Market & Economic Week-January 31, 2025

The S&P 500 index closed down 1% in a volatile week. Monday’s markets opened on a down note due to bad news for artificial intelligence stocks, mostly recovered during the week, then dipped back down on Friday due to news on tariffs going into effect over the weekend. The NASDAQ 100 index lost 1.4%, while the small-capitalization stocks (small caps) lost 1.5%

For January, the S&P 500 index gained 2.7%, the NASDAQ 100 was up 2.2%, and the small caps bounced back 2.0%, a solidly positive start to the year.

Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board fell 5.4 points in January. The Present Situation Index fell sharply by nearly ten points while the Future Expectations Index fell 2.6 points to 83.9, hovering above the Conference Board’s “80” threshold for “recession ahead.” Overall, consumer confidence remains within the same range as it has bounced in for the last two years.

The Commerce Department reported that U.S. manufactured durable goods orders plunged by 2.2% in December (amid a nosedive in orders for transportation equipment) after tumbling by a revised 2.0% in November. Economists expected an increase of 0.8% in December, which was a big expectations miss.

December New Home Sales from the Census Bureau rose 3.6%. However, unsold inventory continues to increase and now represents a supply of 8.5 months at the current sales rate, which is historically elevated and is among some of its highest levels since the popping of the last housing bubble.

Pending Home Sales from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) tumbled 5.5% in December, with decreased transactions in all four regions of the country. The report further highlights the fragile housing market, a key area to watch. Pending sales have bounced around a small range over the last couple of years and remain near record lows. This marks a significant downturn in contract signings, evidence of prolonged buyer hesitation due to decades-high mortgage rates.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate remains near 7%, contributing to affordability issues and keeping potential buyers from purchasing. Despite the Federal Reserve’s 1% rate cut since September, mortgage rates have risen over the same period.

December’s headline Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index was 2.6%, up from 2.4% the previous month, while Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, remained stubbornly unchanged at 2.8%. While inflation has moderated since its highs following the pandemic, it remains elevated and could pose issues for the Federal Reserve.

Sam H. Fawaz is the President of YDream Financial Services, Inc., a fee-only investment advisory and financial planning firm serving the entire United States. If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other tax or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first, with no products to sell. If you are not a client, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client and their financial plan and investment objectives are different.

Source: InvesTech Research

Market & Economic Summary for the Week Ended January 24, 2025

The shortened holiday trading week saw markets react positively to the presidential inauguration and a slew of policy decisions, lifting the S&P 500 Index by 1.7% to a new all-time closing high. The NASDAQ index closed up almost 1.6%, and the small-capitalization Russell 2000 index followed suit and closed up almost 1.4%.

While market technical data failed to make significant positive headway going into this coming week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, institutional selling (distribution) eased for the first time in several weeks.

Economic data was somewhat light this week.

Existing Home Sales from the National Association of Realtors for December rose 2.2% month over month and 9.3% year over year. Despite these seeming improvements, total sales for 2024 settled at the lowest level in almost 30 years. Existing Home Sales have bounced around a historically low range since late 2022 and continue to expose significant fissures in the housing market. Housing sector stocks remained buoyant for the week.

The Consumer Sentiment final reading for January surprised to the downside, dropping 4% from December’s reading. All components saw declines except for consumers’ assessments of personal finances. This broad-based pullback reflects concerns surrounding the current and future economy and inflation. Year-ahead inflation expectations soared to 3.3% this month, which does not bode well for the Fed’s battle to their 2% target.

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell back in December. Despite strong contributions from financial inputs, the LEI failed to gain positive traction, as half of the ten components, including new orders and consumer expectations, were negative for the month. Thus, the leading economic data indicates that the path forward remains somewhat uncertain.

Sam H. Fawaz is the President of YDream Financial Services, Inc., a fee-only investment advisory and financial planning firm serving the entire United States. If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other tax or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first, with no products to sell. If you are not a client, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client and their financial plan and investment objectives are different.

Source: InvesTech Research

Market & Economic Summary for the Week Ended January 17, 2025

Compared to the prior week, all seemed to be forgiven in the markets, as the S&P 500 index leaped 2.9% thanks to better-than-feared inflation data. The NASDAQ also sprinted up 2.9%, while the Small-Capitalization stocks led the way, vaulting almost 4.0%. January continues to live up to its reputation for increasing chop and volatility, while some signs of institutional selling continued.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December came in at 2.9%, up from 2.7% in November. Core CPI (which excludes the more volatile categories of food and energy) was down from 3.3% to 3.2%, signaling that the rate of inflation is stubbornly stable and consumers are still feeling the pinch. Wall Street cheered this better than expected news as it continues to expect (hope?) at least two rate cuts in 2025.

The Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks prices paid by businesses, was also up 3.3% year over year in December but lower than forecast. The vast majority of producer price increases resulted from energy costs.

The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) released its Small Business Optimism Index for December, which increased to its highest reading since July 2019. Small business owners are feeling more hopeful about the future, anticipating that potential favorable regulatory changes from the incoming administration will help Main Street.

Builder Confidence from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) edged up in December, as did Traffic of Prospective Buyers. However, sales expectations in the next six months fell six points. Price cuts and sales incentives continue to be offered as the cost of construction and high mortgage rates rise.

Housing Starts were up a surprising 15.8% in December, much of this due to an almost 60% increase in multi-family unit starts. This is an extremely volatile monthly number, and it’s worth noting that Housing Starts were still down 4.4% year-over-year. Additionally, Building Permits, which are generally more forward-looking and feed into future housing starts, were down 0.7% from November and down 3.1% compared to 2023.

YDream Financial Services is an investment advisory and financial planning firm serving the entire United States. If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first. If you are not a client, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client and your financial plan and investment objectives are different.

Source: InvesTech Research

Market & Economic Summary for the Week Ended January 10, 2025

The S&P 500 index closed almost two percent lower after a fairly volatile, shortened trading week as investors grapple with uncertainty regarding future monetary policy and economic conditions. The NASDAQ index shed 2.2% while the small capitalization stocks slid 3.4% on the week, giving up their prior week‘s strength.

The post-election market “bump” we saw has all but been dissipated as institutional distribution (selling) continued this week, raising concerns of a more extended market correction.

Friday’s Employment Situation Summary (AKA the monthly jobs report) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for December surprised forecasts, coming in with 256K new jobs while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. Employment increases were seen in health care, retail, government, and social assistance. While a positive development, all but retail are non-cyclical sectors that are less sensitive to economic fluctuations. Stocks sold off and interest rates ticked up in response as the report reduces the possibility of additional rate cuts in 2025.

Job Openings from the BLS for November reported an increase to its highest level since May. Despite this, both the hiring and quits rate ticked down, suggesting that employers are hiring cautiously and that workers may feel less confident about finding new job opportunities.

The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Services Sector rose in December, signaling continued expansion. However, a dramatic increase in the Prices Paid subcomponent is concerning, indicating that inflation pressures are becoming more pervasive. Despite improvements in most components, bond yields jumped higher and stocks sold off, proving that good economic news can sometimes elicit a bad market reaction.

A deeper look beneath the surface reveals why the situation may not be as encouraging as it seems. Many survey respondents cited end-of-year seasonal factors that boosted demand (perhaps to front-run potential tariffs.) Indeed, the main focus was tied to concerns about potential tariffs. This implies that the services sector could be weaker in the coming months if new policies are introduced.

Since September, the Federal Reserve has implemented several short-term interest rate cuts in an attempt to support economic growth. However, despite these efforts, longer-term bond yields have actually continued to climb (pressuring bond prices.) This suggests that some investors may be rejecting the idea that inflation has been tamed, which would likely limit the Fed’s ability to reduce rates further in the near term.

Friday’s preliminary January reading of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan saw a fractional decrease from last month. However, the Current Conditions component improved while the Consumer Expectations component fell, reflecting concerns over future economic growth. Inflation uncertainty has climbed considerably over the past twelve months and year-ahead expectations soared in January, its highest reading since May 2024.

Sam H. Fawaz is the President of YDream Financial Services, Inc., a fee-only investment advisory and financial planning firm serving the entire United States. If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other tax or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first with no products to sell. If you are not a client, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client and their financial plan and investment objectives are different.

Source: InvesTech Research

Market & Economic Summary for the Week Ended January 3, 2025

In another volatile holiday-shortened week, the S&P 500 index closed 0.5% lower as the euphoric end-of-year rally lost all momentum. The NASDAQ index closed down 0.75%, while the small capitalization stocks finally showed some strength and closed up 0.9%. The traditional year-end Santa Claus rally was MIA as more signs of institutional distribution (selling) emerged.

The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Purchasing Managers (PMI) Index (1) for Manufacturing came in at 49.3%, just 0.9 percentage points higher than November’s reading but still in contraction. While manufacturing is still in contraction overall, it is moving slower. Additionally, the New Orders Index improved in December.

However, the report also showed that the Employment Index decreased and fell deeper into contraction while the Prices Index rose and grew faster. If manufacturing employment continues to decline while prices climb and overall contraction persists, even an increase in new orders may not keep the manufacturing sector afloat.

Pending Home Sales (2) from the National Association of Realtors increased by 2.2%, suggesting buyers may no longer be willing to wait for lower mortgage rates. The 30-year fixed rate is still increasing and nearing 7%.

The 20-City Adjusted Case-Shiller Home Price Index for October was up 0.3% versus September (4.2% year over year), slightly higher than expected.

Monitoring additional housing metrics in the coming weeks will be essential to gauge the housing market’s health in 2025.

Weekly jobless claims came in at 211,000, lower than expectations for 225,000, showing continued stability. This data tends to be volatile around the holidays.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its monthly jobs report for December on Friday, January 10.

YDream Financial Services is an investment advisory and financial planning firm serving the entire United States. If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first. If you are not a client, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client and your financial plan and investment objectives are different.

(1) The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released on the first business day of each month for the previous month, surveys purchasing and supply executives around the country on new orders, production, employment, and much more. Manufacturing supply executives are polled on their view of the current economic climate concerning their respective businesses. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index – “they have properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change.” A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, while a reading below 50 percent indicates that it is typically declining. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is considered a highly reliable gauge of current business conditions for the manufacturing sector.

(2) The Pending Home Sales Index from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) is a leading indicator for the housing sector based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is pending if a contract has been signed but has not yet closed. Typically, these sales close within two months of a contract signing.

Source: InvesTech Research

Essential Year-End Tax Planning Tips for 2024

Tax planning becomes essential for individuals and businesses as the year ends. Proactively managing your finances before the calendar flips to 2025 can help minimize your tax burden and set you up for a financially secure new year.

Many clients submit their information yearly to have us optimize their 2024 and future years’ taxes. Proactively estimating and making side-by-side multi-year tax projections has permanently saved some clients thousands of dollars in taxes.

Here are some things to consider as you weigh potential tax moves between now and the end of the year.

1. Consider deferring income to next year

The old rule used to be “defer income.” The new rule is “time income.”

Consider opportunities to defer income to 2025, especially if you may be in a lower tax bracket next year.

For example, you may be able to defer a year-end bonus or delay the collection of business debts, rent, and payments for services. Doing so may enable you to postpone tax payments on the income until next year.

If you have the option to sell real property on a land contract rather than an outright sale, that can spread your tax liability over several years and be subject to a lower long-term capital gain rate (which could be as low as 0%.) On the other hand, if you’re concerned about future tax rate hikes, an outright sale or opting out of the installment method for a land contract sale can ease the uncertainty that you’ll pay higher rates on the deferred income.

If your top tax rate in 2024 is lower than what you expect in 2025 (say, because you are retiring or because of significant gains or a big raise or bonus expected in 2025), it might make sense to accelerate income instead of deferring it.

Be mindful of accelerating or bunching income, which can potentially 1) increase the taxability of social security income, 2) increase Medicare premiums, 3) raise your long-term capital gains rate from 0% to 20%, or 4) decrease your ACA health insurance premium credit.

2. Time your deductions

Once again, the old rule used to be “accelerate deductions.” The new rule is “time deductions.”

If appropriate, look for opportunities to accelerate deductions into the current tax year, especially if your tax rate will be higher this year than next.

If you own a business and are in a high tax bracket, consider accelerating business equipment purchases and electing up to a full expense deduction (via bonus depreciation or Section 179 expensing.)

If you itemize deductions, making payments for deductible expenses such as qualifying interest, state, and local taxes (to the extent they don’t already exceed $10,000), and medical expenses before the end of the year (instead of paying them in early 2025) could make a difference on your 2024 return.

For taxpayers who typically itemize their deductions, the strategy of “bunching” deductions can significantly impact them. Instead of spreading charitable contributions, medical expenses, and other deductible costs across multiple years, consider consolidating them into one year. By “bunching” these deductions, you may exceed the standard deduction threshold and maximize your itemized deductions for the year.

For example, if you typically donate $2,000 annually to charity but are not receiving a tax benefit because you are utilizing the standard deduction, consider making multiple years of contributions in 2024. This could help you exceed the standard deduction amount, allowing you to itemize your deductions and providing more tax benefits (see below.)

For those with significant medical expenses, it’s important to note that only the portion of medical expenses exceeding 7.5% of your adjusted gross income (AGI) can be deducted. If you’re close to reaching that threshold, consider scheduling medical procedures, doctor visits, or purchasing necessary medical equipment before the year ends. Remember that medical expenses are only deductible in the year they are paid, so timing matters.

3. Make deductible charitable contributions

Making charitable donations can reduce your taxable income while supporting causes that matter to you.

If you itemize deductions on your federal income tax return, you can generally deduct charitable contributions, but the deduction is limited to 60%, 50%, 30%, or 20% of your adjusted gross income, depending on the type of property you give and the type of organization to which you contribute. Excess amounts can be carried over for up to five years.

You can use checks or credit cards to make year-end contributions even if the check does not clear until shortly after year-end or the credit card bill does not have to be paid until next year.

As you consider year-end charitable giving, there are a few strategies to keep in mind:

  • Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs): If you’re 70½ or older, you can direct up to $105,000 (2024 limit) from your IRA to a charity as a QCD. This donation counts toward your required minimum distribution (RMD) and is excluded from your taxable income (and can reduce the taxation of social security income.) QCDs cannot be counted as deductible charitable donations.
  • Donor-Advised Funds (DAFs): DAFs allow you to make a significant charitable contribution in 2024 and receive the tax deduction now while deciding which charities to support over the next several years. This is a strategy to help with the bunching of itemized deductions described earlier.
  • Appreciated Stock Donations: Donating appreciated stocks that have been held for over one year instead of cash generally provides a double benefit. It allows you to avoid paying capital gains tax on the appreciation while receiving a charitable deduction equal to the investment’s fair market value.

4. Bump up withholding to cover a tax shortfall

If it looks as though you will owe federal income tax for the year, consider increasing your withholding on Form W-4 for the remainder of the year to cover the shortfall. Time may be limited for employees to request a Form W-4 change and for their employers to implement it in 2024.

The most significant advantage in doing so is that withholding is considered to have been paid evenly throughout the year instead of when the dollars are taken from your paycheck. This approach can help you avoid or reduce possible underpayment of estimated tax penalties.

Those taking distributions from their IRAs can also request that up to 100% of the distribution be paid toward federal and state income tax withholding to help avoid underpayment of estimated tax penalties.

These increased withholding strategies can compensate for low or missing quarterly estimated tax payments.

5. Save more for retirement

Deductible contributions to a traditional IRA and pretax contributions to an employer-sponsored retirement plan such as a 401(k) can reduce your 2024 taxable income. Consider doing so if you still need to contribute up to the maximum amount allowed.

For 2024, you can contribute up to $23,000 to a 401(k) plan ($30,500 if you’re age 50 or older) and up to $7,000 to traditional and Roth IRAs combined ($8,000 if you’re age 50 or older). The window to make 2024 employee contributions to an employer plan generally closes at the end of the year, while you have until April 15, 2025, to make 2024 IRA contributions.

Various income limitations exist for eligibility to make traditional and Roth IRA contributions. Regardless of your income, however, you can make a non-deductible IRA contribution. Such a contribution can be subsequently converted to a Roth IRA at little or no tax cost for many (this is known by many as the “back-door” Roth.) If a Roth IRA conversion doesn’t make sense, the non-deductible contribution adds cost basis to your traditional IRA, reducing future taxation of IRA distributions or Roth conversions. Note that Roth contributions are not deductible and Roth-qualified distributions are not taxable.

Speaking of Roth Conversions, if you expect your tax rate to be higher in future years, or you’re in a low tax bracket in 2024, converting some or all your traditional (pre-tax) IRA or 401(k) funds into a Roth IRA in 2024 may be beneficial. While this conversion triggers taxes now, it can reduce future tax liabilities, as qualified withdrawals from a Roth IRA are tax-free.

Owners of small businesses with retirement plans may have until the due date of their tax returns (plus extensions) to make some retirement plan contributions. Check with your tax advisor for your particular small-business retirement plan.

Some small business retirement plans must be set up by 12/31/2024 to allow for a deduction for the 2024 tax year.

If you have a small business, check with your tax advisor to ensure your retirement plan deductions are correctly balanced with the qualified business income deduction, assuming your small business is eligible.

6. Take required minimum distributions

If you are 73 or older, you generally must take required minimum distributions (RMDs) from traditional IRAs and employer-sponsored retirement plans (special rules may apply if you’re still working and participating in your employer’s retirement plan.)

If you reach 73 in 2024, you must begin taking minimum distributions from your retirement accounts (traditional IRAs, 401(k)s, etc.) by April 1, 2025. However, delaying the 2024 RMD until 2025 will require you to include both the 2024 and 2025 RMDs into 2025 income.

You must make the withdrawals by the required date—the end of the year for most individuals. The penalty for failing to do so is substantial: 25% of any amount you failed to distribute as required (10% if corrected promptly).

In 2024, the IRS finalized somewhat complicated regulations relating to RMDs from inherited IRAs after December 31, 2019.

In general, under the SECURE Act, unless an exception applies, the entire balance of a traditional or Roth IRA must be fully distributed by the end of the 10th year after the year of death.

In addition, depending on the age of the original IRA owner, heirs must take an RMD every year until the 10th year, when the remaining account balance must be distributed. These rules require careful and sometimes complex, multi-year planning for large inherited IRAs, so it’s essential to consult your tax advisor.

Review your accounts to ensure you’ve met your RMD requirement for the year, and if applicable, consider making charitable contributions through a QCD.

7. Weigh year-end investment moves

I often tell folks, “You should not let the tax tail wag the investment dog.” That means that you shouldn’t let tax considerations drive your investment decisions.

With that in mind, lower-income taxpayers may be subject to a 0% long-term capital gains rate for up to about $47K of taxable income for single filers and $94K for joint filers. For “kids” under 26, up to $2,600 of long-term capital gains are taxed at 0% if filed on their own tax returns (not filed with parents’ returns.)

Regardless, it’s worth considering the tax implications of any year-end investment moves that you make. For example, if you have realized net capital gains from selling securities at a profit, you might avoid being taxed on some or all those gains by selling losing positions (also known as tax loss harvesting.)

Any capital losses over and above your capital gains can offset up to $3,000 of ordinary income ($1,500 if your filing status is married filing separately) or be carried forward to reduce your taxes in future years.

Wash sale rules prevent investors from selling an investment at a loss and re-purchasing the same or substantially similar security within 30 days in any of their or spouse’s accounts (including retirement accounts). Doing so invalidates the loss for the current year, and the loss deduction is suspended until the new security is ultimately sold. If you wait 31 days to repurchase the same (or substantially similar security), the wash sale rules do not apply.

Digital assets like Bitcoin are not subject to wash sales rules, so there’s no harm in harvesting a loss and then immediately re-purchasing the same digital asset if desired.

8. Contribute to 529 Education Savings Plans

If you’re planning to save for education expenses, the end of the year is an excellent time to consider contributions to a 529 education savings plan. There is no federal tax deduction for 529 plan contributions, but the account grows tax-free if the funds are used for qualifying educational purposes.

Many states offer a limited tax deduction or credit for 529 plan contributions (some states even allow for a deduction for a 529 plan rollover from another state’s 529 plan.) In many states, contributing to a 529 plan you don’t own (say for a sibling, grandkid, nephew, niece, cousin, or friend) also allows for a state tax deduction.

There’s a five-year “super-funding” strategy for those needing to accelerate their college funding. This strategy allows you to contribute up to five years’ worth of gifts to a 529 plan in a year ($90,000 for individuals, $180,000 for married couples). A gift tax return must be filed, but it may not be taxable if this is the only gift made to that person in the current year. This can be a great way to accelerate your child’s education savings.

With the ability to 1) fund private K-12 education, 2) repay some student loans up to $10,000, and 3) rollover some leftover 529 plan funds to a Roth IRA after college graduation, worries about overfunding a 529 education savings plan are far less than they used to be.

In summary, year-end tax planning is a valuable opportunity to control your finances and reduce your taxable income for the year. Reviewing your financial situation, consulting with your tax advisor, and implementing these year-end strategies will ensure that you enter 2025 knowing you’ve made proactive decisions to optimize your tax savings.

Don’t hesitate to contact us if you would like to discuss a tax plan that fully utilizes all available strategies.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first. If you are not a client, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client and your financial plan and investment objectives are different.

Real Estate Commissions are about to Change

For decades, it’s been a well-known and accepted truism. Anytime you plan to sell your home with the help of a real estate agent, you are expected to pay a 6% commission on the sale. Sure, there have been discount brokers and ways to get your home listed on the Multiple Listing Services (MLS) on the cheap, but deep down, you knew that if you didn’t pay at or near 6%, your property might not get the same attention as others who did.

That’s about to change.

In March 2024, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reached a landmark $418 million settlement after losing an antitrust lawsuit filed by a group of home sellers. As many as 50 million people who paid commissions on homes sold in recent years could receive a small amount from the class-action settlement. The powerful industry group also agreed to change long-standing practices related to sales commissions. (1)

Background

For decades, many real estate agents have had little choice but to join NAR and follow its rules regarding local MLS — the databases most brokers use to list information about properties for sale. Listing brokers typically cooperated with buyer’s agents and split the commission paid by the seller, with the amounts communicated via the MLS in data fields that were only visible to agents.

Plaintiffs claimed that NAR (and brokers that require agents to be NAR members) conspired to artificially inflate commissions through an industry-wide practice requiring the seller to pay commissions to brokers on both sides of the transaction. They believed this helped to uphold a nationwide standard of five to six percent of the sales price, which is significantly higher than the commissions paid in many other countries. (2)

Practice Changes

Effective August 17, 2024, NAR will implement the following new policies related to how real estate brokers are compensated to handle transactions. (3)

1. Commission offers for buyer’s agents can no longer be required to appear in the MLS, though they are still permitted. Listing agents can advertise specific commission offers on brokerage websites and over the phone, text message, or email. Home sellers and their agents will negotiate directly with buyers and their agents regarding compensation.

2. Buyers must discuss and set compensation directly with their agents before touring homes, as sellers do with listing agents. They will be asked to sign written representation agreements that outline the agents’ services (e.g., showing property, negotiating offers, transaction management) and how much they charge. This is to help ensure that buyers are fully aware of the costs they could be responsible for paying.

Implications for Buyers and Sellers

These changes are intended to allow more room for negotiation and spur competition, which could help lower sellers’ costs. Commissions have always been baked into transaction prices, so home prices would likely be reduced in markets where sellers’ costs fall.

Some economists believe commissions could drop as much as 30% if buyer’s agents face pressure from potential clients to discount their fees, but savings of this magnitude aren’t guaranteed. (4) The impact on real estate commissions will ultimately depend on market conditions, which can vary greatly by location and how sellers, buyers, and agents respond to the new practices.

Like other businesses, brokerages have overhead that includes rent, liability insurance, marketing, and other operating costs. Most individual agents must split sales commissions with their brokers (from about 60/40 up to 80/20 for the most productive agents) or pay fees to the company.

A buyer’s agent sometimes shows property to clients over days to months and may write numerous offers for deals that never come together. Many experienced buyer’s agents — long accustomed to receiving the same commission as the listing agent — may be reluctant to work for less, even if they must justify their value more regularly.

Buyers will determine the commission for their agents, but the money may or may not come from their pockets. For example, an offer could be made contingent on the seller paying the buyer’s share of the commission or include a request for a general credit toward closing costs in the amount needed to pay the buyer’s agent. Current lending guidelines and regulations prevent most buyers from adding commission costs to their mortgages. A rule pertaining to Veterans’ Administration (VA) loans, which specifically prohibited borrowers from paying agent commissions, has been temporarily suspended. (5)

In some cases, sellers might agree to cover buyers’ commissions, as it has long been customary and could still be in their best interests. Nationwide, home prices have risen more than 50% since 2019, and high interest rates have made mortgage payments much less affordable. (6) This means sellers with equity tend to be in a better position to pay commissions than potential buyers, many of whom may struggle to come up with enough cash for the down payment. For these reasons, a seller willing to pay all or some of the buyer’s commission may receive more offers and a higher final price than one who refuses to do so. This assumes, of course, the current cooling of the housing market continues.

Online sites have made it easier to shop for a home without using an agent, so more buyers might brave the market on their own if they think they can pocket the savings. Yet buying a home is the biggest financial transaction many people will make in their lifetimes, and the issues that arise during the process can be unexpected. There are many situations in which buyers could benefit from having their own representation, especially if they are inexperienced or unfamiliar with the local market.

First-time buyers, responsible for 31% of existing home sales in May 2024, may have more confidence and make more informed decisions if they work with a trusted professional. (7) However, many will need help from sellers to pay their agents’ fees, putting them at a bigger disadvantage than ever against buyers with more access to cash in competitive markets.

Negotiating commissions among all parties is likely to make it harder to strike deals in general, so buyers may have to search longer and write more offers before they are successful. It’s also possible that sellers will see little change in commission costs in the coming months while the market is in flux. But in time, the new rules could spark innovation that creates new business models and expands lower-cost options.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other retirement, tax, or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us at 734-447-5305 or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first. If you are not a client, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client and your financial plan and investment objectives are different.

1) The Wall Street Journal, March 15, 2024

2, 4) The New York Times, May 10, 2024

3, 5, 7) National Association of Realtors, 2024

6) The Wall Street Journal, June 27, 2024

The Impact of Higher Interest Rates on Real Estate

At the beginning of March 2022, the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bill interest rate hovered around 1.8%. By January 2024, that same 10-year rate hovered around 4%, more than doubling in less than two years.

As a result, U.S. commercial real estate prices fell more than 11% between March 2022, when the Federal Reserve started hiking interest rates, and January 2024. The potential for steeper losses has chilled the market and still poses potentially significant risks to some property owners and lenders. (1)

On the residential side of the real estate market, the national median price of an existing home rose 5.7% over the year that ended in April 2024 to reach $407,600, a record high for April. (2) Despite sky-high borrowing costs, buyer demand (driven by younger generations forming new households) has exceeded the supply of homes for sale.

Here are some factors affecting these distinct markets and the broader economy.

Slow-motion Commercial Meltdown

The expansion of remote work and e-commerce (two byproducts of the pandemic) drastically reduced demand for office and retail space, especially in major metro areas. An estimated $1.2 trillion in commercial loans are maturing in 2024 and 2025, but depressed property values, high financing costs, and vacancy rates could make it difficult for owners to keep up with their debt. (3) In April 2024, an estimated $38 billion of office buildings were threatened by default, foreclosure, or distress, the highest amount since 2012. (4)

In a televised interview on CBS’ 60 Minutes in February, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the mounting losses in commercial real estate are a “sizable problem” that could take years to resolve, but the risks to the financial system appear to be manageable. (5)

Locked-up Housing Market

The average rate for a 30-year fixed interest rate mortgage climbed from around 3.2% in the beginning of 2022 to a 23-year high of nearly 8% in October 2023. Mortgage rates have dropped since then, but not as much as many hoped. In May 2024, the average rate hovered around 7%. (6)

The inventory of homes for sale has been extremely low since the pandemic, but a nationwide housing shortage has been in the works for decades. The 2005-2007 housing crash devastated the construction industry, and labor shortages, limited land, higher material costs, and local building restrictions have all been blamed for a long-term decline in new single-family home construction.  The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, better known as Freddie Mac, estimated the housing shortfall was 3.8 million units in 2021 (most recent data). (7)

Many homeowners have mortgages with ultra-low rates, making them reluctant to sell because they would have to finance their next homes at much higher rates. This “lock-in effect” has worsened the inventory shortage and cut deep into existing home sales. At the same time, the combination of higher mortgage rates and home prices has taken a serious toll on affordability and locked many aspiring first-time buyers out of homeownership.

In April 2024, home inventories were up 16% over the previous year, but there was still just a 3.5-month supply at the current sales pace (a market with a six-month supply is viewed as balanced between buyers and sellers, but see the Latest Housing Data below.) The supply of homes priced at more than $1 million was up 34% over the previous year, which may help affluent buyers but won’t do much to improve the affordability of entry-level homes. (8)

New Construction Kicking In

Newly built homes accounted for 33.4% of homes for sale in the first quarter of 2024, down from a peak of 34.5% in 2022 but still about double the pre-pandemic share. The growth in market share for new homes was mostly due to the lack of existing homes for sale. (9)

April 2024 was the second-highest month for total housing completions in 15 years, with 1.62 million units (measured annually), including single-family and multi-family homes. (10) This may cause apartment vacancies to trend higher, help slow rent growth, and allow more families to purchase brand-new homes in the next few months.

Renters are seeing some relief thanks to a glut of multi-family apartment projects that were started in 2021 and 2022 — back when interest rates were low — and are gradually becoming available. In the 1st quarter of 2024, the average apartment rent fell to $1,731, 1.8% below the peak in the summer of 2023. (11)

We don’t want to see a dramatic decline in new multi-family housing projects just as rents are starting to ease. Reducing housing inflation is essential to paving a path toward lower interest rates, but rents could rise again if the new supply drops significantly.

Effects Weave Through the Economy

By one estimate, the construction and management of commercial buildings contributed $2.5 trillion to U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), generated $881.4 billion in personal earnings, and supported 15 million jobs in 2023. (12) According to the National Association of Realtors, residential real estate contributed an estimated $4.9 trillion (or 18%) to U.S. GDP in 2023, with each median-priced home sale generating about $125,000. When a home is purchased (new or existing), it tends to increase housing-related expenditures such as appliances, furniture, home improvement, and landscaping. (13)

Both real estate industries employ many types of professionals, and developing new homes and buildings stimulates local economies by creating well-paying construction jobs and boosting property tax receipts. The development benefits other businesses (locally and nationally) by increasing production and employment in industries that provide raw materials like lumber or that manufacture or sell building tools, equipment, and components.

Shifts in real estate values, up or down, can influence consumer and business finances, confidence, and spending. And when buying a home seems unattainable, some younger consumers might give up on that goal and spend their money on other things.

If interest rates stay high for too long, they could accelerate commercial loan defaults, losses, and bank failures, continue to constrain home sales, or eventually push down home values—and any of these outcomes could potentially cut into economic growth. When the Federal Reserve finally begins to cut interest rates, borrowing costs should follow, but that’s not likely to happen until inflation is no longer viewed as the larger threat.

Latest Housing Data

The latest housing data shows we may have seen a cyclical high for the housing market.

For April, the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City House Price Index was up again, increasing by 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis, but below forecasts. While the Index is rising to new highs, home price growth is slowing.

May New Home Sales fell 11.3% from the previous month, and prices are now 9% below their October 2022 peak. The number of months’ supply of new homes for sale jumped, rising to 9.3 months, reflecting inventory levels only seen in some of the worst housing recessions of the last 50 years.

The housing market is starting to come back to earth. It is a major unknown how long it will take to normalize or how swift its fall. If new home sales data worsens and existing home supply increases further, prices will inevitably come down. We don’t want to see mounting evidence of a housing market plunge, which would majorly affect the broader economy.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other retirement, tax, or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us at 734-447-5305 or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first. If you are not a client, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client and your financial plan and investment objectives are different.

1, 3) International Monetary Fund, January 18, 2024

2, 8, 10, 13) National Association of Realtors, 2024

4) The Wall Street Journal, April 30, 2024

5) CBS News, February 4, 2024

6–7) Freddie Mac, 2022–2024

9) Redfin, May 20, 2024

11) Moody’s, April 1, 2024

12) NAIOP Commercial Real Estate Development Association, 2024

Are Interest Rates Signaling a Recession?

According to Investopedia, the yield curve shows the relationship between bond yields (the interest rates on the vertical axis) and bond maturity (the time on the horizontal axis).

Long-term bonds generally provide higher yields than short-term bonds because investors demand higher returns to compensate for the risk of lending money over an extended period. Occasionally, however, this relationship flips, and investors are willing to accept lower yields in return for the relative safety of longer-term bonds. This is called a yield curve inversion because a graph showing bond yields in relation to maturity is essentially turned upside down.

Imagine going to the bank and being told that a 1-year certificate of deposit yields 4.0%, but the 5-year CD only yields 3.0%. Few people would lock up their money for five times as long and earn a lower rate. This is an example of a yield inversion.

A yield curve could also apply to any bonds that carry similar risk, but the most studied curve is for U.S. Treasury securities, and the most common focal point is the relationship between the two-year and 10-year Treasury notes. Although Treasuries are often referred to as bonds, maturities up to one year are called bills, while maturities of two to 10 years are called notes. Only 20- and 30-year Treasuries are officially called bonds.

The two-year yield has been higher than the 10-year yield since July 2022, and beginning in late November, the difference has been at levels not seen since 1981. The biggest separation in 2022 came on December 7, when the two-year was 4.26%, and the 10-year was 3.42%, a difference of 0.84%. Other short-term Treasuries have also offered higher yields;  the highest yields in early 2023 were for the six-month and one-year Treasury bills. (1) 

Predicting Recessions

An inversion of the two-year and ten-year Treasury notes has preceded each recession over the past 50 years, reliably predicting a recession within the next one to two years. (2)  A 2018 Federal Reserve study suggested that an inversion of the three-month and ten-year Treasuries may be an even more reliable indicator, predicting a recession within about 12 months. (3) The three-month and ten-year Treasuries have been inverted since late October 2022, and in December 2022 and early January 2023, the difference was often greater than the inversion of the two- and 10-year notes. (4)

Weakness or Inflation Control?

Yield curve inversions do not cause a recession; rather they indicate a shift in investor sentiment that may reflect underlying economic weakness. A normal yield curve suggests investors believe the economy will continue to grow and interest rates will likely rise with the growth. In this scenario, an investor typically would want a premium to tie up capital in long-term bonds and potentially miss out on other opportunities in the future.

Conversely, an inversion suggests that investors see economic challenges that are likely to push interest rates down and typically would instead invest and lock in longer-term bonds at today’s yields. This increases demand for long-term bonds, driving prices up and yields down.

Note that bond prices and yields move in opposite directions; the more you pay for a bond that pays a given coupon interest rate, the lower the yield will be, and vice-versa.

The current situation is not so simple. The Federal Reserve has rapidly raised the benchmark federal funds rate (short-term) to combat inflation, increasing it from near 0% in March 2022 to 4.50%–4.75% today. The fed funds rate is the rate charged for overnight loans within the Federal Reserve System.  The funds rate directly affects other short-term rates, which is why yields on short-term Treasuries have increased rapidly. The fact that 10-year Treasuries have lagged the increase in the federal funds rate may mean that investors believe a recession is coming. But it could also reflect the confidence that the Fed is winning the battle against inflation and will lower rates over the next few years. This is in line with the Federal Reserve’s (The Fed) projections, which see the funds rate peaking at 5.0%–5.25% by the end of 2023 and then dropping to 4.0%–4.25% in 2024 and 3.0%–3.25% in 2025. (5)

Inflation has been slowing somewhat in October-December, but there is a long way to go to reach the Fed’s target of 2% inflation for a healthy economy. (6)  The fundamental question remains the same as it has been since the Fed launched its aggressive rate increases: Will it require a recession to control inflation, or can it be controlled without shifting the economy into reverse?

Other Indicators and Forecasts

The yield curve is one of many indicators that economists consider when making economic projections. Among the most closely watched are the ten leading economic indicators published by the Conference Board, with data on employment, interest rates, manufacturing, stock prices, housing, and consumer sentiment. The Leading Economic Index, which includes all ten indicators, fell for nine consecutive months through November 2022. Conference Board economists predict a recession beginning around the end of 2022 and lasting until mid-2023. (7) Recessions are not officially declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research until they are underway. The Conference Board view would suggest the United States may already be in a recession.

In The Wall Street Journal’s October 2022 Economic Forecasting Survey, most economists believed the United States would enter a recession within the next 12 months, with an average expectation of a relatively mild 8-month downturn. (8) More recent surveys of economists for the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association and Wolters Kluwer Blue Chip Economic Indicators also found a consensus for a mild recession in 2023. (9)

For now, the economy appears strong despite high inflation, with a low December 2022 unemployment rate of 3.5% and an estimated 2.9% 4th quarter growth rate for real gross domestic product (GDP). Nonetheless, the indicators and surveys discussed above suggest an economic downturn in the next year or so. This would likely cause some job losses and other temporary financial hardship, but a brief recession may be the necessary price to tame inflation and put the U.S. economy on a more stable track for future growth.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so are your financial plan and investment objectives.

(1), (4) U.S. Treasury, 2023

(2)  Financial Times, December 7, 2022

(3) Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, August 27, 2018

(5) Federal Reserve, 2022

(6) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2022

(7)  The Conference Board, December 22, 2022

(8) The Wall Street Journal, October 16, 2022

(9) SIFMA, December 2022

Rate Hike Hype

While I’m still a tad skeptical, we will almost surely see the U.S. Federal Reserve Board (Fed) start the long process of ending its intrusion into the interest rate markets, by allowing short-term rates to rise starting on Wednesday. It will be the first time the Fed has raised rates since 2006, and for some it will mark the beginning of the final chapter of the Great Recession.

Since 2008, as most of us know, returns on short-term bonds have been at or near zero percent, which is a consequence of the Fed keeping the Federal Funds rate—the rate at which it will lend banks virtually unlimited amounts of money, short-term—at 0.125%. The average Fed Funds rate has historically been 3.5% to 4.0%, so this is a considerable amount of stimulus.

At the same time, the Fed has purchased more than $3.5 trillion worth of Treasury securities and home mortgage pools as part of its quantitative easing (QE) programs, bidding aggressively against much smaller buyers, which is another way of saying: forcing the rates on these bonds down closer to zero.

Pulling back out of these interventions is going to be tricky, in part because shifts in interest rates have a direct impact on a still-fragile U.S. economy (higher rates mean higher borrowing costs, potentially less corporate investment and lower profits), and even trickier because we don’t know how investors will react. In the past, the markets have panicked at the mere mention of a cutback in Fed involvement, and (more recently) have also risen on the same news, presumably because people drew encouragement from the confidence the Fed was showing in the strength and resilience of the U.S. economy.

There are also some tricky mechanical problems. The central bank will try to control the extent that short-term rates rise and fall by raising the interest it pays to banks for the reserves held at the Fed, and also cautiously raising the amount it pays money market funds for short-term trades known as “reverse repurchase agreements.” The mechanics are highly technical and complicated—and still unproven, although there are reports that the Fed has been conducting tests for the past two years.

As the markets react, either upwards or downwards, there are a few things to keep in mind. First, despite the headlines soon to be blaring from every financial section of every newspaper in the country, the rate is expected to move very modestly from .125% to .375%—clearly a small first step in a long journey toward the long-term average. After each step—prominently including this one—the Fed will evaluate the consequences before deciding to make future changes. If the economy slows, or if there are signs that inflation is falling below the Fed’s 2% annual target, it could delay the next move by months or even years. That caution greatly reduces the danger of any kind of serious economic pullback.

It’s also worth noting that the Fed has announced no plans to sell the nearly $4.2 trillion worth of various bonds—including the aforementioned Treasuries and mortgages—that it owns. At the moment, the bank is simply rolling over the portfolio, meaning it reinvests $21 billion a month as bonds mature. Eventually, most observers expect the reinvestment to stop and the Fed to allow the huge bond holdings to mature and fall off of its balance sheet. The fact that this is not being done currently reflects the exquisite degree of caution among Fed policymakers, who don’t want to rock the boat too fast or too hard.

Finally, some have wondered about the future of mortgage interest rates as the Fed begins a cautious exit from the bond markets. Interestingly, recent history shows that mortgages haven’t been especially influenced by changes in the benchmark rate. The last time we saw extremely low interest rates, after the tech bubble burst in the early 2000’s, the Fed brought its Fed funds rate down to 1%. It began raising rates by 0.25% a quarter starting in the summer of 2004, but over the next four months, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage actually fell from 6.3% to 5.58%. By the time of the last increase in the summer of 2006, mortgage rates were running at 6.68%, just a half-percent higher than they had been at the previous Fed funds rate low.

Nobody knows exactly what to expect when the announcement comes on Wednesday, but you can look for the investment markets to bounce around a bit more than usual, and economists—including the teams employed by the Fed—to examine every scrap of data about the impact on the economy over the next quarter. At that time, Fed policymakers will face another decision, and there is no reason to expect them to be less cautious than they have been recently. For many of us, the rate rise should be reason for celebration, a sign that the long recession and period of economic uncertainty is finally starting—carefully—to be put in our rear view mirror.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch.

Sources:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/where-we-live/wp/2015/12/14/what-a-fed-rate-hike-could-mean-to-mortgage-borrowers/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/12/14/the-federal-reserve-will-likely-raise-interest-rates-this-week-this-is-what-happens-next/

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/12/14/this-week-december-13/77155714/

The MoneyGeek thanks guest writer Bob Veres for his contribution to this post