tax cuts, the estate and gift taxes were unified, creating a single graduated rate schedule for both. That single lifetime exemption could be used for gifts and/or bequests. The proposal reunifies the estate and gift taxes. The proposal is effective for gifts made after December 31, 2010.
  • As noted above. the look-through of RIC stock held by non-resident decedents is extended through 2011

Temporary Extension of Investment Incentives

  • Extension of bonus depreciation for taxable years 2011 and 2012
  • Small Business Expensing: increase in the maximum amount and phase-out threshold under section 179. Sets the maximum amount and phase-out threshold for taxable years 2012 at $125,000 and $500,000 respectively, indexed for inflation.  (Previously-passed legislation raised the 2010 and 2011 max amount and phase-out at $500,000 and $2,000,000 respectively.)

Extension of Certain Expiring Provisions for Businesses through 2011

  • Enhanced charitable deduction for corporate contributions of computer equipment for educational purposes
  • Enhanced charitable deduction for contributions of food inventory
  • Enhanced charitable deduction for contributions of book inventories to public schools
  • Special rule for S corporations making charitable contributions of property
  • 15-year straight-line cost recovery for qualified leasehold improvements
  • Employer wage credit for activated military reservists
  • Tax benefits for certain real estate developments
  • Extension of expensing of environmental remediation costs
  • Treatment of interest-related dividends and short term capital gain dividends of Regulated Investment Companies (RICs)
  • Work opportunity tax credit (WOTC)
  • 100% Exclusion of qualified small business capital gains held for more than 5 years
  • Research credit
  • Qualified Zone Academy bonds

Extension of Unemployment Insurance

  • The unemployment insurance proposal provides a one-year re-authorization of federal UI benefits.

Temporary Employee Payroll Tax Cut

  • The legislation creates a payroll/self-employment tax holiday during 2011 of two percentage points. The employer’s share of the payroll tax remains unchanged.  This means employees will pay only 4.2 percent on wages and self-employed individuals will pay only 10.4 percent on self-employment income up to $106,800.  The social security trust fund is made whole by transfers from the general fund.

Please check out my January-February 2010 Money Magazine Portfolio Makeover-Can I retire Early? http://bit.ly/5aGwIO

Have a small business?  Don’t miss out on these business tax deductions http://bit.ly/a49I1K

6 Ways To Gift Money to Family http://bit.ly/aDG90W

Follow me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/TheMoneyGeek for relevant personal finance advice and tips on great deals.

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YDream Financial Services, Inc. is providing this information as a service to its subscribers. While this information deals with tax and legal issues, it does not constitute tax or legal advice and cannot be relied upon as such for avoidance of penalties in matters before the IRS. If you have specific questions related to this information, you are encouraged to consult us, a tax professional or an attorney who can investigate the particular circumstances of your situation.

Sources: U.S. Senate Committee on Finance; U.S. Congress Joint Committee on Taxation

Sam H. Fawaz CFP®, CPA is president of YDream Financial Services, Inc., a registered investment advisor. Sam is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP®), Certified Public Accountant and registered member of the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors (NAPFA) fee-only financial planner group.  Sam has expertise in many areas of personal finance and wealth management and has always been fascinated with the role of money in society.  Helping others prosper and succeed has been Sam’s mission since he decided to dedicate his life to financial planning.  He specializes in entrepreneurs, professionals, company executives and their families.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable, but we cannot attest to its accuracy.  Investment recommendations may change and readers are urged to check with their investment advisors before making any investment decisions.  Opinions expressed in this writing by Sam H. Fawaz are his own, may change without prior notice and should not be relied upon as a basis for making investment or planning decisions.  No person can accurately forecast or call a market top or bottom, so forward looking statements should be discounted and not relied upon as a basis for investing or trading decisions. This message was authored by Sam H. Fawaz CPA, CFP® and the Financial Planning Association(of which Sam is a member) and is provided by YDream Financial Services, Inc.

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Update on Extension of Bush Era Tax Cuts

December 7, 2010 — Sam H. Fawaz

I promised to update you on progress in changes to income tax legislation that affects all of us in 2011.  As you may recall, the Bush-era tax cuts were scheduled to expire after 2010, which essentially amounts to a tax increase if Congress didn’t act to extend them.

After the stock market close yesterday, President Obama, in a televised speech, announced a compromise with Republicans in Congress which, if passed into law, would amount to a much bigger fiscal package in 2011 than virtually anyone expected. In addition to a two-year extension of the Bush-era tax cuts, he added a one-year reduction in the payroll tax and a huge investment tax credit.  While the ultimate bill that gets passed may be different than detailed below, I wanted to get you some details right away.

I would expect that the proposal will be signed and turned into law in the next couple of weeks.  Among the highlights of the proposed bill are:

— A two year extension of tax cuts for all income levels.   The 15% rate on capital gains and dividend income would also be extended as part of the deal. The president also proposes a 35% estate tax rate, with a $5 million exemption.  It appears that the President traded tax extensions for the “rich” for unemployment benefit extensions and the below payroll tax deduction.

— Payroll tax deduction. This would reduce the 6.2% Social Security payroll tax applied to employee wages by 2 percentage points.

— Renewal of emergency unemployment benefits through the end of 2011. This would be more than the three-month extension most analysts had expected. It puts around $60 billion in the hands of unemployed citizens, which is much more than the consensus expected.

— ARRA tax cut extensions. Several small tax cuts in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, passed in 2009, will be extended, including an expanded earned income tax credit, and various education-related tax breaks.

— Full expensing of business investments in 2011.  This would allow the expensing of business investment in 2011, similar to the policy that the president proposed in September.  It will allow companies to deduct the entire cost of capital expenditures on their taxes rather than depreciate them.

Congress and the White House will need to work out the details, but I expect this tax bill to pass. It’s not likely that this lame duck Congress would leave for the holidays until this is sent to the President for his signature.  It’s rare that I pity the Internal Revenue Service, but with tax forms to revamp and guidance and rules to formulate, they will be behind the curve on getting this out.  I would expect some delays of 2010 income tax refunds for returns filed early, but none that are terribly lengthy.

The stock markets have been expecting this, and some of it already factored into current levels, but I still expect market reaction to be positive and further bolster any Santa Claus rally we may have coming.  This is essentially another huge fiscal stimulus plan, perhaps larger than any of us have been expecting or realize.

I’ve been saying all along that Congress will “hem and haw”, posture for their constituents, and pretend to be against tax cuts and for fiscal responsibility.  But ultimately the economy is too fragile to be saddled with a tax increase this year or next. Even I am a bit surprised by the depth and breadth of the bill, but I could not see Congress not doing something before year-end. Failing to pass something would have amounted to a quantitative easing neutralizer (i.e., rendering quantitative easing worthless).

I will keep my eyes and ears peeled open for more details about this bill and its ultimate passage and will let you know what ultimately gets passed. If you, a family member, friend or colleague would like more information about this or just need to talk about a financial situation, please feel free to forward a link to this post to them and suggest they get in touch with me (http://www.ydfs.com).  I will be sure to take good care of them.  As always, I’m available for any questions you may have and welcome your comments.

Have a great holiday season and look for my year-end and 2011 Economic and Market Outlook letter later this month.

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